Fortune | FORTUNE 22小时前
‘The Big Short’ investor warns despite economy’s stronghold against ‘thoughtless’, ‘unprecedented’ tariffs so far, stagflation is coming
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继新一轮关税措施后,素有“大空头”之称的经济学家Danny Moses警告,尽管经济数据表现不一,滞胀迹象已然显现。他认为,关税的不可预测性以及对企业利润和消费者价格的影响,可能导致经济增长停滞与通货膨胀并存的局面。尽管白宫方面对此表示否认,但Moses指出,关税对物价的推升作用已开始显现,且其长期影响尚不明朗。企业或将面临利润压缩或转嫁成本给消费者,滞胀的可能性因此增加。

📈 经济学家Danny Moses(因《大空头》闻名)警告,美国近期实施的关税措施可能导致经济滞胀。他指出,虽然经济数据存在争议,但滞胀的迹象已经显现,这可能意味着经济增长停滞与高通胀并存。

🇺🇸 新一轮关税包括对瑞士和加拿大的商品征收重税,并延长了对墨西哥的贸易协议宽限期。此次关税政策的出发点与以往不同,部分是出于政治原因,而非仅为消除贸易逆差。

📉 关税宣布后,市场出现下跌,此前一周的强劲财报和贸易战担忧减弱的势头被打破。Moses认为,关税的不可预测性加剧了投资者对经济未来的担忧。

📊 尽管近期GDP数据显示美国经济有所反弹,但Moses认为关税的全面影响尚未显现。他认为,关税可能导致物价上涨,并对企业利润和经济活动产生持续影响,增加了滞胀的风险。

⚖️ Moses预测,企业将面临艰难抉择:要么消化关税成本,导致利润和收益下降,使得市场估值偏高;要么将成本转嫁给消费者,引发通货膨胀。他认为,这两种情况很可能会同时发生,加剧滞胀的可能性。

Following the latest round of tariffs, it’s only a matter of time before the other economic shoe drops, according to one investor who predicted the 2008 stock-market crash.

Danny Moses, the founder of Moses Ventures who was made famous by the book-turned-movie “The Big Short,” warned that despite some strong economic indicators in the face of tariff uncertainty, signs of stagflation are already upon us.

“There’s just so many moving parts right now that it’s really hard to decipher where you’re going to pinpoint,” Moses told Fortune. “Anyone can find a data point that says it’s inflationary, and someone can find a data point that says it’s not. So it’s just difficult. But bottom line… Is the [economy] going through a stagflationary period? It appears to me, it is.”

President Donald Trump announced on Friday a new round of sweeping tariffs, including a 39% tax on Swiss exports and 35% tax on some Canadian exports to the U.S. The administration is extending the trade-deal deadline to other countries including Mexico, America’s largest trade partner, which is getting an extra 90 days. The logic behind the tariffs differs slightly from previous rounds, where Trump has argued the need for levies as a means to eliminate trade deficits. The U.S. for example, has had a trade surplus with Brazil for about a decade. Instead, Trump has imposed steep tariffs on Brazil for political reasons, such as the prosecution of ally and former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, who was accused of plotting a coup following his loss of the presidential election.

Markets dipped after the announcement—as well as a weaker-than-expected jobs report— following a week-long rally of strong earnings and fading trade-war fears. But Moses said the latest round of tariffs have once again stirred anxiety about the economy’s future, making investors “a little bit more concerned about the unpredictability of what’s coming out.”

“Nobody knows how this is going to pan out, because this type of thoughtless tariff is unprecedented,” Moses said.

Where’s the stagflation?

Fears of stagflation, or the stagnation of economic growth coinciding with inflation, have been easing, particularly following the Wednesday GDP data showing a rebound in U.S. economic growth in the second quarter of the year. This followed a negative first-quarter GDP estimate that was largely a result of the timing of trade chaos forcing companies to stockpile on goods before pricing in consumers purchasing that inventory. Ultimately, though, the second-quarter growth undid the first quarter’s contraction, and economic growth ultimately slowed the first half of the year.

White House spokesperson Kush Desai told Fortune in a statement that recovering growth and “cooling inflation” “suggest stagflation is simply the latest buzzword for panican [sic] paranoia.”

Moses said the economy has not yet seen the full impact of the tariffs. Fed Chair Jerome Powell held interest rates steady this week and said more information is needed to deliver a rate cut.

“Higher tariffs have begun to show through more clearly to prices of some goods, but their overall effects on economic activity and inflation remain to be seen,” Powell told reporters following the Fed meeting on Wednesday. “A reasonable base case is that the effects on inflation could be short-lived—reflecting a one-time shift in the price level. But it is also possible that the inflationary effects could instead be more persistent, and that is a risk to be assessed and managed.”

Not only will inflation likely increase as it has already begun to do, albeit modestly, Moses said, but companies will continue to confront the impact of tariffs. Apple was the latest giant to feel the burn from tariffs, reporting on Friday strong earnings, but a $1.1 billion hit from the levies. As companies continue to reckon with the impact of tariffs, they will likely choose to both eat margins and compromise growth, as well as raise prices on goods, according to Moses, with stagflation being the most probable outcome.

“Pick your poison,” Moses said. “It’s either going to hit corporate margins and earnings will go down, which means the market’s expensive, or it’ll be passed on to the consumers and be inflationary. I think it’s going to be a combination of both.”

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关税 滞胀 经济 美国经济 Danny Moses
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