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Causal Reasoning in Pieces: Modular In-Context Learning for Causal Discovery
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文章探讨了因果推理在大型语言模型中的挑战,并介绍了OpenAI的推理模型在因果发现中的显著优势。通过引入模块化情境管道,实现了对传统基线方法的近三倍性能提升。

arXiv:2507.23488v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Causal inference remains a fundamental challenge for large language models. Recent advances in internal reasoning with large language models have sparked interest in whether state-of-the-art reasoning models can robustly perform causal discovery-a task where conventional models often suffer from severe overfitting and near-random performance under data perturbations. We study causal discovery on the Corr2Cause benchmark using the emergent OpenAI's o-series and DeepSeek-R model families and find that these reasoning-first architectures achieve significantly greater native gains than prior approaches. To capitalize on these strengths, we introduce a modular in-context pipeline inspired by the Tree-of-Thoughts and Chain-of-Thoughts methodologies, yielding nearly three-fold improvements over conventional baselines. We further probe the pipeline's impact by analyzing reasoning chain length, complexity, and conducting qualitative and quantitative comparisons between conventional and reasoning models. Our findings suggest that while advanced reasoning models represent a substantial leap forward, carefully structured in-context frameworks are essential to maximize their capabilities and offer a generalizable blueprint for causal discovery across diverse domains.

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因果推理 语言模型 因果发现 OpenAI 模型性能
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