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Calibrating Biophysical Models for Grape Phenology Prediction via Multi-Task Learning
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本文提出一种结合多任务学习与循环神经网络的混合模型,用于葡萄物候预测,以提升精细化管理决策的准确性,实验表明该方法优于传统模型与基线深度学习方法。

arXiv:2508.03898v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Accurate prediction of grape phenology is essential for timely vineyard management decisions, such as scheduling irrigation and fertilization, to maximize crop yield and quality. While traditional biophysical models calibrated on historical field data can be used for season-long predictions, they lack the precision required for fine-grained vineyard management. Deep learning methods are a compelling alternative but their performance is hindered by sparse phenology datasets, particularly at the cultivar level. We propose a hybrid modeling approach that combines multi-task learning with a recurrent neural network to parameterize a differentiable biophysical model. By using multi-task learning to predict the parameters of the biophysical model, our approach enables shared learning across cultivars while preserving biological structure, thereby improving the robustness and accuracy of predictions. Empirical evaluation using real-world and synthetic datasets demonstrates that our method significantly outperforms both conventional biophysical models and baseline deep learning approaches in predicting phenological stages, as well as other crop state variables such as cold-hardiness and wheat yield.

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葡萄物候 深度学习 多任务学习 精准预测 混合模型
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