Fortune | FORTUNE 前天 23:35
Microsoft researchers have revealed the list of the 40 jobs that AI is likely to steal—and not even teachers are safe
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一份来自微软研究人员的报告揭示了生成式AI对不同职业的潜在影响。报告指出,翻译、历史和写作等职业具有最高的AI适用性得分,意味着其工作内容与AI当前能力高度契合。此外,客服和销售代表等职位也面临被AI取代的风险。研究发现,知识性工作,包括计算机、数学和行政类工作,以及销售类工作,都可能受到AI的显著影响。相反,像疏浚操作员、桥梁和船闸看守员、水处理厂及系统操作员等需要实际动手操作的职业,受AI影响的程度则非常低。报告还强调,拥有学士学位不再是抵御AI变革的绝对保障,许多需要学位的职业,如政治学家、记者和管理分析师,也显示出较高的AI适用性。与此同时,医疗保健领域,特别是家庭健康和个人护理援助行业,预计将创造大量新就业机会,成为AI影响下的相对安全区。

**AI适用性高的职业:** 报告指出,翻译、历史学家、作家、客服代表和销售代表等职业,因其工作内容与生成式AI的能力高度相关,具有最高的AI适用性得分,面临被AI取代的风险较高。这些职业通常涉及知识处理、信息分享和解释。

**AI不易影响的职业:** 疏浚操作员、桥梁和船闸看守员、水处理厂及系统操作员等需要大量实际操作和设备维护的职业,由于其工作性质,受生成式AI的影响非常小,相对安全。

**教育背景与AI风险:** 研究发现,拥有学士学位并不能完全免疫AI对就业市场的影响。政治学家、记者、管理分析师等传统上需要四年制学位的职业,在AI适用性方面也表现出较高的得分,意味着教育背景不再是职业发展的绝对护盾。

**新兴安全领域:** 医疗保健行业,特别是家庭健康和个人护理援助领域,被预测为未来十年创造最多新就业机会的行业,显示出在AI时代相对较低的AI影响和增长的需求。

**AI对教育行业的潜在冲击:** 即使是教育行业,如农场和家庭管理教育者、大学经济学、商业和图书馆科学教师等,也可能因AI的能力而面临挑战,尽管AI教师大规模取代人类教师的可能性不大,但AI技术无疑将重塑教育行业。

A new report from Microsoft researchers studying the occupational implications of generative AI, offers some clarity.

Translators, historians, and writers are among the roles with the highest AI applicability score, meaning the job’s tasks are most closely aligned with AI’s current abilities, according to the report released this month that ranked professions. 

Customer service and sales representatives—which make up about 5 million jobs in the U.S.—are also highly vulnerable to being replaced by AI. 

Overall, the jobs on AI’s chopping block are ones that are ones that involve knowledge work—like people doing computer, math, or administrative work in an office, the researchers wrote. Sales jobs are also on the list, since they often involve sharing and explaining information.

Of course, there are some jobs that are safe from AI’s claw: Dredge operators; bridge and lock tenders; and water treatment plant and system operators are among the jobs with virtually no generative AI exposure, thanks in part to their hands-on equipment requirements.

Still, business leaders like Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang have said that every job will be touched by AI in some way, and so it’s best to embrace it. 

“Every job will be affected, and immediately. It is unquestionable,” Huang said at the Milken Institute’s Global Conference in May. “You’re not going to lose your job to an AI, but you’re going to lose your job to someone who uses AI.”

A degree won’t save you from AI’s jobs revolution

Many of the jobs with high chances of getting upended by AI soon, like political scientists, journalists, and management analysts, are all ones that typically require a four-year degree to land a job. And as the researchers point out, having a degree—which was once considered a surefire path to career advancement—is no longer a safeguard against the changing tides. 

“In terms of education requirements, we find higher AI applicability for occupations requiring a Bachelor’s degree than occupations with lower requirements,” wrote the researchers, who studied 200,000 real-world conversations of Copilot users and cross-compared the AI’s performance with occupational data.

On the flip side, there are some career paths with low AI exposure, that are growing in demand. The healthcare sector, in particular, is an area that is experiencing this heavily. The home health and personal care aid industry is expected to create the greatest number of new jobs over the next decade, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor.

At the same time, the researchers recognized that even their findings don’t capture the full scope of the AI revolution—and there could be further automation caused by more than just generative technology: “Our measurement is purely about LLMs: other applications of AI could certainly affect occupations involving operating and monitoring machinery, such as truck driving.”

Fortune reached out to Microsoft for comment.

Gen Z’s big bet on education might not be all glam

After seeing the rollercoaster of layoffs across the tech industry over the past few years, many Gen Zers have turned to seemingly steadier fields like education.

The sector was the fastest-growing industry among recent U.K. graduates last year, and it was similarly a top career choice for American graduates. And while the profession can provide further work-life balance and decent benefits, the ability for AI to do the work may cause further headache. The report singles out farm and home management educators—as well as postsecondary economics, business, and library science teachers—as roles with relatively high AI applicability.

While it’s unlikely that schools will roll out AI teachers en masse, the report’s findings underscore how quickly the technology could reshape the education profession—and many others.

The top 10 least affected occupations by generative AI:

    Dredge OperatorsBridge and Lock TendersWater Treatment Plant and System OperatorsFoundry Mold and CoremakersRail-Track Laying and Maintenance Equipment OperatorsPile Driver OperatorsFloor Sanders and FinishersOrderliesMotorboat OperatorsLogging Equipment Operators

The top 40 most affected occupations by generative AI:

    Interpreters and TranslatorsHistoriansPassenger AttendantsSales Representatives of ServicesWriters and AuthorsCustomer Service RepresentativesCNC Tool ProgrammersTelephone OperatorsTicket Agents and Travel ClerksBroadcast Announcers and Radio DJsBrokerage ClerksFarm and Home Management EducatorsTelemarketersConciergesPolitical ScientistsNews Analysts, Reporters, JournalistsMathematiciansTechnical WritersProofreaders and Copy MarkersHosts and HostessesEditorsBusiness Teachers, PostsecondaryPublic Relations SpecialistsDemonstrators and Product PromotersAdvertising Sales AgentsNew Accounts ClerksStatistical AssistantsCounter and Rental ClerksData ScientistsPersonal Financial AdvisorsArchivistsEconomics Teachers, PostsecondaryWeb DevelopersManagement AnalystsGeographersModelsMarket Research AnalystsPublic Safety TelecommunicatorsSwitchboard OperatorsLibrary Science Teachers, Postsecondary
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