Fortune | FORTUNE 15小时前
A new bull market has begun and is still in the early stages, so buy the dips, top Wall Street analyst says
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尽管对美国经济衰退的担忧加剧,摩根士丹利的分析师迈克·威尔逊却认为,美国经济已度过了所谓的“滚动衰退”,并已进入新的牛市。他指出,四月份的股市抛售标志着熊市的结束,而近期资本市场的活跃表现进一步印证了这一判断。虽然市场短期内可能出现波动,但这种整固是健康的。他预测,尽管第三季度可能出现回调,但投资者应抓住机会逢低买入,并预计标普500指数有望在2026年中期达到7200点。这一乐观情绪也得到了其他华尔街分析师的呼应,他们认为贸易协议的签署缓和了关税担忧,并且强劲的盈利、AI应用、弱势美元以及预期的降息都为股市上涨提供了支撑。零售投资者积极抄底的行为也助推了市场的上涨,但专家提醒,抄底需谨慎,避免盲目追涨。

📈 摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师迈克·威尔逊提出,美国经济已从过去的“滚动衰退”中走出,进入了一个新的牛市。他认为,四月份的股市抛售是熊市的终结,而近期资本市场的活跃表现,如标普500指数的V型反弹,印证了这一结论。他预测,尽管短期内可能存在波动,但这是牛市的正常表现,并鼓励投资者在回调时积极买入。

🚀 威尔逊对后市持乐观态度,预测标普500指数到2026年中期可能达到7200点。他列举了支撑这一预测的几个关键因素,包括强劲的企业盈利、人工智能技术的广泛应用、美元走弱、特朗普政府的减税政策、被压抑的消费需求以及对2026年初美联储降息的预期。这些因素共同营造了一个有利的投资环境。

🌟 华尔街其他分析师也普遍看好股市前景,部分原因是贸易协议的签署缓解了对关税的担忧。例如,奥本海默首席投资策略师约翰·斯托尔兹福斯上调了其对标普500指数今年的目标价。如果标普500指数达到7100点,将是连续第三年上涨超过20%,这标志着自1990年代末以来未曾出现的强劲增长态势。

💡 散户投资者在市场下跌时积极买入股票,为市场反弹提供了动力,即使机构投资者持谨慎态度。这种“逢低买入”的策略带来了丰厚回报,但同时也导致市场回调的时间越来越短,因为投资者害怕错过机会而迅速涌入。然而,专家也警告,盲目抄底可能导致“接飞刀”的风险,即买入后股票继续下跌,因此,投资者应更加审慎,进行充分分析以寻找真正具有价值的投资标的。

There’s growing concern that the U.S. may be headed for a recession, but Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson has said that the economy was actually in a “rolling recession” for the past three years.

It’s over now, and the epic stock market selloff in April, when President Donald Trump shocked investors with his “Liberation Day” tariffs, marked the end of a bear market, he told Bloomberg TV on Thursday.

“Now we’re in a new bull market, and capital markets activity is just another sign that that analysis, or that conclusion, is probably correct,” he added.

Wilson, who is Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. equity strategist and chief investment officer, said any volatility and consolidation along the way are normal, noting that it’s actually preferable to a market that goes straight up like in 2020.

In fact, the stock market has seen some straight lines lately in form of a V-shaped recovery. At its lows in April, the S&P 500 had tumbled so precipitously and so quickly that it was down nearly 20% from its prior high. Since then, the index has shot up 30%, hitting fresh records and leaving it up almost 9% so far this year.

But Wilson predicted some stock market moderation in the third quarter, potentially offering a chance to double down on the rally.

“I want to be very clear: it’s still early in the new bull market, so you want to be buying these dips,” he said.

Last month, Wilson said in a note that the S&P 500 could reach 7,200 by mid-2026, explaining that he is starting to lean closer to his more optimistic “bull case” scenario.

He cited strong earnings as well as AI adoption, the weak dollar, Trump’s tax cuts, pent-up demand, and expectations for Fed rate cuts in early 2026.

Wilson’s view is part of an increased sense of optimism among other top Wall Street analysts as fears over tariffs ease with the signing of several trade deals.

Last month, Oppenheimer chief investment strategist John Stoltzfus hiked his S&P 500 price target for this year to 7,100 from 5,950, reinstating the outlook he initially made in December 2024.

If the S&P 500 hits 7,100 this year, it would represent a gain of about 21% for 2025, marking a third straight year with a surge of more than 20%. That hasn’t happened since the late 1990s, when the U.S. economy and the stock market boomed.

Meanwhile, retail investors have relentless bought stocks whenever they have dipped, helping turbo-charge the market even as institutional investors have taken a less aggressive stance.

Buying the dip has paid off so well that it’s actually getting harder to do as more investors try to get ahead of the crowd, fueling faster rebounds.

“The half life of dips is getting ever shorter,” Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, told CNBC on Tuesday. “And I think because people are so afraid of missing the dip, they basically rush in at the slightest sign of one.”

He cautioned against reflexively buying dips just because a stock is down, saying investors should instead be more judicious and apply some analysis to find real value.

Still, the risk is that dip-buyers “catch a falling knife” in the process, leaving them with stocks that continue on a long-term decline.

“The market has a way of making the maximum number of people wrong at the most inopportune time,” Sosnick said.

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