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Data-Driven Discovery of Mobility Periodicity for Understanding Urban Transportation Systems
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本文通过将人类流动数据中的周期性量化问题转化为时间序列自回归中的主正自相关稀疏识别,揭示城市动态。以杭州地铁客流量、纽约和芝加哥的共享出行数据为例,分析COVID-19对人类流动规律的影响及恢复趋势。

arXiv:2508.03747v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Uncovering the temporal regularity of human mobility is crucial for discovering urban dynamics and has implications for various decision-making processes and urban system applications. This study formulates the periodicity quantification problem in complex and multidimensional human mobility data as a sparse identification of dominant positive auto-correlations in time series autoregression, allowing one to discover and quantify significant periodic patterns such as weekly periodicity from a data-driven and interpretable machine learning perspective. We apply our framework to real-world human mobility data, including metro passenger flow in Hangzhou, China and ridesharing trips in New York City (NYC) and Chicago, USA, revealing the interpretable weekly periodicity across different spatial locations over past several years. In particular, our analysis of ridesharing data from 2019 to 2024 demonstrates the disruptive impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mobility regularity and the subsequent recovery trends, highlighting differences in the recovery pattern percentages and speeds between NYC and Chicago. We explore that both NYC and Chicago experienced a remarkable reduction of weekly periodicity in 2020, and the recovery of mobility regularity in NYC is faster than Chicago. The interpretability of sparse autoregression provides insights into the underlying temporal patterns of human mobility, offering a valuable tool for understanding urban systems. Our findings highlight the potential of interpretable machine learning to unlock crucial insights from real-world mobility data.

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人类流动 城市动态 周期性分析 COVID-19影响 机器学习
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