Fortune | FORTUNE 前天 22:09
From coffee to orange juice, here are the products that will be hit hardest by Trump’s tariffs
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特朗普政府的关税政策自上任以来频繁变动,对全球贸易格局产生显著影响。从最初对中国商品的关税跳跃式增长,到后来的90天延期以促进贸易谈判,再到即将对包括德国、西班牙、印度、巴西、印度尼西亚和加拿大在内的多个国家和地区征收不同比例的关税,这些措施引发了广泛关注。从墨西哥番茄、越南纺织品、德国汽车、西班牙橄榄油,到印度大米、巴西牛肉和橙汁,以及印尼鞋类和加拿大铜材,全球多个行业的供应链和出口商都面临着不确定性和潜在的经济损失。这些政策的反复调整,使得企业难以规划和应对,对全球经济的稳定构成挑战。

🛃 特朗普政府关税政策的频繁波动:文章指出,自特朗普上任以来,其关税政策,特别是对中国商品的关税,经历了多次大幅度的调整,从10%到145%再回落至30%,显示出政策的不确定性。

📈 90天关税延期与国际贸易谈判:为了鼓励其他国家与美国达成贸易协定或互惠关税协议,特朗普政府曾宣布为期90天的关税暂停,该暂停期将于8月1日到期,为国际贸易关系增添了更多变数。

🌍 多国受影响及具体行业分析:文章详细列举了多个国家(如中国、墨西哥、越南、德国、西班牙、印度、巴西、印度尼西亚、葡萄牙、加拿大)及其主要出口产品(如番茄、纺织品、汽车、橄榄油、大米、牛肉、橙汁、鞋类、软木、铜材)将面临的关税变化,并分析了这些变化对当地产业的潜在影响,例如巴西牛肉和橙汁行业可能面临的巨额损失。

📉 经济不确定性与企业应对:频繁变动的关税政策给全球企业带来了巨大的不确定性,迫使它们为潜在的冲击做好准备。例如,巴西的橙汁生产商考虑让水果烂在树上以避免因价格下跌而产生的收获成本。

⚖️ 政治因素与贸易制裁:文章提及,对巴西的50%关税部分原因在于巴西政府在某些政治立场上与特朗普盟友的对立,以及印度因购买俄罗斯石油而面临的额外税收,暗示了关税政策中可能掺杂的政治考量。

By the time you read this article, there’s a chance that President Donald Trump will have changed his policy on tariffs yet again. Since his first day in office this term, Trump has been making plans to tax imported goods from other countries into the U.S., but with each passing day, his plans continue to change.

For example, the tariffs Trump has imposed on imports from China have jumped from 10% to 34%, then up to 104%, 125% and finally 145%, before dropping back down to 30%, all over the course of five months.

After announcing his plan for tariffs back in April—on a day he called “Liberation Day”—Trump put a 90-day delay on the upcoming tariffs in order to encourage other countries to make trade deals, or reciprocal tariff deals, with the U.S. The tariff pause is set to expire Aug. 1.

As Trump goes back and forth about tariffs, businesses across the world brace themselves for impact.

A vendor waits next to tomato crates in a warehouse at Central de Abasto vegetable market on July 15 in Mexico City. On July 14, the U.S. government placed a 17% tariff on fresh Mexican tomatoes, according to The Associated Press. The U.S. imports about 70% of its tomatoes—or 4 billion pounds per year—from Mexico, according to the Florida Tomato Exchange. With the tariff in place, more of the U.S.’s tomato supply will come from within the country itself, mainly California and Florida, though most of that production is for processed tomatoes.

Cristopher Rogel Blanquet—Getty Images

Workers at a garment factory work on products in Thủ Đức, Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam, on June 21. In 2024, Vietnam’s textile and garment exports to the U.S. reached $16.6 billion, making it the biggest export market for Vietnam, with the value of total projected exports reaching $44 billion. In early July, Trump announced Vietnam would face a 20% tariff on goods exported to the U.S., a percentage lower than the original 46% tariff that was paused in April, but higher than expected, according to Politico.

Daniel Ceng—Anadolu/Getty Images

Workers assemble fully electric and hybrid versions of the new Mercedes-Benz CLA sedan at the Mercedes-Benz assembly plant on June 4 in Rastatt, Germany. In addition to Mercedes-Benz, Germany also is home to other car manufacturers including Audi, BMW, Volkswagon, and Porsche, all of which will face a 15% tariff on exports to the U.S. The tariff, which covers most goods from the EU, is significantly lower than the current 27.5% tariff on cars exported from Europe as well as the 30% tariff Trump originally planned to enact on Aug. 1.

Florian Wiegand—Getty Images

An employee works in a lab to analyze olive oil samples on April 15 in Antequera, Spain. Spain produces about 40% of the world’s olive oil and exports roughly 180,000 metric tons to the U.S. annually, making it a key market for Spanish producers. In 2024, the U.S. imported $82.9 million of olive oil, $50.9 million of which came from Spain, according to the Observatory of Economic Complexity. Olive oil imports into the U.S. from Spain will face the same 15% tariff that most goods from the EU will incur.

Pablo Blazquez Dominguez—Getty Images

Farmers plant rice saplings at a waterlogged rice field on the outskirts of Amritsar, India, on July 5. India is currently the world’s largest exporter of rice, exporting about $11.4 billion of rice in 2023, the country’s sixth-most exported product, according to the Observatory of Economic Complexity. In 2024, the U.S. imported $395 million worth of rice from India, according to the USA Rice Federation. On July 30, Trump said he’s planning to impose a 25% tariff on goods from India beginning Aug. 1, as well as an additional tax because India purchases Russian oil and thus funds the Russian war in Ukraine.

NARINDER NANU—AFP/Getty Images

A herd of cattle is seen on a road in São Félix do Xingu, Pará, Brazil, on June 20. Brazil faces a 50% tariff on exports to the U.S., the highest tariff incurred as a part of Trump’s trade war, partially because of how the Brazilian government has positioned itself against Jair Bolsonaro, an ally of Trump and the country’s former president. The tariff, which is set to begin on Aug. 1, would result in estimated losses of $1 billion for one of the big beef-packers’ lobbies in Brazil, according to Reuters. The U.S. is the second-largest importer of Brazilian beef—which is mostly used for hamburger meat—at 12% of Brazil’s beef exports.

NELSON ALMEIDA—AFP/Getty Images

A coffee producer sifts coffee beans on his farm in Porciúncula, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on July 17. According to The Wall Street Journal, Brazil accounts for 35-40% of the coffee consumed by the U.S., or about 58.4 billion cups per year, considering the U.S. drinks about 146 billion cups of coffee annually, according to Balance Coffee.

Bruna Prado—AP Photo

A local cork producer shows the inside of a cork tree on June 26 in Couço, Portugal. The country exported $1.34 billion worth of cork in 2024, $213.5 million—or about 16%—of which was imported into the U.S., according to the Observatory of Economic Complexity. Cork imports into the U.S. from Portugal will face the same 15% tariff that most goods from the EU will incur.

Adri Salido—Getty Images

An artisan works on a pair of leather boots in Bandung, West Java, Indonesia on July 15. Indonesia is the third-largest exporter of footwear to the U.S., accounting for $1.36 billion of the $20.66 billion market in 2020, according to the United States International Trade Commission. Trump originally inflicted a 32% tariff on Indonesia in April prior to the 90-day tariff suspension, and since then, Indonesia and the U.S. have agreed upon a 19% tariff for Indonesian exports into the U.S.

TIMUR MATAHARI—AFP/Getty Images

Workers load a truck with recently harvested oranges in Limeira, São Paulo, Brazil, July 16. Brazil produces 80% of the world’s orange juice under brands including Minute Maid, Tropicana, and Simply, and 42%—or $1.31 billion—of the country’s exported orange juice is purchased by the U.S., according to Reuters. Trump’s 50% tariff on Brazil, which is set to go into effect on Aug. 1, could cost the industry about $792 million per year, according to The Wall Street Journal. The Journal also reported that orange growers are considering letting their fruit rot on the tree to avoid spending money on the harvest, since orange prices are about half of what they were this time last year.

Ettore Chiereguini—AP Photo

Molten copper is prepared in Montreal, Canada, on July 17. Copper imported into the U.S. will have a 50% tariff tacked onto it beginning Aug. 1 because the U.S. is dependent on other countries for the second-most used material by the Department of Defense, which the White House said is a threat to the country’s national and economic security. In 2024, the U.S. imported $3.97 billion worth of copper articles—which includes refined copper, scrap copper, copper wire, copper plating, and raw copper—from Canada, about 27% of the U.S.’s $14.7 billion worth of imports, according to the Observatory of Economic Complexity.

ANDREJ IVANOV—AFP/Getty Images

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特朗普 关税 贸易战 全球经济 供应链
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