Fortune | FORTUNE 10小时前
BMW backs hydrogen for transport with first series production car in 2028 — Is H2 the future after all?
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尽管氢燃料电池汽车(FCEVs)与电池电动汽车(BEVs)同期进入市场,但其销量却微乎其微。宝马计划于2028年推出首款FCEV,看好其在交通运输领域的潜力。FCEV被视为电动汽车的一种,提供快速加氢和零排放的优点,但基础设施建设滞后是其普及的主要障碍。相较于BEV充电桩,氢气加气站的建设成本高昂且数量稀少,尤其在欧洲部分国家更是缺乏。行业人士认为,FCEVs可与BEVs互补,共同构建更具成本效益的交通基础设施。同时,FCEV在应对寒冷天气、长途运输和减少电池原材料依赖方面具有优势。商业车队被视为推动FCEV发展的关键,如英国的HyHAUL项目和巴黎的FCEV出租车队。然而,要实现消费者普及,需要大规模的基础设施建设,并解决“鸡生蛋还是蛋生鸡”的难题。宝马寄希望于2028年基础设施的改善,并期待FCEV价格能与BEV持平。

💧 氢燃料电池汽车(FCEVs)作为电动汽车的一种,具有快速加氢(3-4分钟)和零排放的优点,并且可以利用BEVs的许多现有组件,如电动机,但其市场普及率远低于BEVs,2024年全球销量仅为12,866辆,远不及BEVs的1080万辆。

🚧 氢燃料电池汽车面临的主要挑战是基础设施的缺乏,氢气加气站的建设成本高昂(150万至400万美元),且数量稀少,许多国家甚至没有相关站点,这与BEV充电桩的广泛普及形成鲜明对比,导致了“鸡生蛋还是蛋生鸡”的困境。

⚖️ FCEVs被视为BEVs的补充而非替代,投资于两种基础设施可以降低总体成本。例如,在德国,90% BEVs和10% FCEVs的组合比100% BEVs基础设施的投资成本低400亿美元。此外,FCEVs在减少电池原材料稀缺性、应对寒冷天气和长途运输方面具有优势。

🚚 商业车队被认为是推动FCEV发展的关键。英国的HyHAUL项目旨在通过建立氢燃料加气站来支持长途商业运输,仅需30辆氢燃料电池卡车即可启动项目。巴黎的FCEV出租车队也显示了其在特定商业应用中的可行性,但该模式能否扩展到消费者市场仍待观察。

🚀 宝马计划于2028年推出其首款量产FCEV,并寄希望于届时氢能源基础设施能够显著改善,使其成为消费者可行的选择。宝马的目标是让FCEV的价格与BEV相当,这需要通过规模化生产来实现成本的降低,并取决于市场对FCEV的需求能否转化为实际销量。

Hydrogen fuel cell cars (FCEVs) have been on the market for a similar duration to the current wave of battery EVs (BEVs). But they have sold a tiny fraction in comparison. In 2024, 12,866 FCEVs were registered globally, versus 10.8 million BEVs. Still, some manufacturers have hopes that hydrogen has a role to play in transport.

One of these is BMW, which recently announced it would be bringing its first FCEV into series production in 2028. Fortune caught up with BMW Group’s General Project Manager Hydrogen Technology and Vehicle Projects, Jürgen Guldner, at a recent summit promoting FCEVs, among other hydrogen evangelists.

Toyota has been the leading seller of FCEVs with the Mirai launched in 2014, but it isn’t the only player. Hyundai has been selling its Nexo since 2018, and Honda, after offering various cars under the Clarity name from 2008 to 2021, brought its CR-V e:FCEV plug-in hybrid hydrogen car to market in 2024. BMW has been more cautious. The company has been trialling FCEVs with a pilot run of vehicles based on X5 since 2023. The iX5 Hydrogen is already a credible vehicle, with smooth driving and a familiar X5 interior. However, this won’t necessarily be the vehicle that BMW will launch in 2028.

“The good news is a hydrogen vehicle is an electric vehicle,” says Guldner. “It’s just a different way of storing the energy versus a battery, which also means that we can reuse a lot of the components like the electric motors in the car from our BEVs. It also has a unique value proposition. It’s the best of both worlds, with all the benefits of electric driving—acceleration, silent driving, zero emission—but you can refuel in 3 to 4 minutes and you’re 100% full and ready to go again.”

The problem of hydrogen infrastructure

This has always seemed like a compelling argument for hydrogen on paper, but the reality has been that hydrogen refueling hasn’t proliferated like BEV charging stations. In fact, it has gone backwards in many countries. In the UK, in 2019 there were as many as 15 hydrogen fuel stations, whereas today in 2025 only four were listed, with two potentially not in service. By contrast, according to Zap-Map, there were 39,733 public charging locations in the UK in May 2025, with 80,998 devices and 115,241 connectors. Germany is better served for hydrogen refueling, but some European countries have no stations at all, such as Spain, Portugal and Italy.

Some hydrogen proponents argue that this is a strategic mistake if your goal is to decarbonize road transport.

“FCEVs are complementary to battery electric vehicles and heading towards one common direction,” says David Wong, head of technology and innovation at the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders. “If you invest in both charging infrastructure and the fuel cell hydrogen refilling infrastructure, the overall cost is lower. We’ve done modelling where they use Germany as an example. It shows that if we have a motor park penetration of 90% BEVs and 10% FCEVs, the overall cost of investing in infrastructure is $40 billion lower than the scenario where 100% of infrastructure is public charge points.”

There is also concern about resource usage when manufacturing BEVs. Guldner points out batteries requires a lot of raw materials, which could lead to scarcity.

“Having a second technology, not putting all eggs in one basket, provides resilience,” he explains. “BMW having two technologies is better than one. We got a lot of feedback from people saying BEVs don’t work for them. We’re thinking about those people who can’t or don’t want to use battery electric cars because maybe they don’t have electric charging at home, or are on the road a lot and don’t want to depend on charging stops, even if you can get them down to maybe 20 minutes. We have issues like towing and cold weather conditions. In the fuel cell you can use excess heat, so you don’t lose any range.”

This still leaves the problem with how you ramp up the infrastructure to support hydrogen. A commercial DC charger might be $50,000, a home charger can cost $1,000, or you can even use a very slow $200 mains plug cable.

But the price for a hydrogen station is much greater—between $1.5 and $2 million, although some estimate as much as $4 million. The solution, at least in the UK, is to target the long-haul commercial sector first and build out from that. HyHAUL is a project aiming to achieve that.

“The biggest challenge with hydrogen is the fact that it works very well at large scale, but not so good at small scale,” says Chris Jackson, CEO and founder of Protium Green Solutions, which co-founded HyHAUL. “One single hydrogen fueling station requires hundreds of passenger cars to make the economics work, but only a very small number of trucks. We are initially developing three major refueling stations and all we need to get the project off the ground is 30 fuel cell trucks. The first stage will be along the M4 corridor. We’ll be covering from Wales all the way into the M25 around London. Over time, we plan to expand across other networks, going up the M5 and M6.”

For consumer adoption of FCEVs, however, it would be necessary to cover the UK completely within half an hour driving distance, which would require about 1,300 stations. One of the reasons why Tesla was able to kickstart the BEV revolution so effectively was its two-pronged approach of building the supportive charging infrastructure to go with its cars.

Automakers developing FCEVs have traditionally left this to third parties, leading to a chicken-and-egg situation where car adoption awaited infrastructure, and vice versa. This has meant that as BEVs have reached a tipping point in many markets, including the UK, EU and China, while FCEVs wait in the wings.

Can fuel cells prevail?

This hasn’t prevented Toyota from persevering with FCEVs. “Our role is to provide customers with choice,” says Jon Hunt, senior manager, Hydrogen Transformation, Toyota GB. “We can’t have people dismissing technologies that are there to enable us all to learn and develop.”

Commercial vehicles could help FCEVs reach that tipping point. In Paris, around 1,000 FCEV taxis have been operated by Hype since 2015, the majority of which are Toyota Mirais. For this reason, Paris has six hydrogen fuel stops with three more being built. This could lay the groundwork for consumers to adopt FCEVs in the city. However, outside Paris there is no supportive infrastructure yet, preventing long journeys beyond the urban limits. Hype has also recently said it is pivoting away from FCEVs to BEVs.

Even with full launch still three years away, BMW is placing a heavy bet on infrastructure having improved sufficiently for hydrogen to be a viable choice for consumers by 2028.

Guldner notes BMW hasn’t yet decided which countries it will bring those vehicles to market, adding that it will depend on the infrastructure.

“Right now, it’s simply not here in the UK. But hopefully in the next few years, development will pick up,” he says.

The exact model that will go into production in 2028 also hasn’t been announced. And while a price hasn’t been unveiled either, BMW is hoping for parity with BEVs, Guldner says, pointing to previous dramatic cost reductions in other technologies like batteries and solar cells.

For these cost reductions to materialize, though, there has to be enough demand for FCEVs to deliver sufficient scale.

“I am always surprised by surveys in newspapers where so many people say they would prefer a hydrogen vehicle over battery power,” he says. “There seems to be demand there.”

The question will be whether these survey responses translate into vehicle sales. In 2028, when BMW launches its production FCEV, we could find out.

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氢燃料电池汽车 FCEV BEV 电动汽车 基础设施建设 BMW
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