国际货币基金组织（IMF）近日下调了对俄罗斯2025年经济增长的预测，主要原因是政策收紧和石油价格下跌。此前，俄罗斯经济在制裁和军事支出激增的背景下表现出乎意料的韧性，但IMF指出，根据最新的经济数据显示，俄罗斯的零售销售、工业生产和GDP增长均出现相对疲软。制造业活动收缩，就业放缓，一季度GDP增长率降至1.4%。尽管IMF此前曾上调2024年的增长预测，但近期数据显示俄罗斯经济正面临显著放缓，军事支出驱动的经济繁荣似乎正在消退。与此同时，美国总统特朗普发出警告，要求俄罗斯在10天内与乌克兰达成停火协议，否则将面临美国实施关税等惩罚性措施。

📊 IMF下调俄罗斯2025年经济增长预测，从4月预测的1.5%降至0.9%，并预计2026年增长1%。主要原因是俄罗斯国内政策收紧以及国际油价下跌，这些因素共同导致了经济增长的放缓。

📉 近期经济数据显示俄罗斯经济增长势头减弱，IMF指出零售销售、工业生产和官方月度GDP数据均反映出“相对疲软”。具体表现为上月制造业活动收缩，就业市场走软，以及第一季度GDP增长率从上一季度的4.5%显著降至1.4%。

🚀 俄罗斯经济在经历了两年制裁和军事支出激增的“战时繁荣”后，正面临显著放缓。此前IMF曾上调2024年增长预测至4.3%，显示出经济曾有强劲动能，但近期数据显示这一势头正在消退，经济部长也曾警告国家“处于衰退边缘”。

🇺🇸 地缘政治压力加剧，美国总统特朗普向俄罗斯发出最后通牒，要求其在10天内与乌克兰达成停火协议，否则将面临美国的关税和其他惩罚性措施。这一警告导致国际油价上涨，但特朗普对此表示不担忧，并表示美国国内有能力增加石油产量。

The IMF has downgraded Russia's 2025 growth forecast due to policy tightening and lower oil prices.Russia's economy faces a slowdown after defying sanctions and a military spending boom.President Donald Trump is threatening tariffs if Russia doesn't reach a ceasefire with Ukraine in 10 days.

Russia's wartime boom is faltering — and the International Monetary Fund is the latest to weigh in with a downgrade.

"We are expecting Russia's economic growth to slow down in 2025, and that is very much due to the policy tightening and lower oil prices," said Petya Koeva Brooks, a deputy director of the research department at the IMF, on Tuesday.

After two years of defying sanctions and riding a military spending boom, the country is now facing a sharp slowdown, according to the IMF. The organization has slashed its growth forecast and flagged weakness across key sectors.

The IMF now expects Russia's economy to grow 0.9% in 2025, down from the 1.5% it had projected in April. It's also expecting the country's economy to grow 1% in 2026

Koeva Brooks said the downgrade was prompted by recent economic data in Russia's retail sales, industrial production, and official monthly GDP figures, which reflected "relative weakness."

Russia's manufacturing activity contracted last month, employment has softened, and GDP growth slowed to 1.4% in Q1, down sharply from 4.5% the previous quarter.

The latest downgrade comes just months after an upward revision to 2024 growth, which the IMF raised to 4.3%, citing stronger-than-expected momentum in the fourth quarter. That compares to full-year growth of 4.1% in 2023.

While Moscow has managed to dodge economic collapse since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 — in part by pouring cash into defense contracts — the wartime boom that once risked overheating now appears to be unraveling.

Just last month, Russia's economy minister, Maxim Reshetnikov, warned that the country was "on the brink" of a recession.

Pressure from Washington

IMF's updated outlook on Russia's economy came days after the country's central bank cut its key interest rates from 20% to 18% to boost demand as inflation slows.

Meanwhile, geopolitical pressure on Moscow is intensifying.

On Tuesday, President Donald Trump issued a sharp warning to Russian President Vladimir Putin saying the US would impose tariffs and other punitive measures if Russia fails to agree to a ceasefire with Ukraine within 10 days.

The ultimatum sent oil prices surging to around $70 a barrel, their highest level in over a month. But Trump downplayed concerns about potential blowback from additional sanctions.

"I don't worry about it. We have so much oil in our country. We'll just step it up even further," he said, referring to a potential boost in production.