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Comparative Analysis of Time Series Foundation Models for Demographic Forecasting: Enhancing Predictive Accuracy in US Population Dynamics
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本文研究利用时间序列基础模型预测美国人口变化,对比传统模型,在六州测试中表现优异,尤其对少数族裔数据稀疏情况下的预测效果显著,为政策制定提供参考。

arXiv:2508.11680v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Demographic shifts, influenced by globalization, economic conditions, geopolitical events, and environmental factors, pose significant challenges for policymakers and researchers. Accurate demographic forecasting is essential for informed decision-making in areas such as urban planning, healthcare, and economic policy. This study explores the application of time series foundation models to predict demographic changes in the United States using datasets from the U.S. Census Bureau and Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED). We evaluate the performance of the Time Series Foundation Model (TimesFM) against traditional baselines including Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), and Linear Regression. Our experiments across six demographically diverse states demonstrate that TimesFM achieves the lowest Mean Squared Error (MSE) in 86.67% of test cases, with particularly strong performance on minority populations with sparse historical data. These findings highlight the potential of pre-trained foundation models to enhance demographic analysis and inform proactive policy interventions without requiring extensive task-specific fine-tuning.

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时间序列模型 人口预测 政策制定
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