微软研究人员基于20万份Copilot聊天记录，分析了生成式AI和大型语言模型对不同职业的影响。研究发现，涉及信息提供和沟通的职业，如翻译、历史学家和作家，最有可能受到AI的影响。然而，研究人员也指出，AI目前尚不能完全取代任何单一职业，仅能辅助完成部分任务。尽管AI对办公类工作的重叠度可能高于体力劳动，但其他AI应用也可能影响机械操作类岗位。研究强调了持续理解AI社会经济影响的重要性。

📊 **信息处理与沟通类职业受AI影响最甚**：微软研究显示，翻译、历史学家和作家等主要从事信息提供和沟通工作的职业，与AI的重叠度最高，因此最有可能被AI技术影响。这表明AI在理解、生成和传递信息方面的能力，使其在这些领域具有显著的替代或辅助潜力。

⚙️ **AI尚不能完全取代单一职业**：尽管AI在许多任务上提供支持，尤其是在研究、写作和沟通方面，但微软的研究作者强调，AI目前还不能完全独立地执行任何一个完整的职业。这意味着AI更多地是作为一种辅助工具，而非完全的替代品，其影响更多体现在任务层面而非职业整体。

🏢 **AI对办公类工作影响大于体力劳动**：基于Copilot聊天数据分析，研究发现AI与办公类工作的任务重叠度更高，这与过去的技术革命对劳动力市场的影响方式不同。而像静脉采血技师、护理助理和危险品处理工人等体力劳动或特定技能类工作，受到的影响相对较小。

⚠️ **AI的广泛影响需持续关注**：研究人员特别提到，该数据仅针对大型语言模型，其他AI应用（如自动驾驶技术）也可能对机械操作类职业（如卡车司机）产生影响。因此，随着AI技术的加速应用，持续研究和理解其对社会经济的广泛影响至关重要。

AI chatbots are likely to automate tasks related to communications, according to Microsoft researchers.Researchers analyzed 200,000 conversations with Microsoft Copilot.They caution that just because a job overlaps with AI doesn't mean layoffs could be in the offing.

An AI chatbot is a pretty good interpreter. It can't dredge a river.

Microsoft researchers analyzed which careers are most and least likely to be affected by generative AI and large language models (LLMs) based on an anonymized dataset of 200,000 conversations between users in the United States and the tech giant's Copilot chatbot, formerly known as Bing Copilot.

They found that the jobs most likely to be affected involve those providing and communicating information, including translators, historians, and writers.

The researchers avoided the most pressing question for AI: the extent to which it will eliminate or even grow jobs in the workforce. Rival CEOs have disputed Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei's view that AI could wipe out up to half of white collar entry-level jobs in the next five years. Others in tech, like Mark Cuban, think AI will be a net job creator.

The paper doesn't cover whether interpreters and translators (the occupations they found that most overlapped with AI) should be fearful about their future. Likewise, they didn't conclude that dredge operators (among the least affected occupations) are safe.

"Our research shows that AI supports many tasks, particularly those involving research, writing, and communication, but does not indicate it can fully perform any single occupation," Kiran Tomlinson, a senior researcher at Microsoft and the lead author of the paper, said in a statement to Business Insider. "As AI adoption accelerates, it's important that we continue to study and better understand its societal and economic impact."

Based on the chatbot data, researchers could see what users were asking the AI to do and what the AI was performing in response. They could then compare these findings to the types of tasks that are most likely to overlap with an AI chatbot.

Their findings echo the growing research and views that AI chatbots will likely have a much greater overlap with office jobs than those requiring physical work or interactions. If this holds true, it means AI would change a different part of the workforce than past technological revolutions.

Among the least affected jobs are phlebotomists, nursing assistants, and hazardous materials removal workers.

This doesn't mean physical labor jobs aren't affected. The researchers also cautioned that their data only concerns large language models.

"Other applications of AI could certainly affect occupations involving operating and monitoring machinery, such as truck driving," they wrote.