Fortune | FORTUNE 前天 01:38
Microsoft researchers have revealed the 40 jobs most exposed to AI—and even teachers make the list
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一份来自微软研究人员的报告深入探讨了生成式人工智能对各行各业的潜在影响。报告指出,翻译、历史和写作等知识型工作,以及销售和客服岗位,与AI的能力高度匹配,因此受到的影响最大。尽管高适用性不代表工作必然被取代,但许多专业人士已感受到AI带来的竞争压力。例如,IBM已开始冻结部分将被AI取代的岗位,英国毕业生也面临着自2018年以来最严峻的就业市场。报告同时强调,拥有学士学位已不再是抵御AI冲击的保障,许多需要高等教育的职业同样面临AI带来的变革。相反,医疗保健等领域,尤其是家庭健康和个人护理助理,预计将创造大量新就业机会。研究人员也提醒,除了生成式AI,其他AI应用也可能影响到操作和监控机械的岗位,如卡车司机。微软研究员Kiran Tomlinson表示,研究旨在揭示AI如何改变工作方式,而非完全取代工作,并强调持续研究AI的社会经济影响的重要性。此外,教育行业的部分岗位,如家政管理和部分教师职位,也显示出较高的AI适用性。

📝 **AI适用性高的职业面临变革**:微软的研究报告显示,翻译、历史学家、作家、客服和销售代表等知识型工作,以及涉及电脑、数学和行政工作的岗位,与当前AI的能力高度契合,因此具有最高的AI适用性。这意味着这些领域的工作内容最有可能被AI辅助或改变。

🎓 **学历不再是AI冲击的“护身符”**:报告指出,许多高风险职业,如政治科学家、记者和管理分析师,通常需要学士学位。这表明,即使拥有高等教育背景,也无法完全抵御AI对就业市场的冲击,曾经被视为职业保障的学历,在AI时代的作用正在减弱。

🚫 **低AI影响与新兴需求并存**:与受AI影响较大的职业形成对比的是,一些职业受AI影响极小,并且需求反而不断增长。例如,疏浚操作员、桥梁和船闸看守员、水处理厂和系统操作员等需要大量实际操作和设备维护的岗位,受生成式AI的影响几乎为零。同时,医疗保健行业,特别是家庭健康和个人护理助理,预计将在未来十年创造最多的新就业机会。

🤝 **拥抱AI而非抗拒**:英伟达CEO黄仁勋强调,AI将影响到“每一个工作”,并且“立即”就会发生。他认为,与其担心被AI取代,不如认识到“你不会被AI打败,但你会被使用AI的人打败”。因此,积极拥抱和学习如何使用AI,是适应未来职业发展的关键。

📚 **教育行业面临AI挑战**:报告特别提到,教育行业的部分岗位,如家政管理教师以及部分高等教育的经济、商业和图书馆科学教师,也显示出较高的AI适用性。这预示着即使是教育领域,也可能需要适应AI带来的变化,尽管AI教师大规模取代人类教师的可能性较低。

A new report from Microsoft researchers studying the occupational implications of generative AI offers some clarity.

Translators, historians, and writers are among the roles with the highest AI applicability score, meaning the job’s tasks are most closely aligned with AI’s current abilities, according to the report released this month that ranked professions. Customer service and sales representatives—which make up about 5 million jobs in the U.S.—will also have to compete with AI. 

Overall, the jobs most exposed are ones that involve knowledge work—like people doing computer, math, or administrative work in an office, the researchers wrote. Sales jobs are also high on the list, since they often involve sharing and explaining information.

While Microsoft said high applicability doesn’t automatically mean those jobs will necessarily be replaced by AI, the list of roles quickly went viral—with professionals deeming them “most at risk.” It comes as companies like IBM have been freezing thousands of would-be new roles that it expects AI will take over in the next 5 years, and graduates in the U.K. are facing the worst job market since 2018 as employers pause hiring and use AI to cut costs, says Indeed.

Of course, there are some jobs that are unlikely to be touched by AI: Dredge operators; bridge and lock tenders; and water treatment plant and system operators are among the jobs with virtually no generative AI exposure, thanks in part to their hands-on equipment requirements.

Still, business leaders like Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang have said that every job will be touched by AI in some way, and so it’s best to embrace it. 

“Every job will be affected, and immediately. It is unquestionable,” Huang said at the Milken Institute’s Global Conference in May. “You’re not going to lose your job to an AI, but you’re going to lose your job to someone who uses AI.”

A degree won’t save you from AI’s jobs revolution

Many of the jobs with high chances of getting upended by AI soon, like political scientists, journalists, and management analysts, are all ones that typically require a four-year degree to land a job. And as the researchers point out, having a degree—which was once considered a surefire path to career advancement—is no longer a safeguard against the changing tides. 

“In terms of education requirements, we find higher AI applicability for occupations requiring a Bachelor’s degree than occupations with lower requirements,” wrote the researchers, who studied 200,000 real-world conversations of Copilot users and cross-compared the AI’s performance with occupational data.

On the flip side, there are some career paths with low AI exposure, that are growing in demand. The healthcare sector, in particular, is an area that is experiencing this heavily. The home health and personal care aid industry is expected to create the greatest number of new jobs over the next decade, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor.

At the same time, the researchers recognized that even their findings don’t capture the full scope of the AI revolution—and there could be further automation caused by more than just generative technology: “Our measurement is purely about LLMs: other applications of AI could certainly affect occupations involving operating and monitoring machinery, such as truck driving.”

Kiran Tomlinson, a senior Microsoft researcher, tells Fortune the study focused on highlighting where AI might change how work is done, not take away or replace jobs.

“Our research shows that AI supports many tasks, particularly those involving research, writing, and communication, but does not indicate it can fully perform any single occupation. As AI adoption accelerates, it’s important that we continue to study and better understand its societal and economic impact,” Tomlinson says.

Gen Z’s big bet on education might not be all glam

After seeing the rollercoaster of layoffs across the tech industry over the past few years, many Gen Zers have turned to seemingly steadier fields like education.

The sector was the fastest-growing industry among recent U.K. graduates last year, and it was similarly a top career choice for American graduates. And while the profession can provide further work-life balance and decent benefits, the ability for AI to do the work may cause further headache. The report singles out farm and home management educators—as well as postsecondary economics, business, and library science teachers—as roles with relatively high AI applicability.

While it’s unlikely that schools will roll out AI teachers en masse, the report’s findings underscore how quickly the technology could reshape the education profession—and many others.

The top 10 least affected occupations by generative AI:

    Dredge OperatorsBridge and Lock TendersWater Treatment Plant and System OperatorsFoundry Mold and CoremakersRail-Track Laying and Maintenance Equipment OperatorsPile Driver OperatorsFloor Sanders and FinishersOrderliesMotorboat OperatorsLogging Equipment Operators

The top 40 most affected occupations by generative AI:

    Interpreters and TranslatorsHistoriansPassenger AttendantsSales Representatives of ServicesWriters and AuthorsCustomer Service RepresentativesCNC Tool ProgrammersTelephone OperatorsTicket Agents and Travel ClerksBroadcast Announcers and Radio DJsBrokerage ClerksFarm and Home Management EducatorsTelemarketersConciergesPolitical ScientistsNews Analysts, Reporters, JournalistsMathematiciansTechnical WritersProofreaders and Copy MarkersHosts and HostessesEditorsBusiness Teachers, PostsecondaryPublic Relations SpecialistsDemonstrators and Product PromotersAdvertising Sales AgentsNew Accounts ClerksStatistical AssistantsCounter and Rental ClerksData ScientistsPersonal Financial AdvisorsArchivistsEconomics Teachers, PostsecondaryWeb DevelopersManagement AnalystsGeographersModelsMarket Research AnalystsPublic Safety TelecommunicatorsSwitchboard OperatorsLibrary Science Teachers, Postsecondary
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生成式AI 职业影响 AI与就业 未来工作 人工智能
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