cs.AI updates on arXiv.org 3小时前
Forecasting NCAA Basketball Outcomes with Deep Learning: A Comparative Study of LSTM and Transformer Models
index_new5.html
../../../zaker_core/zaker_tpl_static/wap/tpl_guoji1.html

 

本研究通过深度学习方法,运用LSTM和Transformer模型对2025年NCAA篮球赛事结果进行预测,对比分析不同模型及损失函数的性能,为体育赛事分析提供可复制的预测框架。

arXiv:2508.02725v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: In this research, I explore advanced deep learning methodologies to forecast the outcomes of the 2025 NCAA Division 1 Men's and Women's Basketball tournaments. Leveraging historical NCAA game data, I implement two sophisticated sequence-based models: Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Transformer architectures. The predictive power of these models is augmented through comprehensive feature engineering, including team quality metrics derived from Generalized Linear Models (GLM), Elo ratings, seed differences, and aggregated box-score statistics. To evaluate the robustness and reliability of predictions, I train each model variant using both Binary Cross-Entropy (BCE) and Brier loss functions, providing insights into classification performance and probability calibration. My comparative analysis reveals that while the Transformer architecture optimized with BCE yields superior discriminative power (highest AUC of 0.8473), the LSTM model trained with Brier loss demonstrates superior probabilistic calibration (lowest Brier score of 0.1589). These findings underscore the importance of selecting appropriate model architectures and loss functions based on the specific requirements of forecasting tasks. The detailed analytical pipeline presented here serves as a reproducible framework for future predictive modeling tasks in sports analytics and beyond.

Fish AI Reader

Fish AI Reader

AI辅助创作,多种专业模板,深度分析,高质量内容生成。从观点提取到深度思考,FishAI为您提供全方位的创作支持。新版本引入自定义参数,让您的创作更加个性化和精准。

FishAI

FishAI

鱼阅,AI 时代的下一个智能信息助手,助你摆脱信息焦虑

联系邮箱 441953276@qq.com

相关标签

深度学习 篮球赛事预测 LSTM Transformer
相关文章