Fortune | FORTUNE 22小时前
Companies are rushing to add crypto to their balance sheet—but experts warn it’s a fad
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越来越多的上市公司将比特币列入资产负债表,这种做法正在成为一种热门的投资趋势。与直接购买加密货币不同,这种“迂回”策略通过购买持有比特币的上市公司股票来间接投资加密货币。尽管从理论上看,公司资产价格变动应直接影响股价,但事实是,配置比特币的公司股价涨幅远超比特币本身的价值增长。以MicroStrategy为例,其股价飙升很大程度上归功于其大量持有比特币。这种现象被一些人比作互联网泡沫时期的“dotcom”效应,即公司名字中加入“dotcom”就能提振股价。然而,专家对此持谨慎态度,认为这种做法缺乏长远投资价值,更像是一种“模因效应”,而非基于专业判断的策略,并预测这种趋势难以持续。

📈 公司配置比特币成为投资新趋势:越来越多的上市公司选择将比特币纳入其资产负债表,为投资者提供了间接投资加密货币的途径。这种策略通过购买持有比特币的上市公司股票来实现,而非直接购买加密货币。

🚀 股价表现与比特币价值脱钩:值得注意的是,持有比特币的公司股价涨幅往往远超其持有的比特币价值增长。例如,MicroStrategy因大量持有比特币而实现了股价的显著增长,甚至在剥离了部分核心业务后,其市值依然保持高位。

🌐 “模因效应”与泡沫隐忧:有专家将此现象类比于2000年互联网泡沫时期,认为这是一种“模因效应”,即公司仅仅因为与热门概念(如比特币)沾边就能获得市场追捧,而非基于实际的投资能力或企业战略。这种做法可能导致公司估值脱离基本面。

📉 专家质疑其可持续性:多位金融学教授对这种趋势的可持续性表示怀疑,认为这并非基于专业知识的投资,而是一种短期热潮。他们建议公司应专注于核心业务,而非将资本用于投机性强的加密货币市场,并预测这种“跟风”行为最终会随着市场回归理性而消退。

Investors looking to get into crypto have a few options. The simplest is to go out and buy some from an exchange like Coinbase or Binance. This method is fast, cheap and easy and lets you hold Bitcoin or Ethereum (or various other coins) directly. Another option is more of a bank shot approach: Buy stock in a publicly-traded company that is putting crypto on its balance sheet and hope that stock goes up.

Surprisingly, this second approach is one of the hottest trades in crypto right now and dozens of firms are clamoring to get in on the action. According to a site called Bitcoin Treasuries, there are now 160 firms around the world with Bitcoin on to their balance sheet, including 90 in the U.S. alone. Those include familiar names like GameStop, Block and Tesla as well as the Trump Media and Technology Group, which is controlled by the family of the President.

In theory, this trade doesn’t make a lot of sense. Sure, the value of a company’s assets help inform its share price but any change in the price of those assets should correlate directly.

If Nike for some reason decided to use its spare cash to buy a million bushels of corn, and the price of corn went up, its share price might increase to the same degree. But this wouldn’t mean an investor bullish on corn should buy Nike stock rather than corn—and, if anything, Nike shareholders would likely punish the firm for using its capital on something totally unrelated to its business.

For some reason, crypto is different. Firms that have piled crypto on to their balance sheets have seen a jump in their share price far out of proportion to the value of the crypto they added.

The most famous example is Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, a once-obscure cybersecurity firm based in Virginia. Several years ago, the firm’s charismatic founder Michael Saylor turned away from Strategy’s core business to focus on acquiring Bitcoin, and today it owns an eye-popping stash worth around $74 billion. This pivot proved wildly successful and, as of late July, the firm’s market cap stood at $112 billion even though it’s dropped its cyber business altogether.

Little wonder that more CEOs are glomming on to the same tactic. After all, if you can achieve a huge spike in your firm’s share price simply by swapping one currency on your balance sheet for another, why not? To get a sense of how popular the tactic has become, here is a screenshot from Bitcoin Treasuries’ list of publicly-traded firms with the most Bitcoins (one Bitcoin is currently worth around $118,000):

A “meme effect”

While some of these firms were set up solely to invest in Bitcoin, many of them are operating firms whose core business involves something else. Mitchell Petersen, a finance professor at Northwestern University, likens the phenomenon to the internet stock bubble of the year 2000 when firms discovered they could boost their share price simply by adding “dotcom” to their name.

Petersen, however, is skeptical of the current trend of firms putting their spare cash into crypto. He points out that big companies like Apple and Microsoft do invest their cash as part of corporate finance operations, but that they do so as part of a broader liquidity strategy. That strategy involves earning a little extra yield by holding short-term assets like money market funds or corporate bonds, while also maintaining a rainy day fund for emergencies or opportunistic acquisitions.

Petersen added that reporting rules do not require firms to disclose the specifics of the “cash equivalents” in their financial statements, but that these almost always consist of safe, liquid assets. The only exception he can recall is mining firms that have occasionally used their cash to put gold on their balance sheet, and justified the move by claiming a special expertise in the direction of gold prices.

This same reasoning can be found in some of the firms above. Specifically, the firms that are engaged in Bitcoin mining and that are well-versed in the cyclical patterns of the crypto industry. Some investors may view it as worth it to pay a premium for their share price.

In the case of other publicly traded firms, though, it is hard to see a compelling reason to believe their Bitcoin purchases are based on any particular expertise. At the same time, the volatile nature of crypto markets means many of these firms could find themselves in a tough spot during an inevitable downturn.

This raises the question of whether the current trend of public firms buying crypto is sustainable. According to another expert on corporate finance, the answer is simple: It’s not sustainable.

“It’s a meme effect that has nothing to do with investment prowess or good corporate strategy,” says Darrell Duffie, a finance professor at Stanford University.

Duffie holds the view that firms should use their capital to invest in their core competencies rather than try to compete with hedge funds on speculative plays. He acknowledges that, in the case of Michael Saylor’s Strategy, the share price of the firm has performed extremely well—but says that, as more and more firms try a copycat approach, the market will eventually come to its senses.

“It’s a fad and it will go away and one day some other fad will take its place,” said Duffie.

On the new Fortune Crypto Playbook vodcast, Fortune

’s senior crypto experts decode the biggest forces shaping crypto today.

Watch or listen now

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上市公司 比特币 加密货币 资产配置 投资策略
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