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The Science Fiction Science Method
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本文提出一种名为‘科学小说科学’的方法,通过实验模拟未来技术,收集参与者态度和行为数据,旨在预测未来技术的社会和行为影响,以期引导其发展和监管。文章探讨了此方法未被广泛接受的原因,并建议通过限制研究范围和采用沉浸式方法来应对其面临的验证威胁。

arXiv:2508.03430v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Predicting the social and behavioral impact of future technologies, before they are achieved, would allow us to guide their development and regulation before these impacts get entrenched. Traditionally, this prediction has relied on qualitative, narrative methods. Here we describe a method which uses experimental methods to simulate future technologies, and collect quantitative measures of the attitudes and behaviors of participants assigned to controlled variations of the future. We call this method 'science fiction science'. We suggest that the reason why this method has not been fully embraced yet, despite its potential benefits, is that experimental scientists may be reluctant to engage in work facing such serious validity threats as science fiction science. To address these threats, we consider possible constraints on the kind of technology that science fiction science may study, as well as the unconventional, immersive methods that science fiction science may require. We seek to provide perspective on the reasons why this method has been marginalized for so long, what benefits it would bring if it could be built on strong yet unusual methods, and how we can normalize these methods to help the diverse community of science fiction scientists to engage in a virtuous cycle of validity improvement.

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科学小说科学 未来技术预测 实验方法 社会影响
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