Fortune | FORTUNE 前天 14:09
As if the trade war never happened, stocks could pull off a feat not seen since the late-1990s boom
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美国股市近期屡创新高,一扫此前贸易战阴霾,华尔街多位策略师上调了标普500指数的年内目标价。此前因贸易摩擦和经济担忧笼罩的市场情绪,随着特朗普政府暂缓部分关税、企业盈利稳健、消费者支出保持韧性以及美联储的货币政策调控,已逐渐转为乐观。分析师们认为,贸易谈判的进展、强劲的企业财报以及对降息的预期,都为股市的持续上涨提供了支撑。部分市场人士甚至预测,美国股市有望迎来类似20世纪90年代末的“咆哮”增长,开启新一轮的“咆哮20年代”。

📈 股市触及新高,扭转了此前贸易战带来的恐慌局面。总统特朗普暂缓激进关税、企业盈利强劲、消费者支出稳健以及美联储有效的货币政策,共同促成了市场的V型反弹,甚至吸引了外国投资者的回归。

📊 华尔街分析师上调股市预期,摩根士丹利、奥本海默和富国银行等机构均对标普500指数给出了乐观的预测。例如,奥本海默将年内目标价上调至7100点,摩根士丹利则预计至2026年中期可达7200点,显示出对市场前景的信心。

💡 乐观情绪的驱动因素包括贸易谈判进展顺利,消除了贸易战的威胁;企业盈利表现强劲,尤其科技巨头凭借AI等优势持续扩大市场份额;以及美联储的货币政策有效控制了通胀,同时避免了经济衰退,为市场提供了稳定的宏观环境。

🚀 长期来看,部分市场老将认为本十年有望重现“咆哮20年代”的盛况。生产力提升、资本支出增加以及持续的消费者支出,将支撑股市的长期上涨。有预测认为,到2030年,标普500指数有望达到10000点。

The stock market has been on a hot streak lately, notching record high after record high, and some bulls on Wall Street think the party isn’t over.

That marks a stunning reversal from the panic that gripped investors in April, when President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs shocked the world. Stocks, Treasury bonds, and the dollar crashed. Markets started pricing in a recession, and analysts slashed their forecasts.

But Trump put his most aggressive tariff rates on hold, corporate earnings remained robust, consumers stayed resilient, and stocks rebounded. Even foreign investors jumped back into U.S. markets. Meanwhile, his administration has negotiated several trade deals, including one with the European Union on Sunday that removes the threat of a damaging trade war.

Now that the fog of war is lifting, upbeat forecasts that predated Liberation Day are back, meaning stocks could put up big numbers again—as if the tariff shock from a few months ago was all just a bad dream.

On Monday, Oppenheimer chief investment strategist John Stoltzfus hiked his S&P 500 price target for this year to 7,100 from 5,950, reinstating the outlook he initially made in December 2024.

“This year reminds us of the classic Charles Dickens quote, ‘It was the best of times, it was the worst of times,'” he said in his latest note. “Although much uncertainty and worry prevailed for some time both with trade policy and geopolitical events, and given the multitude of potential outcomes, we’d note that cooler heads prevailed — leading to positive outcomes at least for now.”

He cited progress on trade negotiations, strong corporate earnings, and the Federal Reserve’s deft handling of monetary policy, which cooled inflation without causing a recession.

If the S&P 500 hits 7,100 this year, it would represent a gain of about 21% for 2025, marking a third straight year with a surge of more than 20%. That hasn’t happened since the late 1990s, when the U.S. economy and the stock market boomed.

Also on Monday, Morgan Stanley equity strategist Michael Wilson said the S&P 500 could reach 7,200 by mid-2026, explaining that he is starting to lean closer to that more optimistic “bull case” scenario.

He cited strong earnings as well as AI adoption, the weak dollar, Trump’s tax cuts, pent-up demand, and expectations for Fed rate cuts in early 2026.

Another member of the 7,000 club is Chris Harvey, Wells Fargo Securities’ head of equity strategy, who has stuck by his S&P 500 forecast of 7,007 even during the trade war.

Last week, he reaffirmed it, predicting big tech companies will continue fueling the stock market’s rally despite Trump’s trade policies.

“What we’re seeing is the winners continue to win,” he told Bloomberg. “The uber-cap companies have the higher margins, are gaining more market share. There is a real secular trend in AI that will continue.”

And over the longer term, this decade still looks like it will be another “roaring 20s,” according to market veteran Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research.

On Monday, he backed his thesis, which he first posited in August 2020, as productivity advances, a wave of capital outlays, and the endurance of consumer spending will keep stocks buoyant.

“If the remainder of the decade continues to play out as the Roaring 2020s, we predict that the S&P 500 will start the next decade at 10,000,” Yardeni wrote in a note.

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