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The aviation industry can breathe a sigh of relief after dodging tariffs in Trump's EU trade deal
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近期,美国与欧盟达成一项新的贸易协定,为航空业带来了重大利好,成功避免了此前担心的惩罚性关税。此举对高度依赖全球供应链的航空业而言至关重要,因为关税将对其运营造成巨大冲击。在协议达成前,航空公司和飞机制造商已积极寻求应对方案,例如通过将飞机交付至非美国地区或在无航空关税的国家注册来规避潜在的关税。尽管贸易协定为经济前景带来了更多可预测性,但部分公司可能会将关税成本转嫁给消费者,这可能影响旅客的出行意愿。然而,整体经济增长和贸易进展的积极信号,也预示着旅客支出的潜力。

✈️ 航空业迎来重大利好:美欧贸易协定成功避免了对航空器及其零部件征收关税,这对高度依赖全球供应链的航空业来说是一项重大胜利,缓解了此前对惩罚性关税的担忧。

🌍 供应链的脆弱性与应对策略:航空业的全球供应链复杂且面临疫情压力,为应对潜在关税,航空公司如达美航空采取了将飞机先交付至日本再进行国际飞行的策略,以规避直接进口关税;瑞安航空也考虑在英国注册飞机等方案。

📈 经济前景与消费者影响:虽然贸易协定的达成增加了经济的可预测性,但部分公司可能将关税成本转嫁消费者,这或导致旅行需求下降。然而,GDP增长和贸易进展等积极因素也可能提振消费者在旅行上的支出意愿。

📉 航空公司盈利预测调整:部分航空公司(如美国航空)在报告创纪录营收的同时,下调了利润预测,反映出宏观经济环境和潜在成本增加的影响,但公司高层对未来旅行需求仍持乐观态度。

Donald Trump departing Air Force One.

The EU-US trade deal includes a significant win for aviation after months of fears that the industry would face punishing tariffs.

At April's "Liberation Day" announcement, Donald Trump initially imposed a 20% tariff on all exports from the European Union. Since negotiations have only seen that lowered to 15%, the deal is largely being seen as a win for the US.

However, some European companies, like Airbus, still have reason to be cheerful because aircraft and their components are facing zero tariffs.

The aviation industry has faced a nervous few months of waiting, given its reliance on a highly complex and global supply chain — already under huge strain since the COVID-19 pandemic.

Optimism was already boosted at last month's Paris Air Show when Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said he favoured returning to a zero-tariff agreement from 1979, in line with much of the industry's top players.

Meanwhile, planemakers and airlines have been devising creative ways to avoid Trump's levies.

For example, Delta Air Lines deployed a similar tactic from a past US-EU trade war.

In May, the airline had an Airbus plane delivered to Japan instead of the US. So long as the jet was only used for international flights, it wouldn't be officially imported to the US, so there would be no tariffs to pay.

The Irish budget airline Ryanair, Europe's biggest carrier by passengers, was also preparing ways to limit the impact.

CEO Michael O'Leary said in an earnings call last week that, even though its deals with Boeing made the planemaker responsible for paying fees, the airline was willing to help find ways around it. He suggested registering planes in the UK, which also faces no aviation tariffs, or even delaying some deliveries.

However, the concerns aren't over for everyone yet.

While reaching a deal makes the future of the economy more predictable, many companies are expected to pass the costs of tariffs onto consumers.

That could therefore see travel demand further falter as people find themselves with less money to spend.

In its second-quarter earnings last week, American Airlines reported record revenue but lowered its profit forecast. It predicts adjusted earnings per share between a loss of 20 cents and a profit of 80 cents, down from profits between $1.70 and $2.70 issued in January.

But CEO Robert Isom said he was more optimistic about demand given growing GDP and trade-deal progress.

"I think that all lends to a customer that's more willing to get out there and spend on travel and do some things that they want to do," he said.

Read the original article on Business Insider

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美欧贸易协定 航空业 关税 供应链 旅行需求
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