根据一项新的关税模拟器显示，若中美贸易谈判未能达成协议，中国对美出口可能在2027年前锐减4880亿美元。此举将主要影响计算机、电子设备、玩具和服装等行业。然而，这些商品并非消失，而是可能被重新导向东南亚、欧洲和俄罗斯等市场。模拟预测，越南和印度将分别接收更多中国商品，而俄罗斯的进口额也将显著增加。目前，中美双方正就贸易僵局进行新一轮谈判，为达成协议而努力。

📊 贸易战冲击：一项新的关税模拟器预测，若中美未能达成贸易协议，到2027年中国对美国的出口额可能减少4880亿美元。这主要源于美国可能实施的更高关税，尤其是在4月提出的基础上，将进一步影响两国贸易往来。

💻 行业影响：美国消费者和企业将感受到明显影响，尤其是在计算机、电子设备、玩具和服装等领域。这些商品关税的提高将直接导致成本上升，并可能影响相关产业的供应链和价格。

🌏 市场转移：面对美国市场的潜在萎缩，中国正寻求将出口转向其他地区。模拟预测，东南亚将成为主要受益者，预计将接收大量中国商品。此外，欧洲（如意大利、法国、荷兰）和俄罗斯也将看到中国出口的增长，这为中国提供了新的贸易机遇。

📈 谈判进展：中美两国代表正在进行新一轮贸易谈判，试图在即将到来的高额关税生效前达成协议。双方已进行了多次会谈，并就贸易框架达成了一致，这为解决贸易争端带来了一线希望。官员们也表达了对谈判前景的谨慎乐观。

A new tariff simulator shows that Chinese exports to the US could drop by $488 billion by 2027.China may redirect exports to Southeast Asia, Europe, and Russia.Delegations from the US and China are holding a third round of trade talks in Stockholm this week.

Chinese exports to the US are expected to plummet without a trade deal.

A new tariff scenario simulator by the Observatory of Economic Complexity shows Chinese exports to the US could decrease by $488 billion from now till 2027, if the two countries cannot come to an agreement and the higher tariffs on China proposed in April come to pass.

For US consumers, the sectors most affected will be computers, electrical equipment, toys, and clothing, according to the simulator.

The OEC simulator forecasts for China are based on what it calls the "Liberation Day scenario," which refers to a 34% tariff imposed on China on April 2, on top of duties already pre-existing before the second Trump administration.

But these goods won't simply remain in China. In place of the US, the simulator predicts that Chinese exports to Southeast Asia will see a major spike, followed by smaller gains across Europe, for EU members like Italy, France, and the Netherlands.

According to the simulator, Vietnam and India could each receive around $38 billion and $40 billion more worth of Chinese products in two years, while Russia could potentially import $33.1 billion more from its neighbour.

The predicted figures come as delegations from both countries race to negotiate a truce before high tariffs exceeding 100% on Chinese goods return on August 12. Teams led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng convened in Stockholm on Monday, marking their third meeting in three months.

The delegations previously met twice in Geneva and London in May and June and agreed on a trade framework.

Ahead of the meeting, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said in a Monday interview with MSNBC that being able to meet with China's negotiators regularly gives the US "a good footing for these negotiations."

Last week, in an interview with Fox News, Bessent said there will "likely" be an extension to the current tariff pause and that "trade is in a very good place with China."

On April 2, the Trump administration first imposed a 34% tariff on China, then escalated the duties to as high as 245% after a few weeks of back-and-forth retaliations with China. The duties were later suspended for 90 days on May 12 to help ease trade negotiations, but the baseline 10% tariff remains.

The White House and the Treasury did not immediately respond to requests for comments.