This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial subreddit, Discord, and bulletin board, and in-person meetups around the world. Most content is free, some is subscriber only; you can subscribe here. Also:
1: This is your last chance to apply for this year’s ACX Grants. Deadline is end-of-day PST this Friday.
2: Anthropic is hiring a research engineer for the Model Welfare team - ie figuring out whether their AIs are conscious or have feelings or something, and if so how to make sure they’re okay. Candidates should have expertise in ML and maybe philosophy/neuroscience/cogsci. Job is office-remote hybrid with the office in SF, salary is $315K+, non-Americans are welcome to apply and see if Anthropic can sponsor their visa. Learn more / apply here.
3: UK AISI is looking to distribute £15m in AI alignment funding, for projects that need anywhere from a $100K pre-seed up to $1-2m. Collaborators included Anthropic, DeepMind, etc. See their priority areas and apply here by September 10th.
4: In the post on embryo selection, I mentioned that Herasight criticized Orchid's Alzheimer's predictor. A representative of Orchid reached out to say they stood by their methodology:
Herasight seems to be misreading our whitepaper. The “Performant Alzheimer’s disease risk stratification” section is meant to show the kind of performance patients can expect—people in the top 5% have an OR of 5.80, top 3% is 7.35, and top 1% is 11.69. This odds ratio is what is used to present embryo disease risk to patients and does not include covariates. The “Comparison to Published Benchmarks” section is just about comparing our models to others in the literature. To allow a head to head comparison, we used the same metric (AUC) and covariates as the paper we’re comparing against. However, to avoid future confusion, we’ve just added a sentence clarifying the AUC without covariates (0.724).
They also state that Herasight, like themselves, has only validated the predictors where there’s enough data (e.g. not schizophrenia), and they object to Herasight claiming superiority in this area.
5: New subscribers-only post - Dream Book Review: The Deal With Trauma. “Last week, I had an unusually vivid dream about writing a book review for ACX. When I woke up, I remembered the review almost word-for-word. In some sense this is a best case scenario - write posts in my sleep, and spend my waking hours relaxing on the beach - but unfortunately the book I was reviewing doesn’t exist and most of what I say about it doesn’t make sense. Still, I’m posting [it] here.”