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EnergyPatchTST: Multi-scale Time Series Transformers with Uncertainty Estimation for Energy Forecasting
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本文提出EnergyPatchTST,一种针对能源预测的Patch Time Series Transformer扩展,通过多尺度特征提取、概率预测框架等创新,显著提高能源时间序列预测的准确性,为电力规划提供重要参考。

arXiv:2508.05454v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Accurate and reliable energy time series prediction is of great significance for power generation planning and allocation. At present, deep learning time series prediction has become the mainstream method. However, the multi-scale time dynamics and the irregularity of real data lead to the limitations of the existing methods. Therefore, we propose EnergyPatchTST, which is an extension of the Patch Time Series Transformer specially designed for energy forecasting. The main innovations of our method are as follows: (1) multi-scale feature extraction mechanism to capture patterns with different time resolutions; (2) probability prediction framework to estimate uncertainty through Monte Carlo elimination; (3) integration path of future known variables (such as temperature and wind conditions); And (4) Pre-training and Fine-tuning examples to enhance the performance of limited energy data sets. A series of experiments on common energy data sets show that EnergyPatchTST is superior to other commonly used methods, the prediction error is reduced by 7-12%, and reliable uncertainty estimation is provided, which provides an important reference for time series prediction in the energy field.

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EnergyPatchTST 能源预测 时间序列预测 深度学习 电力规划
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