Fortune | FORTUNE 4小时前
Dow futures drop as recession alarm bells jolt Wall Street awake from dreams of a gravity-defying economy
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近期公布的就业数据远逊于预期,引发华尔街对经济前景的担忧。过去三个月的就业增长平均仅为3.5万,远低于此前的市场乐观预期。结合消费支出、住房和制造业的下滑迹象,经济正面临衰退的边缘。尽管此前有观点认为关税等因素的影响被其他经济领域(如AI支出和较低的通胀压力)所抵消,但最新的数据表明经济基本面可能比预期的更为脆弱。市场正密切关注即将公布的贸易数据和公司财报,以评估经济的真实状况。

📉 **就业增长大幅放缓,经济前景堪忧:** 最新公布的就业数据显示,过去三个月的就业增长平均仅为3.5万,远低于市场预期,这表明美国经济的复苏势头可能比之前认为的要弱。经济学家警告称,经济正处于衰退的边缘,这与之前的乐观情绪形成鲜明对比。

📊 **多项经济指标显示疲软:** 除了就业市场,消费支出、住房和制造业等关键经济领域也出现了恶化迹象。这些综合性的负面信号进一步加剧了对经济整体健康状况的担忧,暗示经济下行的风险正在累积。

⚖️ **关税影响与经济韧性辩论:** 尽管此前有观点认为,人工智能支出和较低的通胀压力等因素在一定程度上抵消了贸易关税的负面影响,但疲软的就业数据引发了对经济韧性的重新审视。即将生效的新一轮关税可能会受到更严格的审视。

📈 **未来一周经济看点:** 未来一周,市场将关注贸易逆差数据和第二季度生产率报告,以评估关税对进口的影响以及经济的潜在增长动力。同时,多家知名公司如Palantir、AMD、Caterpillar、Disney和McDonald’s将发布季度财报,可能为市场提供更多关于经济状况的线索。

Markets were pointing toward another selloff Sunday evening after startling jobs data delivered a rude awakening to Wall Street bulls.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 47 points, or 0.11%. S&P 500 futures were down 0.17%, and Nasdaq futures slipped 0.23%.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury was flat at 4.216% after plunging Friday on greater expectations for Fed rate cuts. The U.S. dollar was steady against the euro and down 0.09% against the yen.

Gold rose 0.44% to $3,414.10 per ounce. U.S. oil prices dropped 0.67% to $66.88 per barrel, and Brent crude fell 0.72% to $69.17, as OPEC+ announced another surge in production.

After investors marveled at how resilient the economy appeared in the face of President Donald Trump’s tariffs, it turns out conditions were actually much weaker, with job gains over the last three months averaging just 35,000.

Combined with separate indicators showing deterioration in consumer spending, housing, and manufacturing, the overall picture is one of an economy “on the precipice of recession,” according to Mark Zandi from Moody’s Analytics. That followed a similar warning from economists at JPMorgan.

Others had previously sounded the alarm on glaring red flags. But in the days leading up to the jobs report, some top commentators were still trying to explain why doomsday predictions about Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs had yet to materialize.

On Thursday, former White House economic adviser Jason Furman attributed it in part to “tariff derangement syndrome.” And last Sunday, Rockefeller International Chair Ruchir Sharma said the negative effects of tariffs were likely being offset by other factors like the AI spending splurge and lower inflationary pressure from housing, cars and energy.

With Wall Street now more attuned to economic risks like Trump’s trade war, the tariffs that will go into effect on Thursday may get more scrutiny. That includes steeper duties on trading partners like Canada and Switzerland.

Meanwhile, the calendar of economic reports thins out in the coming week after several big ones last week. On Tuesday, the trade deficit for June comes out, providing an update on how much tariffs are impacting imports. On Thursday, second-quarter productivity is due.

Earnings season has passed its peak, but several top names will issue quarterly reports. Palantir Technologies reports Monday after securing a $10 billion software and data contract from the Army.

Chip giant Advanced Micro Devices will report on Tuesday—potentially offering hints at Nvidia’s results, which don’t come out until Aug. 27.

Other companies scheduled to release earnings in the coming week include Caterpillar, Disney, and McDonald’s. It will also be a busy time for pharmaceutical and biotech giants like Amgen, Pfizer, and Eli Lilly as Trump weighs steep tariffs on drugs.

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美国经济 就业数据 衰退风险 贸易关税 市场分析
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