Fortune | FORTUNE 前天 15:21
A vacancy on the Fed is opening early as Trump urges board to ‘assume control’ if Powell doesn’t cut rates
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美联储理事 Adriana Kugler 宣布将提前离职,这使得美国总统特朗普有机会扩大其对美联储的影响力。特朗普近期持续呼吁降低利率,并对美联储主席鲍威尔施压。Kugler 的提前离职将于8月8日生效,比其任期结束的明年1月早。此举为特朗普提名一位拥有投票权的美联储理事打开了通道,可能影响联邦基金利率的决策。尽管近期有两位特朗普任命的理事对维持利率不变的决定表示异议,但分析认为,要推翻鲍威尔的决策仍有难度,除非经济数据出现大幅转变或新成员改变投票平衡。鲍威尔本人则表示将继续履行其美联储主席的任期。

⭐ 美联储理事 Adriana Kugler 宣布将于8月8日提前离职,这比其原定任期结束的明年1月要早,她计划秋季返回乔治城大学任教。这一变动为美国总统特朗普提供了一个提名新理事的机会,可能扩大他对美联储货币政策决策的影响力。

🇺🇸 特朗普近期持续对美联储主席鲍威尔施压,呼吁大幅降低利率,并暗示如果鲍威尔继续拒绝,应由理事会接管决策。Kugler 的离职使得特朗普有机会提名一位具有投票权的理事加入联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC),该委员会负责设定联邦基金利率。

⚖️ 尽管FOMC的利率决策由12名投票成员以简单多数决定,鲍威尔仅有一票且无否决权,但分析师认为,要推翻鲍威尔的决策并非易事。除非经济数据出现显著下滑或新成员的加入能够改变投票格局,否则一次成功的“反叛”需要至少七票反对鲍威尔的立场。

📈 近期公布的经济数据显示出一些疲软迹象,例如上个月新增就业人数仅为7.3万,且前两个月的就业增长数据被大幅下修。这些数据可能影响美联储对利率政策的判断,并为鲍威尔在即将举行的FOMC会议上采取更温和的立场提供依据。

⏳ 鲍威尔已明确表示将完成其美联储主席任期,直至2025年5月。此外,其在理事会的任期将持续到2028年,这意味着即使卸任主席,他仍可能留在理事会,从而对特朗普试图获得多数席位构成潜在阻碍。

Fed Governor Adriana Kugler announced Friday she is stepping down from her position earlier than expected, giving President Donald Trump the chance to expand his influence over the central bank as he calls for a revolt against Chairman Jerome Powell.

In a post on Truth Social before Kugler’s announcement, President Trump took a jab at Powell, saying he must “substantially” lower interest rates, after the Federal Open Market Committee voted overwhelmingly to keep rates unchanged.

“IF HE CONTINUES TO REFUSE, THE BOARD SHOULD ASSUME CONTROL, AND DO WHAT EVERYONE KNOWS HAS TO BE DONE,” Trump added in the post. 

Kugler said she would resign her position on Aug. 8, earlier than her expected departure in January when her term on the board of governors expires. She plans to return to Georgetown University as a professor this fall, according to a press release.

Kugler’s departure gives Trump a relished opportunity to nominate a voting member to the FOMC and expand his influence. The FOMC sets the federal funds rate that Trump has been saying needs to come down. The committee is made up of the seven governors who serve on the Fed board, the New York Fed president, and four rotating regional Federal Reserve bank presidents.

The FOMC meeting this week that kept rates unchanged between 4.25% and 4.5% saw the dissent of two Fed governors, Trump appointees Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller. 

It marked a rare break in what’s a typically unanimous vote, but it was far from a mutiny, said Michael Ashley Schulman, the chief investment officer of Running Point Capital Advisors. 

Because interest rate decisions are decided by a simple majority vote by the FOMC’s 12 voting members, it’s possible Powell, who only gets one vote and no veto power, could be overridden. But it’s not likely, said Schulman. 

“A handful of dissents shows the committee can grumble, but a successful revolt would need at least seven ‘nays’ against Powell, an inside-the-Fed version of turning the Succession board on Logan Roy,” he told Fortune, referring to the TV show about a corporate power struggle. “Odds remain low unless the data roll over hard or new appointees tip the balance.”

Trump’s attacks on the Fed and Powell have escalated in his second term. And his constant insistence on lower rates and previous threats to appoint Powell’s successor, have put pressure on the Fed to exert its independence.

Yet, Powell still has ways he can fight back against Trump’s influence, if he chooses to, said Mark Spindel, senior adviser at F/m Investments and a co-author of The Myth of Independence: How Congress Governs the Federal Reserve

Powell has made clear he will serve out the remainder of his term as Fed chairman until it expires in May, yet Spindel notes Powell can also remain on the board of governors afterwards because his term on the board, which ends in 2028, is independent of his four-year term as chairman.

“Powell sticking around for a while after his chairmanship would be a scenario by which he could keep the president from attaining a majority of the board of governors, preventing all sorts of weird dynamics, and making communication by the incoming chair more difficult,” Spindel told Fortune.

Powell has repeatedly declined to say whether he intends to stay on as Fed governor after his term as chairman ends.

It’s also unclear how Trump will react if the Fed cuts rates. The economy has been largely resilient in spite of uncertainty caused in part by the threat of tariffs on major U.S. trading partners, but cracks have started to emerge. The U.S. economy added only about 73,000 jobs last month, and gains in June and May were revised down sharply, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. 

The new numbers were so stunning they upended the earlier narrative that the labor market was remarkably shock proof, which has colored the Fed’s stance on rates. 

In the press conference following the Fed’s decision to keep rates unchanged, Powell hesitated to guide toward a rate in the coming months. He struck a hawkish tone, according to a note by Bank of America’s macroeconomics team, putting a damper on investor hopes that the FOMC’s next meeting in September could bring a rate cut.

“It seems to me — and to almost the whole committee — that the economy is not performing as though restrictive policy is holding it back inappropriately,” Powell said.

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美联储 特朗普 利率政策 货币政策 鲍威尔
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