Fortune | FORTUNE 14小时前
Forced frenemies, Exxon and Chevron take diverging paths as leaders of the booming Permian
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埃克森美孚与雪佛龙,两大石油巨头在页岩油生产策略上呈现出明显差异。埃克森美孚计划在未来五年内大幅提升产量,并确信其在二叠纪盆地的增长将持续到2030年之后,其策略是追求规模和效率以实现价值驱动的增长。而雪佛龙则采取更为稳健的“平台期”策略,优先考虑自由现金流,并计划在未来保持产量相对稳定。尽管双方在产量增长目标上有所不同,但都在努力适应当前较低的油价环境,并关注战略性收购以提升长期价值。

🛢️ **埃克森美孚的激进增长策略**:埃克森美孚计划在未来五年内将其二叠纪盆地的产量提高50%,并预计增长将持续到2030年以后。公司认为其在规模和技术上的优势,以及通过收购先锋自然资源获得的领导地位,使其能够实现成本效益和价值驱动的增长,反驳了“二叠纪油价见顶”的观点。

💰 **雪佛龙的稳健现金流策略**:雪佛龙采取“平台期”策略,将重心放在自由现金流上,目标是保持二叠纪盆地的产量相对稳定。首席执行官迈克·沃思表示,随着公司拥有庞大的页岩油资产组合,增长的重要性正在下降,而现金流的产生变得更为关键。

🤝 **圭亚那油田的合作与争议**:埃克森美孚与雪佛龙因收购赫斯公司在圭亚那油田的30%股权而成为合作伙伴。尽管埃克森美孚认为其拥有优先购买权,但仲裁裁决支持了雪佛龙的收购,认为其购买的是整个公司而非仅油田股份。埃克森美孚对此裁决表示失望,但尊重其结果。双方预计圭亚那的日均产量将增长至130万桶油当量。

📉 **油价低迷下的盈利压力**:受油价下跌影响,两家公司的季度盈利均出现同比下降。埃克森美孚的净收入同比下降23%,至71亿美元,而雪佛龙的净收入同比下降43%,至25亿美元。这表明在当前的市场环境下,盈利能力面临挑战。

🛒 **战略性收购是关键**:埃克森美孚董事长兼首席执行官达伦·伍兹强调,未来将继续寻求战略性收购,但前提是任何交易都能实现“一加一大于三”的协同效应,即通过收购创造更大的价值,而非仅仅为了增长而增长。

While West Texas production leader Exxon aims to spike its volumes another 50% in the next five years and keep growing beyond 2030, Chevron is taking a “plateau” approach and focusing on free cash flow.

The two companies reported their earnings Aug. 1 just two weeks after they were reluctantly forced into becoming partners when a ruling from a contentious arbitration fight in Chevron’s favor allowed the company to close on its $53 billion acquisition of Hess and its crown jewel 30% stake in Exxon’s oil discovery offshore of Guyana—arguably the biggest oil discovery of the century.

However, for both companies, the Permian is their leading base of oil and gas volumes. In fact, the Permian represents almost half of the nation’s record-high 13.4 million barrels per day of crude oil. Exxon reported growing its volumes to 1.6 million barrels of oil equivalent a day, including natural gas, while Chevron hit its 2025 target of 1 million barrels daily during the second quarter.

Chevron aims to keep its Permian output relatively steady going forward.

“We’re very pleased to have such a large shale portfolio and, at some point, growth is less the objective than free cash flow, and we’re approaching that point,” said Chevron chairman and CEO Mike Wirth in an earnings call.

On the other hand, Exxon aims to hit a whopping 2.3 million barrels daily in the Permian by 2030. Exxon chairman and CEO Darren Woods said he “absolutely” disagrees with the idea of “peak” Permian oil production amid weaker prices and a maturing basin. Exxon also finds itself in an enviable position after its $60 billion acquisition last year of Permian leader Pioneer Natural Resources.

“We’re a long-ball hitter. Everybody in the unconventional [shale] space is playing the short game,” Woods said, citing scale and technology advantages that lead to much greater cost efficiencies, allowing for more value-oriented growth. “That has led us to have growing confidence the projection we have past 2030 is an upward vector and will continue to grow.”

Woods said Exxon is even open to more acquisitions going forward—just not growth for the sake of growth. Any deal must prove “one plus one equals three.”

“That is, in my mind, the magic of successful acquisitions and what we’re looking for,” Woods said.

Exxon and Chevron both delivered quarterly beats, but their earnings are down in a lower oil price environment. Exxon’s quarterly net income of $7.1 billion fell 23% year over year from $9.2 billion. Chevron’s $2.5 billion in net income dipped 43% year over year from $4.4 billion.

Hotly anticipated ruling

In Guyana, the long-awaited ruling from an arbitration panel overseen by the International Chamber of Commerce decided July 18 that Chevron’s acquisition of Hess did not violate Exxon’s right of first refusal for Hess’ Guyana stake because it bought the whole company and not just the Guyana position.

Although most industry observers expected Chevron to prevail, Woods said Aug. 1 that the ruling was a “surprise.”

“We were highly confident in our position,” Woods said. “Having co-written the contract, we understood its intent and believed the contractual language conveyed it. Unfortunately, the tribunal interpreted it differently. While disappointed, we respect the process and the ruling.”

Woods said the shared Guyana production volumes should grow to at least 1.3 million barrels of oil equivalent daily by 2030.

For Chevron, the Hess and Guyana acquisition helps offset “disappointing” global oil and gas exploration results in recent years. The company had leaned in on onshore U.S. volumes, cost reductions, and long-cycle international developments that were in development, Wirth said.

Exploration will grow going forward, he said. “But overall, our MO (modus operandi) or our reputation for capital discipline will remain.”

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埃克森美孚 雪佛龙 页岩油 二叠纪盆地 能源策略
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