Fortune | FORTUNE 07月30日 21:11
How sparsely populated Norway amassed $1.8 trillion
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挪威政府养老基金全球(GPFG),亦称挪威主权财富基金,是全球最大的主权财富基金之一,其资产规模庞大,总值达1.8万亿美元。与多数倾向于战略性投资和风险管理的同类基金不同,挪威基金采取了更为被动的指数化投资策略,主要追踪全球股票和债券指数,旨在从国家石油和天然气收入中获取稳定收益。该基金的独特之处在于其严格的投资规则,包括强制性海外投资以规避“荷兰病”,以及对公司在人权、环境、武器和特定行业(如烟草、煤炭)的道德操守进行严格审查,并据此剔除不合规公司。尽管其被动投资策略在市场波动时面临挑战,且有观点认为过度依赖基金收入可能削弱国内产业活力,但该基金已成为挪威经济的重要支柱,为国家福利体系提供有力支持,并在全球范围内推广可持续投资理念。

🛢️ **国家石油财富的全球化投资:** 挪威主权财富基金起源于对国家石油和天然气收入的战略性管理,旨在为国家代际传承财富。基金主要通过追踪全球股票和债券指数进行被动投资,持有全球约1.5%的上市公司股份,其资产规模已达1.8万亿美元,为挪威国民经济提供了远超油气生产本身的收入支持。

⚖️ **严格的投资规则与道德准则:** 基金遵循多项独特且严格的投资规则,最显著的是必须在挪威境外进行投资,以防止“荷兰病”对国内经济造成负面影响。此外,基金设立了独立的道德委员会,并基于广泛的道德准则,禁止投资于存在严重人权侵犯、环境破坏、参与不道德武器生产(如核武器、集束炸弹)以及涉及烟草、煤炭和特定温室气体排放的公司。截至2024年底,已有171家公司因违反这些准则被剔除。

📉 **被动投资与市场风险:** 基金采取被动投资策略,主要追踪全球指数,这使其在市场波动时期面临一定挑战。例如,在2025年初,受全球市场动荡和贸易关税影响,基金报告了上市以来最大的季度亏损之一。有观点认为,这种被动性限制了基金在应对全球资本流动时的适应能力,并引发了关于挪威经济对基金收入过度依赖的担忧,可能影响国内产业的创新和活力。

🌍 **全球影响力与可持续发展:** 尽管采取被动投资,挪威主权财富基金在全球范围内仍具有显著影响力。它积极践行可持续和负责任的投资理念,将环境、社会和公司治理(ESG)因素纳入考量。例如,基金曾投票反对特斯拉CEO的巨额薪酬方案,并在2024年对5%的股东投票提出了反对意见,展现了其在推动全球企业提升治理水平和可持续实践方面的作用。

💰 **对挪威经济与社会福利的贡献:** 基金产生的收益是挪威庞大福利体系的重要资金来源,为挪威提供了免费教育、医疗、儿童保育补贴和慷慨的病假福利等。基金的转移支付约占国家预算的20-25%,并在2024年提议向乌克兰政府提供500亿挪威克朗的支持。基金的稳健运作也为挪威提供了重要的财政缓冲,帮助国家应对石油价格波动和经济周期。

Of all the world’s sovereign wealth funds, Norway’s is one of the most unusual. These giant, state-linked investment vehicles tend to pick and choose what assets they hold to manage risk, maximize returns and further national strategic interests. Not so with Norges Bank Investment Management, which largely tracks global indexes in order to generate an income from the country’s oil and gas revenues. 

Launched in the early 1990s to invest mostly in bonds, the fund has grown to become the largest of its kind by acquiring small equity stakes in thousands of companies across the world. 

With $1.8 trillion of assets, the fund now generates far more income for the Nordic country’s 5.6 million population than oil and gas production. There are growing concerns that the economy has become so dependent on the income from the fund that domestic industries are becoming less innovative and dynamic as a result.

There’s also been criticism of the fund’s passive approach to investing the nation’s wealth, which leaves it with few tools to adapt to the ebb and flow of global capital. This was underscored in April when it reported its biggest loss in six quarters amid the market turmoil unleashed by US President Donald Trump’s threatened trade tariffs. 

What’s special about Norway’s sovereign wealth fund?

The fund stands apart from many of its peers due to its strict investment rules. 

Firstly, it must always invest outside Norway — a rule designed to avert the risk of “Dutch disease,” where resource wealth can end up destabilizing the domestic economy by inflating the local currency and making it harder for other national industries to compete. 

Whereas wealth funds in many other nations act partly to stimulate domestic industries or invest strategically to enhance a country’s soft power abroad, NBIM has limited scope for active investing. The equity portion of the fund, which makes up 70% of the total, holds stakes in the 8,700 listed companies in 44 countries that comprise the FTSE Global All Cap index. As a result, it now owns about 1.5% of listed stocks worldwide. The fixed-income portion of the fund tracks Bloomberg Barclays indexes, with 70% allocated to government bonds and 30% to corporate securities.

Other wealth funds are freer to adjust their priorities and how they achieve them. The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority is increasingly focused on private equity and data-driven investing, while Mubadala Investment Co. plays a central role in diversifying the emirate’s economy through stakes in health care and finance. Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund is leading the kingdom’s Vision 2030 transformation plan, with major bets on mining, gaming and technology. Singapore’s GIC Pte is ramping up its US exposure and taking on more risk in private markets.

What are the origins of Norway’s wealth fund? 

Norway discovered significant oil and gas reserves in the North Sea in 1969, and today is western Europe’s largest producer of the fossil fuels. Anxious to avoid the instability, corruption and weak economic growth experienced in other resource-rich economies, the government imposed heavy taxes on the energy sector and placed strong regulatory controls on the industry. In 1990, after years of political debate, Norway’s parliament created the Petroleum Fund to ensure that oil revenues would benefit current and future generations. The first capital transfer to the fund was made in 1996. As it spread its investments across the world, it shifted gradually to explicitly supporting the national pension system, and was renamed the Government Pension Fund Global in 2006. The fund is managed by NBIM, the asset management arm of Norway’s central bank. 

How did Norway’s wealth fund get so big?

Early on, the fund was padded out with cash from oil taxes, licensing fees and profits from the state energy company. Initially limited to investing in bonds, its mandate expanded over time. Today, it’s the world’s biggest single owner of listed shares. 

The government can’t just grab what it wants from the fund. No more than 3% of its value can be diverted annually to the national budget, a rule intended to preserve the wealth for future generations. The rest is kept for new investments.  

When comparing its investment returns with those of other sovereign wealth funds, the Norwegian fund achieved a relatively average performance over the five years to 2023, returning 7.45%, according to research consultancy Global SWF. That’s less than Abu Dhabi fund Mubadala, at 10.1%, and China Investment Corporation, with 8.6%, but higher than the 4.5% return for Singapore’s Temasek and 5.2% for the Korean Investment Corporation. 

How has the Norwegian fund’s mandate evolved?

The fund has increased its investments in equities over time and added real estate and renewable energy infrastructure. It has also emphasized sustainability and responsible investing, with a growing focus on environmental, social and governance factors — an approach that’s not changed in response to the US Trump administration’s backlash against “woke capitalism.”

What are the Norwegian fund’s ethical investing principles? 

Since 2004, the fund has operated under ethical guidelines set by the finance ministry and approved by parliament. An independent Ethics Council oversees the guidelines, which prohibit investments in companies involved in “gross corruption” or serious violations of human and labor rights, or that contribute to severe environmental damage. They also exclude companies that produce certain weapons, such as nuclear arms and cluster bombs. 

Some 67 companies had been dropped from the fund by the end of 2024 due to their conduct. These included Indian firm Adani Ports, for its business with the armed forces of Myanmar, and the communications company Bezeq, for its activities in Israeli settlements in the West Bank, which are illegal under international law. A further 104 companies have been removed from the fund because of what they sell: The fund’s guidelines prohibit investments in the cannabis industry, tobacco and coal. It also avoids companies that are responsible for “unacceptable greenhouse gas emissions” — even though the fund itself is infused with income from the sale of fossil fuels.

Will the Norwegian wealth fund change its investing mandate? 

NBIM reported a 0.6% loss on its investments — equivalent to $40 billion — in the first three months of 2025. The market downturn has deepened since then in response to President Trump’s sweeping US tariffs, sparking a debate in Norway over how to protect the fund from a more unpredictable economic climate. About 40% of the fund’s equity holdings are in the US, and some Norwegian politicians say it should shift more investments to Europe so it’s less exposed to volatile US markets. US bonds made up 9% of the fund’s holdings at the end of 2024. Norway’s finance minister, former NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, has said the fund remains committed to its long-term strategy while “continuing to assess risk management options.”

Norway’s conservative opposition has proposed revising the fund’s guidelines to allow it to buy shares in companies that make nuclear weapons. The current restriction precludes the fund from investing in much of the European arms industry, which is in line for a profit windfall as governments embark on the biggest rearmament since the Cold War in response to Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Norway currently supplies about 30% of Europe’s gas, and some politicians have called for more cash transfers from the fund to support the government in Kyiv, arguing that Norway’s oil and gas industry has made massive profits from the European energy crisis that followed Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. 

The fund’s leadership has argued repeatedly for adding private equity to its investments, a call that the finance ministry has rejected, wary of the sector’s high fees and relative lack of transparency. The debate is ongoing.

What does Norway do with the wealth fund’s available profits?

Some of them go to support Norway’s extensive welfare system, which provides free education and health care, subsidized child care and generous sick leave. Norway ranks third on the UN’s global Human Development Index, after Iceland and Switzerland. In 2024, transfers from the fund accounted for roughly 20–25% of the national budget. The government has proposed to transfer 50 billion kroner ($4.85 billion) from the fund to support the government of Ukraine. 

What’s the fund’s impact on Norway and the world?

The fund has been a financial buffer that enabled the country to weather fluctuations in oil prices and the economy and maintain the country’s fiscal stability. 

The fund has furthered Norway’s soft power by promoting sustainable business practices worldwide. In June 2024, its managers voted against Tesla Inc. Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk’s record high compensation package of $56 billion that’s since risen in value and has been contested in court. The fund issues its voting intentions five days before the annual meetings of the companies it invests in, and opposed board recommendations in 5% of shareholder votes in 2024. 

Yet there’s a debate about how reliant Norway has become on the money generated by the fund. Critics say it’s making the country’s political leaders complacent and its population less productive. They point to data showing national productivity has worsened relative to other wealthy nations in the past two decades. The government is spending growing sums to subsidize sick leave for workers, and student test stores have been on a downward trend. 

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