Ireland’s upcoming Renewable Electricity Support Scheme (RESS) auction round 5 will likely be another expensive exercise, according to global power markets analytics firm Aurora Energy Research. It believes RESS 5 will fail to meet procurement targets due to ongoing project risks and high costs.
Ireland plans to run RESS 5 from August 28, 2025 to September 10, 2025, with EirGrid opening qualification applications on May 29, 2025 (see Ireland: RESS 5 Renewable Energy Auction On May 29, 2025).
Aurora says that the government intends to award a maximum of 4,500 GWh as part of this year’s RESS auction. However, it sees the final auction volume settling around 3,970 GWh, thus missing the target.
It believes that 2.6 GW of eligible solar and onshore wind capacity, including hybrid projects, is ready to enter RESS 5. Another 6.3 GW is potentially eligible, but does not have confirmed grid-connection agreements, which are a requirement to join the fray.
Auction caps will likely be the stumbling block, as per the analysts, without adjustments to which, the procurement targets are unlikely to be met. It expects the auction this year to clear near the RESS 4 cap of €93.50/MWh for onshore wind, and €110.0/MWh for solar PV (see Ireland Concludes RESS 4 Auction Round With Over 2 GWh Capacity).
In RESS 4, Ireland declared 2,071 GWh of clean energy capacity as successful, comprising 960 MW of solar PV (see Ireland Concludes RESS 4 Auction Round With Over 2 GWh Capacity).
“RESS 5 is likely to be under-procured, echoing the shortfalls of RESS 4,” said Aurora Energy Research’s Advisory Senior Associate, Nick Civetta. “The current price cap mechanisms are expected to constrain procurement well below the minimum target, with onshore wind in particular facing challenges to clear.”
Ireland’s total installed solar PV capacity as of June 17, 2025, exceeded 1.7 GW, having grown by close to 160% in 2 years. RESS has been a driving force for this growth, along with corporate power purchase agreements (CPPA). Aurora analysts argue that RESS 5 is vital to the country’s 2030 decarbonization targets of 9 GW onshore wind and 8 GW solar PV capacity. It sees this auction round as the ‘last viable’ auction for delivery by 2030.
Similar sentiments are echoed by Niall Donnelly of the Dublin-based law firm Philip Lee. He writes, “RESS 5 represents a significant opportunity for renewable energy developers in Ireland, but it imposes strict eligibility, compliance, and delivery requirements. Early and thorough preparation is essential to ensure qualification, successful participation in the auction, and ongoing compliance throughout the support period. Participants should pay particular attention to the financial security requirements, milestone deadlines, and community benefit obligations, as well as the potential for audits and regulatory scrutiny.”
A 2024 report by the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland (SEAI) stated that the country will likely miss the 2030 target in all its scenarios owing to a delay in the roll-out of all types of variable renewables, including solar PV, onshore wind, and offshore wind (see Ireland Far From Achieving 2030 Wind & Solar Targets, Says SEAI).
