Fortune | FORTUNE 17小时前
Fed Governor Bowman says weak jobs report backs her view for 3 rate cuts this year
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一位美联储高级官员表示,本月疲软的美国就业市场报告增强了她对降低利率的信心。该官员在一场银行家会议上指出,最新的劳动力市场数据支持其年内三次降息的观点。尽管此前多数官员投票维持利率不变,但她认为特朗普的关税不会对通胀造成持续冲击,且通胀正逐步接近美联储2%的目标。美联储在维持就业市场强劲与控制通胀之间面临挑战,降息可能刺激经济但有推高通胀的风险。市场普遍预计,鉴于低于预期的就业报告,美联储将在九月会议上降息。

💰 美联储官员Michelle Bowman认为,近期疲软的美国就业报告支持年内三次降息的观点。她指出,初请失业金人数和非农就业人数的下降,以及前期就业数据的下修,都表明劳动力市场可能正在降温,为降息提供了空间。

📈 Bowman对通胀前景表示乐观,认为特朗普的关税不会对通胀造成持续的冲击,通胀正朝着美联储2%的目标迈进。尽管通胀在疫情后有所回落,但仍高于目标水平,美联储在此问题上持谨慎态度。

⚖️ 美联储面临在刺激就业和控制通胀之间的艰难权衡。降息能够降低借贷成本,提振经济活动,但也可能加剧通胀压力。鲍曼的观点反映了部分官员倾向于优先考虑经济增长,即使存在一定的通胀风险。

📉 市场普遍预期,鉴于低于预期的就业数据,美联储可能在下一次会议上采取降息行动。此前,尽管有两位官员投票支持降息,但多数官员仍选择维持利率不变,等待更多经济数据。

🏛️ 文章还提及了美国总统特朗普对低利率的呼吁,以及他有机会任命新的美联储理事,这可能对未来的货币政策产生影响。特朗普政府的关税政策也可能成为影响美联储决策的因素之一。

A top official at the Federal Reserve said Saturday that this month’s stunning, weaker-than-expected report on the U.S. job market is strengthening her belief that interest rates should be lower.

Michelle Bowman was one of two Fed officials who voted a week and a half ago in favor of cutting interest rates. Such a move could help boost the economy by making it cheaper for people to borrow money to buy a house or a car, but it could also threaten to push inflation higher.

Bowman and a fellow dissenter lost out after nine other Fed officials voted to keep interest rates steady, as the Fed has been doing all year. The Fed’s chair, Jerome Powell, has been adamant that he wants to wait for more data about how President Donald Trump’s tariffs are affecting inflation before the Fed makes its next move.

At a speech during a bankers’ conference in Colorado on Saturday, Bowman said that “the latest labor market data reinforce my view” that the Fed should cut interest rates three times this year. The Fed has only three meetings left on the schedule in 2025.

The jobs report that arrived last week, only a couple of days after the Fed voted on interest rates, showed that employers hired far fewer workers last month than economists expected. It also said that hiring in prior months was much lower than initially thought.

On inflation, meanwhile, Bowman said she is getting more confident that Trump’s tariffs “will not present a persistent shock to inflation” and sees it moving closer to the Fed’s 2% target. Inflation has come down substantially since hitting a peak above 9% after the pandemic, but it has been stubbornly remaining above 2%.

The Fed’s job is to keep the job market strong, while keeping a lid on inflation. Its challenge is that it has one main tool to affect both those areas, and helping one by moving interest rates up or down often means hurting the other.

A fear is that Trump’s tariffs could box in the Federal Reserve by sticking the economy in a worst-case scenario called “stagflation,” where the economy stagnates but inflation is high. The Fed has no good tool to fix that, and it would likely have to prioritize either the job market or inflation before helping the other.

On Wall Street, expectations are that the Fed will have to cut interest rates at its next meeting in September after the U.S. jobs report came in so much below economists’ expectations.

Trump has been calling angrily for lower interest rates, often personally insulting Powell while doing so. He has the opportunity to add another person to the Fed’s board of governors after an appointee of former President Joe Bidenstepped down recently.

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美联储 降息 就业报告 通货膨胀 货币政策
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