Fortune | FORTUNE 21小时前
Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer privately warns Trump that tariffs could cause severe economic damage in key swing state
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密歇根州州长惠特默与美国总统特朗普举行会晤,就潜在的关税对州经济,特别是对汽车行业的负面影响进行沟通。惠特默通过演示文稿强调了关税可能导致的工厂岗位流失、利润下降和价格上涨。尽管特朗普政府声称关税将振兴美国制造业,但汽车制造商和零部件供应商却面临着更高的进口税,这使得美国汽车在与德、日、韩等国的竞争中处于不利地位。惠特默之前的两次会晤曾为密歇根带来实际利益,但此次关于关税的沟通面临更大挑战,因为特朗普已将关税施加得更为激进。文章还引用了行业数据和高管的担忧,表明关税已对美国汽车公司造成了数亿美元的成本,并可能影响其在国内的再投资能力。

💡 州长惠特默采取了与众不同的策略,通过私人会议直接向特朗普总统陈述其州的经济担忧,尤其关注关税对密歇根州汽车产业的潜在损害。这次会晤的私密性在当前政治环境下尤为突出,显示了其作为2028年潜在总统候选人的政治考量。

📉 惠特默的演示文稿详细阐述了关税可能对密歇根州造成的经济打击,包括工厂失业、利润减少和物价上涨。她指出,关税使得美国汽车制造商在与外国竞争对手相比时处于劣势,例如,美国汽车零部件面临高达50%的关税,而德国、日本和韩国的车辆仅面临15%的关税。

📊 文章通过数据揭示了汽车产业对密歇根州经济的重要性,该州拥有庞大的汽车制造工厂和零部件供应商网络,支撑着近60万个制造业就业岗位。自2020年以来,与加拿大和墨西哥的贸易为密歇根带来了232亿美元的投资,这使得关税政策对该州经济的影响尤为关键。

💰 汽车制造商如通用汽车、福特和Stellantis已明确警告,关税将削减公司利润并损害其全球竞争力。例如,福特在第二季度报告了8亿美元的关税相关成本,通用汽车则为11亿美元。这些成本可能会阻碍其在新工厂上的再投资,而这恰恰是特朗普政府所倡导的目标。

📉 即使是小型供应商也感受到了压力,例如底特律Axle公司曾考虑关闭仓库并裁员100多名员工,这反映出市场现状是“谁能生存,而不是谁能繁荣”。密歇根州自特朗普重返白宫以来已失去7500个制造业工作岗位,凸显了关税政策的负面影响。

The Democrat came with a slide deck to make her points in a visual presentation. Just getting the meeting Tuesday with the Republican president was an achievement for someone viewed as a contender for her party’s White House nomination in 2028.

Whitmer’s strategy for dealing with Trump highlights the conundrum for her and other Democratic leaders as they try to protect the interests of their states while voicing their opposition to his agenda. It’s a dynamic that Whitmer has navigated much differently from many other Democratic governors.

The fact that Whitmer had “an opening to make direct appeals” in private to Trump was unique in this political moment, said Matt Grossman, a Michigan State University politics professor.

It was her third meeting with Trump at the White House since he took office in January. This one, however, was far less public than the time in April when Whitmer was unwittingly part of an impromptu news conference that embarrassed her so much she covered her face with a folder.

On Tuesday, she told the president that the economic damage from the tariffs could be severe in Michigan, a state that helped deliver him the White House in 2024. Whitmer also brought up federal support for recovery efforts after an ice storm and sought to delay changes to Medicaid.

Trump offered no specific commitments, according to people familiar with the private conversation who were not authorized to discuss it publicly and spoke only on condition of anonymity to describe it.

Whitmer is hardly the only one sounding the warning of the potentially damaging consequences, including factory job losses, lower profits and coming price increases, of the import taxes that Trump has said will be the economic salvation for American manufacturing.

White House spokesman Kush Desai that no other president “has taken a greater interest in restoring American auto industry dominance than President Trump.” Trade frameworks negotiated by the administration would open up the Japanese, Korean and European markets for vehicles made on assembly lines in Michigan, Desai said.

But the outreach Trump has preferred tends to be splashy presentations by tech CEOs. In the Oval Office on Wednesday, Apple CEO Tim Cook gave the president a customized glass plaque with a gold base as Cook promised $600 billion in investments. Trump claims to have brought in $17 trillion in investment commitments, although none of those numbers has surfaced yet in economic data.

Under his series of executive orders and trade frameworks, U.S. automakers face import taxes of 50% on steel and aluminum, 30% on parts from China and a top rate of 25% on goods from Canada and Mexico not covered under an existing 2020 trade agreement. That puts America’s automakers and parts suppliers at a disadvantage against German, Japanese and South Korean vehicles that only face a 15% import tax negotiated by Trump last month.

On top of that, Trump this past week threatened a 100% tariff on computer chips, which are an integral part of cars and trucks, though he would exclude companies that produce chips domestically from the tax.

Whitmer’s two earlier meetings with Trump resulted in gains for Michigan. But the tariffs represent a significantly broader request of a president who has imposed them even more aggressively in the face of criticism.

Materials in the presentation brought Whitmer to the meeting and obtained by The Associated Press noted how trade with Canada and Mexico has driven $23.2 billion in investment to Michigan since 2020.

General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis operate 50 factories across the state, while more than 4,000 facilities support the auto parts supply chain. Altogether, the sector supports nearly 600,000 manufacturing jobs, forming the backbone of Michigan’s economy.

Whitmer outlined the main points of the materials to Trump and left copies with his team.

To Grossman, the Michigan State professor, a key question is whether voters who expected to be helped by tariffs would react if Trump’s import taxes failed to deliver the promised economic growth.

“Everyone’s aware that Michigan is a critical swing state and the auto industry has outsized influence, not just directly, but symbolically,” Grossman said.

AP VoteCast found that Trump won Michigan in 2024 largely because two-thirds of its voters described the economic conditions as being poor or “not so good.” Roughly 70% of the voters in the state who felt negatively about the economy backed the Republican. The state was essentially split over whether tariffs were a positive, with Trump getting 76% of those voters who viewed them favorably.

The heads of General Motors, Ford and Stellantis have repeatedly warned the administration that the tariffs would cut company profits and undermine their global competitiveness. Their efforts have resulted in little more than a temporary, monthlong pause intended to give companies time to adjust. The reprieve did little to blunt the financial fallout.

In the second quarter alone, Ford reported $800 million in tariff-related costs, while GM said the import taxes cost it $1.1 billion. Those expenses could make it harder to reinvest in new domestic factories, a goal Trump has championed.

“We expect tariffs to be a net headwind of about $2 billion this year, and we’ll continue to monitor the developments closely and engage with policymakers to ensure U.S. autoworkers and customers are not disadvantaged by policy change,” Ford CEO Jim Farley said on his company’s earning call.

Since Trump returned to the White House, Michigan has lost 7,500 manufacturing jobs, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Smaller suppliers have felt the strain, too.

Detroit Axle, a family-run auto parts distributor, has been one of the more vocal companies in Michigan about the impact of the tariffs. The company initially announced it might have to shut down a warehouse and lay off more than 100 workers, but later said it would be able to keep the facility open, at least for now.

“Right now it’s a market of who is able to survive, it’s not a matter of who can thrive,” said Mike Musheinesh, owner of Detroit Axle.

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密歇根州长 特朗普 关税 汽车产业 经济影响
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