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An Explainable Machine Learning Framework for Railway Predictive Maintenance using Data Streams from the Metro Operator of Portugal
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本文提出一种针对智能交通系统的实时数据驱动预测性维护解决方案,采用样本预处理、增量分类与机器学习模型,实现在线故障预测与可解释性分析,实验结果在F-measure和准确率上均达到98%以上。

arXiv:2508.05388v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: This work contributes to a real-time data-driven predictive maintenance solution for Intelligent Transportation Systems. The proposed method implements a processing pipeline comprised of sample pre-processing, incremental classification with Machine Learning models, and outcome explanation. This novel online processing pipeline has two main highlights: (i) a dedicated sample pre-processing module, which builds statistical and frequency-related features on the fly, and (ii) an explainability module. This work is the first to perform online fault prediction with natural language and visual explainability. The experiments were performed with the MetroPT data set from the metro operator of Porto, Portugal. The results are above 98 % for F-measure and 99 % for accuracy. In the context of railway predictive maintenance, achieving these high values is crucial due to the practical and operational implications of accurate failure prediction. In the specific case of a high F-measure, this ensures that the system maintains an optimal balance between detecting the highest possible number of real faults and minimizing false alarms, which is crucial for maximizing service availability. Furthermore, the accuracy obtained enables reliability, directly impacting cost reduction and increased safety. The analysis demonstrates that the pipeline maintains high performance even in the presence of class imbalance and noise, and its explanations effectively reflect the decision-making process. These findings validate the methodological soundness of the approach and confirm its practical applicability for supporting proactive maintenance decisions in real-world railway operations. Therefore, by identifying the early signs of failure, this pipeline enables decision-makers to understand the underlying problems and act accordingly swiftly.

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智能交通系统 预测性维护 机器学习
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