Fortune | FORTUNE 07月28日 00:18
‘US exceptionalism roars back’ as markets defy doomsayers and draw record foreign inflows after panic over Trump tariffs
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尽管美国消费者在特朗普政府的关税政策下表现出非凡的韧性,外国投资者似乎也对市场波动表现出强大的承受能力。美国财政部最新数据显示,外国投资者在5月份净流入3111亿美元,创下历史新高,扭转了4月份142亿美元的流出。这一现象与许多评论员曾预言美国“例外论”将终结的观点形成鲜明对比。市场参与者对经济起伏的接受度远超预期,美国在金融市场的吸引力依然强劲。尽管美元表现疲软,欧洲和中国股市表现优于美国,但美国市场整体韧性依然可见,对“他人的善意”的信心得到了最新数据的验证。

🇺🇸 外国投资者对美国证券市场的信心不减,5月份净流入额创下历史新高,达到3111亿美元,显示出即使在市场动荡和贸易政策不确定性增加的情况下,美国市场依然具有强大的吸引力。

📈 尽管此前市场曾担忧美国经济“例外论”的终结,尤其是在“解放日”事件后股市大幅下跌,但5月份的数据表明,市场对美国经济的接受度高于预期,外国资本的涌入反驳了悲观论调。

📉 尽管美元在今年上半年表现疲软,且欧洲和中国股市的表现优于美国,但美国市场整体的韧性依然得到体现。这表明,尽管存在挑战,外国投资者对美国市场的长期前景仍持乐观态度。

💼 尽管特朗普政府的关税政策和持续的贸易谈判给市场带来不确定性,但外国投资者的强劲流入表明,他们能够承受这些波动,并且美国市场的基本面和吸引力仍然是关键因素。

💡 市场资深人士的观点认为,那些对美国债券、股票和美元前景持悲观态度的人可能被低估了市场的承受能力。最新的财政部数据显示,市场对美国资产的信心得到了验证,这与一些华尔街知名人士此前的警告形成了对比。

Just as American consumers have demonstrated extraordinary resilience amid President Donald Trump’s tariffs, foreign investors apparently have a strong stomach for market chaos.

The most recent data from the Treasury Department shows that foreigners plowed a net $311.1 billion into U.S. securities in May, a record high, after pulling out $14.2 billion in April.

“All this is notable because so many commentators prophesied the end of US ‘exceptionalism’ after the turbulence of recent months,” Robin Brooks, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, wrote Wednesday in a post titled “US exceptionalism roars back” on his Substack. “The reality is that markets are far more accepting of all the ups and downs than people realize. US ‘exceptionalism’ is alive and well.”

Meanwhile, for the 12 months through May, net foreign inflows neared their all-time high from July 2023, when they topped $1.4 trillion to mark the peak of the American exceptionalism narrative in markets, he added.

The rebound in May signals a stunning turnaround from April, as Wall Street feared the end of U.S. supremacy in the global economy and markets.

In the immediate aftermath of “Liberation Day,” the S&P 500 flirted with a bear market, crashing nearly 20% from its prior high while the Nasdaq passed that threshold.

The 10-year Treasury yield initially plunged but then soared more than 70 basis points in just days as investors worried top U.S. debt holders would dump their holdings.

But a month later, the opposite happened.

“The hurdle for the US to experience genuine capital flight is high and certainly wasn’t breached in April,” Brooks wrote.

To be sure, the 10-year yield remains above its pre-Liberation Day level, and the dollar has suffered its worst first half in more than 50 years.

And while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have retaken their prior records and continue to charge even higher, stock indexes in Europe and China are still outperforming U.S. rivals.

Meanwhile, talks with Japan and trade partners have cemented tariffs rates that are higher than the initial 10% baseline. Negotiations with other countries are still ongoing, and failure to reach a deal could send tariff rates even higher.

Nevertheless, market veteran Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, was also heartened by the data showing record inflows into U.S. markets.

“So, we take comfort from the data that confirm that it is the bears on the outlook for a massive selloff in US bonds, US equities, and the US dollar who might be delusional, not us,” he wrote on Monday. “Our faith in the kindness of strangers has been validated by the latest Treasury data.

Just a few months ago, top names on Wall Street were sounding the alarm on Trump’s tariffs and their long-term repercussions.

Citadel founder and CEO Ken Griffin warned in April that the country was eroding its “brand,” explaining that from American culture to its financial and military strength, the U.S. is an aspiration for most of the world.

 “On the financial markets, no brand can compare to the brand of the U.S. Treasuries… we put that brand at risk,” he said, adding that it takes a very long time to remove the tarnish on a brand. 

In May, Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic advisor at Allianz, said the era of U.S. exceptionalism has “been put on pause.”

And last month, Deutsche Bank said America’s prized exceptionalism is the collateral damage of Trump’s tariff war.

“Our outlook argues that the structural foundations of U.S. exceptionalism—particularly the ability to finance itself cheaply via the dollar’s reserve status—have begun to erode,” economist Jim Reid wrote in a note. “So we remain structurally bearish on the dollar and expect U.S. term premia to keep rising.”

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外国投资 美国市场 资本流动 经济韧性 特朗普关税
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