Fortune | FORTUNE 5小时前
BlackRock’s Rick Rieder says this is the ‘best investing environment ever’ — he’s conveniently in the running for next Fed chairman
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BlackRock首席投资官Rick Rieder对当前投资环境持乐观态度,认为这是“有史以来最好的投资环境”。他指出,股市技术面表现强劲,场外现金充裕,股票回购量大,相对于IPO发行量而言需求强劲。在固定收益方面,他认为当前收益率水平能够支持构建高达6.5%-7%收益率的投资组合。Rieder还认为美联储应该降低利率,并预测9月份可能会降息,理由是就业市场出现一些疲软迹象。他同时强调,美联储在制定政策时需要“尊重”关税成本带来的通胀影响,这可能让他成为一个独立的政策制定者。

📈 **看好当前投资环境:** BlackRock首席投资官Rick Rieder认为,当前经济形势为投资提供了绝佳机会。他特别提到股市技术面表现强劲,大量现金和股票回购活动表明了市场需求旺盛,而IPO发行量相对较低,供需关系有利。他认为,在固定收益市场,当前的收益率水平(可达6.5%-7%)足以构建吸引人的投资组合。

📉 **建议美联储降息:** Rieder公开表示,他认为美联储应该降低利率,并预测9月份可能会采取降息行动。他指出,就业市场出现了一些疲软迹象,例如招聘和职位空缺的“松动”,表明劳动力市场正在放缓,这为降息提供了空间。他认为美联储可以更快速、更积极地降低利率。

🏦 **对利率工具的看法:** Rieder对当前利率工具在控制通胀方面的有效性提出了质疑。他认为,除了对住房市场和低收入借款人有显著影响外,利率工具对于大多数公司资本支出融资的作用不大。他指出,高利率对低收入借款人造成了伤害,而高储蓄的老年人则受益于此。他认为降低利率将对住房市场产生积极影响,并可能使收益率曲线趋于陡峭。

⚖️ **独立性与政治考量:** Rieder在接受采访时提到,美联储在制定政策时需要“尊重”关税成本可能带来的通胀影响。这一表态被视为其潜在的独立性标志,因为这与特朗普政府强调外国政府将承担关税成本的说法有所不同。分析师可能会将此视为他在政治言论之外保持政策独立性的证明,尽管特朗普政府可能不乐见其对关税通胀的看法。

BlackRock’s chief investment officer for global fixed income, Rick Rieder, is bullish. He says the landscape has never looked so good for investing and believes Jerome Powell should be cutting interest rates.

Rieder also happens to be in the running for Fed chairman, according to numerous reports.

While the White House will be mindful of the fact that Jerome Powell’s successor will need to be a credible economic force, President Trump has also been clear that the next chairman will be more dovish than the current.

Trump has been waging a one-sided war against the Fed since winning the Oval Office (and indeed began criticizing Powell even before the election), aggressively lobbying the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to cut rates.

Having awarded the Fed chairman the nickname of “Too Late Powell,” Trump has turned his attention to Powell’s replacement when his term ends in May 2026. Trump has said he will name that individual shortly, potentially in a move to shift the market’s attention to the incumbent, dovish power.

Rieder appears on a list of candidates in the running for that job, according to reports from CNBC and Fox Business.

And the CIO is saying many of the things the Trump camp will want to hear. Speaking to CNBC’s ‘Closing Bell’ yesterday, Rieder said a few “extraordinary things” in the economy had convinced him that now is the “best investing environment ever.”

“First of all the technicals and equities are crazy,” Rieder said. “[The] amount of cash on the sideline, the amount of buybacks relative to the IPO calendar—i.e. the demand versus supply—is pretty extraordinary.

“Then you take the other side of it in fixed income—I think the Fed can cut rates but until then—you got yield levels, you can create a portfolio with a 6.5%, 7% yield. That’s pretty good.”

Rieder added that volatility in equities is relatively low at the moment, minimizing downside risks.

As well as bullish signals on the Wall Street side (a token of approval which President Trump has demonstrated is important to him) Rieder is also confident of the need to cut the base rate from its current level of 4.25% to 4.5%.

“I think it’s almost a given that they cut [in September],” Rieder said. “You’re seeing some sogginess around job hires, around job openings, … more slack coming into the labor market. I still think the funds rate, you can get it down faster and more aggressively than where they are today.”

Rieder did say the Fed will have to remain “respectful” of tariff costs. Markets will like this if he wins the Fed role, as they too are pricing in some level of inflation as a result of the White House’s import cost regime. It will also be a check beside his name in the eyes of analysts, who will see it as a mark of independence from the political rhetoric, which is to insist that foreign governments will “eat” the hikes.

President Trump, on the other hand, won’t like hearing talk of tariff inflation.

In a note previously reported by Fortune, Goldman Sachs economist Elsie Peng wrote the majority of tariff costs are likely to be passed through to consumers. This sparked fury from President Trump, who urged Goldman’s CEO David Solomon to “get a new economist” or consider resigning.

Interest rates aren’t ‘terribly significant’

The Fed sticks closely to its dual mandate of inflation at a target rate of 2% and maximum employment. The base interest rate is its lever to control these two factors.

Breaking with tradition, Rieder suggested the base rate isn’t that useful when it comes to controlling price rises.

He justified: “The interest rate tool doesn’t do a lot today. You think about how companies finance CapEx … you’re not borrowing. The banks are asset liability. The interest rate tool is not that important except for a couple of big factors. What it does to housing, and you look at mortgage applications, building permits, housing starts, new home sales—it’s stuck.

“The mortgage rate has to come down, you drop the funds rate, there’s some yield curve (steepening) that probably happens. And then the other side of it is the low income people who are borrowers. They are getting hurt by this, high savings older people are actually benefitting from the high rates.”

BlackRock declined Fortune’s request for comment.

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Rick Rieder 美联储 降息 投资环境 利率政策
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