Fortune | FORTUNE 7小时前
What CEOs really think about Nvidia and AMD’s China export deal: ‘Brilliant, a tariff that we don’t have to pay’
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特朗普政府的贸易政策,特别是对科技行业的限制措施,引发了美国商界领袖的广泛关注和讨论。尽管部分企业领袖认为这些政策有助于推动美国制造业发展,并为美国带来经济利益,但也有不少人对这些措施的国家安全影响、对未来贸易协定的冲击以及资金的去向表示担忧。例如,对中国出口的限制是否会影响国家安全,以及这些限制措施所产生的额外收入将如何被使用,都成为了业界关注的焦点。同时,全球贸易格局的演变,如贸易伙伴建立“壁垒”和“集团”的趋势,也使得关税政策的长期影响变得更加复杂。这篇文章反映了在当前多变的全球经济环境下,企业界对政府经济政策的审慎观察和深度思考。

💰 **贸易政策的经济影响**:特朗普政府的贸易政策,如对特定科技产品的出口限制,被视为一种“新方法”,旨在重塑贸易规范。虽然部分企业领袖认为这证明了美国对本土制造业的承诺,并可能带来经济效益,但也有观点指出,出口费用和关税最终会转嫁给美国消费者和企业,导致成本上升,而政府则获得额外收入。例如,文章提到仅关税预计每月可带来500亿美元,而Nvidia/AMD的交易可能使财政部明年增加40亿美元收入。这引发了关于这些资金将如何使用的讨论,是用于偿还债务、惠及消费者,还是有其他用途。

🛡️ **国家安全与信任的潜在风险**:文章提出了对贸易限制措施可能引发的国家安全问题的担忧。这类限制通常是为了解决国家安全顾虑而非增加财政收入。有观点质疑,经济激励措施是否会使安全优先事项“搁置”。文章还指出,盟友历史上能够获得他国无法获得的军事装备和敏感技术,这种政策是否会进一步侵蚀盟友间的信任,是一个值得深思的问题。

📈 **对未来贸易协定的影响**:许多首席执行官认为关税将长期存在,因为美国的贸易伙伴正在建立自己的“围墙”和“集团”。这预示着全球贸易格局可能变得更加碎片化和区域化。文章中提到,盟友之间在获取军事和敏感技术方面的历史性优势,以及当前贸易政策可能对这种格局产生的影响,都表明了未来贸易关系的不确定性,以及对现有国际经济秩序的潜在挑战。

🤝 **企业界对政策的不同解读**:文章展示了企业界对特朗普政府贸易政策的不同反应。一方面,有领导者视其为“绝妙”的举措,例如一位美国CEO称之为“我们不必支付的关税”,并认为这证明了总统对美国制造业的承诺。另一方面,也存在质疑的声音,例如对国家安全影响的担忧,以及对政策实际执行和长期后果的审慎态度。这种多元化的解读反映了政策在不同行业和企业中的具体影响差异。

Corey duBrowa, who is global CEO of communications giant Burson, described the deal as “another novel approach that’s being implemented by the Trump administration as they continue to rewrite trade norms and practices.” 

A veteran leader in the manufacturing space described the deal as proof of Trump’s commitment to American manufacturing, adding that the cost was likely worth it. Another U.S.-based CEO called it “brilliant, a tariff that we don’t have to pay.”

But some also raised questions:  

What does this mean for national security? Such restrictions are designed to address national security concerns, not raise revenue. Governments typically only make money when penalizing those who break the rules. Could financial incentives put security priorities on hold? Allies are historically able to buy military equipment and sensitive technologies that others are not. Could this further erode trust?

How will this impact trade deals? Many CEOs believe tariffs are here to stay, as America’s trading partners create their own walled fortresses and blocs. Allies are historically able to buy military equipment and sensitive technologies that others are not. Could this further erode trust?

Where will the money go? Export fees and tariffs mean higher costs for U.S. consumers and companies, and higher revenue for the government. Tariffs alone are expected to bring in $50 billion a month. The Nvidia/AMD deals could add another $4 billion to Treasury coffers next year. Will that be used to pay down debt, help consumers, or be spent some other way?

Contact CEO Daily via Diane Brady at diane.brady@fortune.com

Top news

U.S.-China trade deal pushed back another 90 days

Both countries will pause tariffs on each other in favor of a 10% levy while negotiations continue. There are signs that President Trump and President Xi Jinping will meet before the deal is signed. The previous deal lowered tariffs from their peak rate of 145% to 30%.

​​Trump’s last-minute demand for Nvidia cash

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang had been working for months behind the scenes to create a deal that would allow his company to continue to sell H20 chips to China. The deal included a $500 billion U.S. investment promise and the notion that China would remain independent on Nvidia’s less powerful chips. And then President Trump demanded money, the WSJ reports.

Intel CEO has positive meeting with Trump

Last week, the president demanded the resignation of Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan because of his history of Chinese investments. Yesterday, Trump called his meeting with the executive “a very interesting one.” “His success and rise is an amazing story,” Trump said. The company said it would work with the White House to “restore this great American company.”

President Trump prepares to meet Putin without Europe or Ukraine

The meeting will deliver to Putin exactly what he wants—the visual that the key parties in the negotiations are Moscow and Washington not Kyiv or Brussels.

Reality check: There is no sign of imminent peace in Ukraine

Russian battlefield maneuvers show they are preparing yet more offensives inside Ukraine. Meanwhile, Europe is building for war: Satellite photos show defense facilities have added 7 million square metres of new industrial development at 150 sites in 37 countries, the FT reports.

Stifel analysts warn of stagflation

Analysts from investment bank Stifel warn in a new research note that a slowdown in consumer spending and fading effects of COVID-era stimulus have left the U.S. economy vulnerable to stagflation, predicting a selloff of 10% or more in the S&P 500. Despite seemingly strong account balances, underlying weakness and diminishing savings signal that the current market highs are built on a 'money illusion' that may soon dissipate.

Moody’s Mark Zandi on tariff revenue

Moody’s Chief Economist Mark Zandi believes tariffs will be under intense political pressure to be cut in any recession, making them unreliable as a long-term funding source. Though President Donald Trump’s tariffs are generating revenue for the federal government at an annual rate of about $300 billion, most tariff costs are being passed on to consumers as higher prices, acting effectively as a sales tax, according to Zandi.

In other news:Elon Musk threatened to sue Apple for not giving prominence to his Grok apps in the App Store … A federal judge declined to release grand jury transcripts from the case against Ghislaine Maxwell, the imprisoned ex-partner of Jeffrey Epstein … Trump appointed E.J. Antoni, chief economist at the Heritage Foundation, to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Antoni is one of the authors of Project 2025 and a longtime critic of the BLS.

The markets

S&P 500 futures were flat this morning, premarket, after the index closed down 0.25% on Friday. STOXX Europe 600 was up 0.26 in early trading. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 was up 0.27% in early trading. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 2.15%, hitting a new all-time high. China’s CSI 300 was up 0.52%. The South Korea KOSPI was down 0.53%. India’s Nifty 50 was up 0.17%. Bitcoin declined to $118.9K.

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Southeast Asia’s cities at ‘high risk’ of flooding and heatwaves, thanks to climate change by Lionel Lim

CEO Daily is compiled and edited by Joey Abrams and Jim Edwards.

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特朗普政府 贸易政策 国家安全 经济影响 企业界观点
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