Clearer Thinking with Spencer Greenberg 2024年07月16日
Separating quantum computing hype from reality (with Scott Aaronson)
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量子计算作为一种新兴技术,其强大的计算能力引发了对于现有加密技术安全的担忧。本文探讨了量子计算机破解RSA加密的可能性、量子计算机相较于传统计算机的优势、以及当前市场上量子计算解决方案的真实性。同时,文章也讨论了科学家如何应对关于量子计算的误解,以及是否应该夸张其发展现状以吸引更多投资和人才。

🔍量子计算能力:量子计算机拥有破解现有加密算法的潜力,尤其是RSA加密,但具体何时能实现仍未知。

🚀量子优势:在处理特定任务时,量子计算机将显著优于传统计算机,尤其是在复杂系统模拟和优化问题上。

🏗️市场现状:目前市场上宣称提供量子计算解决方案的公司,其实际技术成熟度和应用范围需要谨慎评估。

🔬科学家的角色:科学家应积极辟谣,普及量子计算知识,以减少公众的误解和错误信息。

🎓职业选择:相较于AI领域的蓬勃发展,量子计算领域是否值得投身,是值得探讨的问题。

Read the full transcript here.

What exactly is quantum computing? How much should we worry about the possibility that quantum computing will break existing cryptography tools? When will a quantum computer with enough horsepower to crack RSA likely appear? On what kinds of tasks will quantum computers likely perform better than classical computers? How legitimate are companies that are currently selling quantum computing solutions? How can scientists help to fight misinformation and misunderstandings about quantum computing? To what extent should the state of the art be exaggerated with the aim of getting people excited about the possibilities the technology might afford and encouraging them to invest in research or begin a career in the field? Is now a good time to go into the field (especially compared to other similar options, like going into the booming AI field)?

Scott Aaronson is Schlumberger Chair of Computer Science at the University of Texas at Austin and founding director of its Quantum Information Center, currently on leave at OpenAI to work on theoretical foundations of AI safety. He received his bachelor's from Cornell University and his PhD from UC Berkeley. Before coming to UT Austin, he spent nine years as a professor in Electrical Engineering and Computer Science at MIT. Aaronson's research in theoretical computer science has focused mainly on the capabilities and limits of quantum computers. His first book, Quantum Computing Since Democritus, was published in 2013 by Cambridge University Press. He received the National Science Foundation's Alan T. Waterman Award, the United States PECASE Award, the Tomassoni-Chisesi Prize in Physics, and the ACM Prize in Computing; and he is a Fellow of the ACM and the AAAS. Find out more about him at scottaaronson.blog.

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量子计算 加密技术 市场现状 科学家责任 职业选择
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