History and Longevity (with Will Eden)

Clearer Thinking with Spencer Greenberg 2024年07月17日

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本篇文章探讨了历史学习的益处，帝国衰败的原因，以及衰老与帝国衰败之间的类比。文章还探讨了市场效率假设的准确性，以及催化市场对资产进行“内在价值”评估的因素。

🤔 **历史学习的益处**：历史研究不仅可以帮助我们了解过去，还可以帮助我们理解现在，并为未来提供借鉴。通过学习历史，我们可以从过去的经验中吸取教训，避免重复错误，并更好地应对未来的挑战。历史研究可以帮助我们理解社会、政治、经济等方面的变化规律，从而更好地预测未来。

⏳ **帝国衰败的原因**：帝国的衰败通常是多种因素共同作用的结果，包括经济衰退、社会动荡、政治腐败、军事力量下降、外部入侵等。帝国的衰败是一个复杂的过程，没有一个单一的答案可以解释所有帝国的衰败。

🧬 **衰老与帝国衰败的类比**：衰老是一个自然的过程，所有生物都会经历衰老。帝国的衰败也可以被视为一个类似的过程，随着时间的推移，帝国也会经历衰退，最终走向衰败。衰老与帝国衰败之间存在一些共同点，例如，随着时间的推移，它们的复杂性会增加，它们对环境的适应能力会下降，它们更容易受到外部因素的影响。

📈 **市场效率假设的准确性**：市场效率假设认为，市场价格反映了所有可获得的信息。然而，现实情况并非如此，市场价格往往受到情绪、行为偏差、信息不对称等因素的影响。市场效率假设的准确性取决于市场信息的透明度、市场参与者的理性程度以及市场结构等因素。

💰 **催化市场对资产进行“内在价值”评估的因素**：市场对资产的“内在价值”评估通常受到多种因素的影响，例如，经济状况、行业发展趋势、企业盈利能力、投资者情绪、市场流动性等。当市场发生重大变化时，例如，经济衰退、政策调整、技术突破等，市场往往会重新评估资产的价值。

🧠 **市场的理性程度**：市场并非完全理性，市场参与者的行为往往受到情绪、认知偏差、信息不对称等因素的影响。市场的情绪波动和行为偏差会造成市场价格的波动，导致市场效率降低。

💪 **抗衰老研究的最新进展**：抗衰老研究是一个充满希望的领域，近年来取得了一些重大进展。研究人员正在探索各种方法来延缓衰老，例如，基因疗法、药物治疗、生活方式干预等。尽管抗衰老研究面临着许多挑战，但未来前景十分光明。

🏋️ **有益的压力源**：适度的压力对身体是有益的，可以增强身体的适应能力，提高抗逆性。然而，过度的压力则会对身体造成损害。

🤔 **Laron综合征**：Laron综合征是一种遗传性疾病，患者缺乏生长激素。研究表明，Laron综合征患者的寿命与正常人无异，但患癌症和糖尿病的风险较低。这一发现表明，生长激素的减少可能对寿命有积极的影响。

💡 **结论**：历史、衰老和帝国的兴衰都是复杂的现象，需要我们进行深入的研究和思考。通过学习历史，我们可以更好地理解现在和未来。抗衰老研究正在取得进展，未来有望延长人类的寿命。

🧠 **思考**：我们该如何利用历史的经验教训，更好地应对未来挑战？抗衰老研究的伦理问题如何解决？

🤔 **思考**：我们该如何利用历史的经验教训，更好地应对未来挑战？抗衰老研究的伦理问题如何解决？

Read the full transcript here.

What are the benefits of studying history? How do we find useful historical analyses? Can learning about history save us from repeating it? Is America decaying as a nation, empire, and/or leading world power? Generally speaking, what causes empires to fail? Is the aging and decay experienced by organic bodies analogous to the aging and decay experienced by an empire (or by any complex system, for that matter)? What are all the reasons organisms age, decay, and die? What are the most promising avenues of exploration in longevity research? What kind of stressors on our bodies are beneficial? How accurate is the efficient market hypothesis? What kinds of catalysts force a market to value assets at their "intrinsic" value? How rational are markets?

William Eden is currently an entrepreneur-in-residence at biotech founder and investor Errik Anderson's family office, Ulysses Diversified. Previously, he worked with Peter Thiel for six years and jointly led the Life Science Investments group at Thiel Capital focused on early-stage breakthrough biomedical technologies. His previous roles include the Chief Analytics Officer of Azumio, a digital health startup, and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York during the 2008 global financial crisis. His Twitter handle is @WilliamAEden, and he and his wife have additional essays and podcasts and more at their blog.

NOTE: After the recording, Will contacted us with the following correction. There is a family lineage with a congenital growth hormone deficiency called Laron Syndrome that lives in villages in Ecuador, but he had incorrectly identified them as indigenous people. They actually migrated there from Spain, where other members of the family still live with the same genetic mutation. They suffer from fewer diseases of aging like cancer and diabetes, but their lifespan is indeed no longer than average due to vulnerability to accidents and injuries. This serves to demonstrate the tradeoff between longevity and robustness under free living conditions for these types of anti-aging interventions.

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