Clearer Thinking with Spencer Greenberg 2024年07月17日
How huge a deal is climate change, really? (with Diana Ürge-Vorsatz and Misha Glouberman)
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本文探讨了气候变化的真正影响程度,如何衡量其负面效应,气候专家与超级预测者的预测差异,以及当前气候问题中哪些是确定的,哪些还处于推测或研究之中。同时,文章也讨论了如何在不变得防御性的情况下,就这些话题进行交流。

🌍 气候变化的衡量标准:文章探讨了使用何种度量标准来评估气候变化的严重性,指出需要统一的度量来理解其影响。

🔮 专家与超级预测者的分歧:比较了气候专家和超级预测者对未来气候变化的预测,分析了两者之间的差异和可能的原因。

🧩 确定性与不确定性:文章列出了在气候变化问题上我们目前可以确定的部分,以及那些还处于科学探索和假设阶段的内容。

🔍 可信信息的来源:讨论了如何寻找关于气候变化的可靠信息,以及如何辨别信息来源的可靠性。

🗣️ 建设性的对话:提供了在不引起对方防御性的情况下,如何就气候变化问题进行有效沟通的策略。

Read the full transcript here.

How huge a deal is climate change, really? What's the right metric for determining how bad climate change effects will be? How do the forecasts made by climate experts differ from those made by superforecasters? Which pieces of the climate change puzzle are we absolutely sure about right now, and which pieces are still speculative or under investigation? Where can we find trustworthy information about climate change? How can we navigate conversations about these topics without becoming defensive?

Diana Ürge-Vorsatz is a professor at the Central European University in Vienna, and also Vice Chair of Working Group III (Mitigation) in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – the UN's science panel on climate change. She has a PhD from the University of California (Los Angeles and Berkeley) in Environmental Sciences and Engineering. Diana has over 100 peer-reviewed publications and has been serving on a wide range of academic and corporate advisory and governing bodies, including the UK Energy Research Center (UKERC), European Climate Foundation, Austrian Climate and Energy Fund (Klien), McKinsey, RWE, European Research Council, and IIASA. She regularly provides expert analysis related to environmental issues to the media, including BBC World News, BBC4, BBC World Service, Euronews, RTL, TRT, NTV, ITV. Diana is a proud mother of 7 children and a national champion in Orienteering. She lives with her family in Budapest, Hungary. Follow her on Twitter at @dianaurge or on Instagram at @dr_diana_urgevorsatz.

Misha Glouberman is a consultant who helps companies get unstuck on all sorts of issues, ranging from retention problems, to underperforming teams, to creating collaborative cultures across silos and in hybrid workplaces. He does this by helping people talk to each other in ways that are effective, authentic, and human. He hosts the Trampoline Hall Lectures in Toronto and is the co-author, with Sheila Heti, of The Chairs Are Where The People Go. He does lots of online events, so join his email list to learn more about them. You can also find him on Twitter, LinkedIn, and his website, mishaglouberman.com. (NOTE: Misha was on our podcast back in episode 109!)

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气候变化 影响评估 科学预测 信息来源 沟通策略
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