Fortune | FORTUNE 07月30日 15:07
Ray Dalio warns investors to allocate 15% of their portfolio to gold and crypto because of skyrocketing U.S. government debt
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桥水基金创始人瑞·达里奥建议投资者将15%的投资组合配置于黄金和加密货币,并认为这是最佳的风险回报比。他本人也持有黄金和部分比特币,但强调黄金的优越性。达里奥指出,货币贬值是核心问题,而黄金历来是有效的对冲工具。比特币近年来也被视为价值储存的替代品,被许多人视为“替代货币”。然而,他并非建议投资者过度集中投资黄金,而是强调多元化配置的重要性。达里奥还对人工智能热潮推高了“七巨头”股票的估值表示担忧,并重申了对高估值股票的警惕。他长期关注美国经济和不断膨胀的联邦债务,认为债务问题可能引发“经济心脏病”,而市场尚未充分消化这一风险。

💰 **黄金与加密货币的配置建议**:桥水基金创始人瑞·达里奥建议投资者将15%的投资组合配置于黄金和加密货币,并认为这能提供最佳的风险回报比。他本人持有黄金和部分比特币,但更看好黄金,认为其在对冲货币贬值方面具有历史悠久的优势,而比特币也被视为一种“替代货币”。

📈 **对“七巨头”股票的估值担忧**:达里奥认为,人工智能的炒作已经使得Alphabet、Amazon和Meta等“七巨头”股票的估值过高,相对于其未来现金流的现值而言,已经变得昂贵。他强调,即使是伟大的公司,如果定价过高,其投资价值也会大打折扣,投资时必须审慎考虑定价因素。

📉 **美国联邦债务的潜在风险**:达里奥长期以来一直关注美国经济和不断增长的联邦债务,他曾将不断增加的债务支付比作“动脉中的斑块”。他认为,由债务增长可能引发的“经济心脏病”尚未在债券或货币市场得到充分定价。国会预算办公室的数据显示,未来十年,联邦债务的利息支付可能高达13.8万亿美元,这进一步加剧了对财政可持续性的担忧。

⚖️ **多元化配置的重要性**:尽管建议配置黄金和加密货币,但达里奥也强调了投资组合多元化的重要性,不建议投资者将过多的资金集中在单一资产上。他认为,充分的多元化是规避风险、实现稳健投资回报的关键策略之一。

🔍 **对市场定价的审慎态度**:达里奥的观点反映了他对市场定价的审慎态度,尤其是在面对技术炒作和宏观经济不确定性时。他提醒投资者,不能仅仅因为一家公司前景光明就忽视其估值,高估值可能隐藏着巨大的风险。

Instead, the billionaire founder of Bridgwater Associates is urging investors to allocate 15% of their portfolio to gold and crypto. While he didn’t reveal how he allocates his own portfolio, this percentage represented “the best return-to-risk ratio,” he said on The Master Investor Podcast with Wilfred Frost.

Dalio noted he owns both gold and crypto, but with a caveat, he owns some Bitcoin but not much.

“I’m strongly preferring gold to Bitcoin, but that’s up to you,” he said.

The larger issue is the devaluation of money, and gold has provided a hedge against this issue throughout history. Bitcoin, in recent years, has also played a similar role as a store of value, and “it’s being perceived by many as an alternative money,” he added.

Still, Dalio said he also doesn’t want investors to overload on gold, instead saying, “I want them to diversify well.” 

Dalio declined to Fortune comment through a spokesperson.

Both Bitcoin and gold have been on a tear in 2025, with both assets up about 25% year-to-date. Due to further adoption by companies and nations, John Haar, the managing director of Bitcoin-focused financial services company Swan Bitcoin, sees the price of the cryptocurrency rising above $200,000 per coin by the end of 2025.

On stocks, Dalio said the recent hype over AI has made Magnificent Seven stocks like Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta relatively expensive, despite the grand promises of the technology. 

“The Magnificent 7 have become rather expensive relative to what even optimists would say are the present value of the future cash flows,” he said. 

Dalio has warned previously about buying into overvalued stocks even when a company looks great.

“A great company that gets expensive is much worse than a bad company that’s really cheap, so you have to look at pricing” he told entrepreneur David Freidberg on the All-In Podcast earlier this year. 

The state of the U.S. economy and the ballooning federal debt have been favorite topics of Dalio’s for years. He previously compared escalating debt payments to “plaque in the arteries,” and said on the podcast with Frost that the “economic heart attack” which could come about because of increasing debt has not been priced into either the bond or currency markets.

Dalio’s warning about bonds goes hand-in-hand with his skepticism about how the government is handling its debt, said Stephan Shipe, a finance professor at Wake Forest University and founder of financial advisory firm Scholar Financial Advising. 

“If there’s a lack of faith in the government’s ability to manage the deficit and repay debt, you’re likely to see interest rates rise to compensate for that higher risk. That pushes down the value of existing bonds, which makes them less of a safe haven than they’ve been in the past,” Shipe said.

The trend of escalating interest payments on the federal debt continues; the interest payments could cost the government $13.8 trillion over the next 10 years, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

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瑞·达里奥 黄金 加密货币 投资策略 宏观经济
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