Fortune | FORTUNE 13小时前
Meme-stock roar fades on Wall Street as retail finds new thrills
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近期市场出现了一系列由散户驱动的投机性上涨,如Opendoor、Krispy Kreme和GoPro等股票的显著波动,Reddit等论坛再次活跃。然而,与以往不同的是,这些波动并未引发过度担忧,反而被视为市场常态。文章指出,零售投机已不再是特殊时期或疫情扭曲的信号,而是当前经济周期中一个固定的组成部分。短线期权交易、多样化的交易平台以及“逢低买入”的投资理念,都体现了新一代投资者的市场参与方式。即使在没有刺激政策或低利率的背景下,这种日常投机也已融入现代市场的架构之中,反映出散户投资者在华尔街的日益增强的影响力。

📈 零售投机活动已常态化,不再是特殊事件的信号。近期如Opendoor、Krispy Kreme等股票的短期大幅上涨,以及Reddit等社交媒体的活跃,表明散户投资者已将投机行为融入日常交易,市场对此反应趋于平淡,显示出一种“常态化”的趋势。

💡 新一代投资者投资工具和心态发生转变。文章引用专家观点指出,当前投资者更倾向于使用短线期权,交易平台涵盖从体育博彩到复杂股票交易的多种类型,并且普遍持有“逢低买入”的理念,这与过去一代的“购房”观念形成对比,显示出其对市场结构和工具的熟练掌握。

🚀 机构和市场参与者已适应散户的交易模式。市场制造者和机构已能有效对冲风险并对散户驱动的期权交易进行定价,他们已经调整了策略以应对这种现象。这使得散户的投机行为虽然存在,但对整体市场的颠覆性影响相对减弱。

🌐 加密货币持续融入主流金融市场。与散户投机并存的是,加密货币正稳步进入主流,例如大型金融机构参与的区块链项目以及加密基金持续的大规模资金流入,这表明数字资产的接受度和市场认可度正在不断提高。

This week proved the point. Opendoor surged 43% in a single day. Krispy Kreme rallied 39% in a matter of hours. GoPro briefly spiked 73%. Reddit message boards lit up once again with rocket emojis and call-option bravado.

Yet it wasn’t the magnitude of the surges that mattered — but the indifference they met. Customary warnings about speculative excess fell on deaf ears. What once felt seismic now feels like a normal part of daily trading — another episode in a US financial system where bursts of retail speculation are routine, expected, and largely unremarkable.

By the end of the week, with the quick rallies faded, the broader market ended with modest moves after a record-setting run. Meanwhile, crypto — once cast as the financial resistance — continued its steady march into the mainstream. A new blockchain-based project involving the likes of Bank of New York Mellon Corp. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. was announced. Crypto funds posted their biggest four-week cumulative inflow ever. Michael Saylor’s Strategy clinched another $2.8 billion in capital markets to fund additional Bitcoin buying.

Taken together, the week offered a broader lesson: retail-driven speculative behavior no longer signals generational angst or post-pandemic distortion. It has instead become a settled feature of the current cycle. Short-dated options are part of the retail toolkit, trading platforms span everything from sports betting to complex stock bets, and manic episodes rarely require justification to take hold.

Peter Atwater, an adjunct professor at the College of William & Mary who studies retail investors, said the current wave of activity reflects a shift in both market sentiment and investment toolkit. Meme stocks trading, he says, has lost its sense of novelty — and that’s precisely the point. “We’ve normalized memeing,” he said. “There’s a yawn to it now.”

In Atwater’s view, the most aggressive traders have already moved on to riskier frontiers – digital tokens, leveraged ETFs, prediction markets — while meme stocks have become more of a cultural rerun. “It’s like 30-year-olds dancing to music 20-year-olds used to party to,” he said.

That meme stocks can rip without stimulus checks, lockdowns or zero rates isn’t especially surprising anymore. It is, in its own way, a marker of the moment: everyday speculation, embedded in the architecture of modern markets. Contracts that expire within 24 hours made up a record 62% of the S&P 500’s total options so far this quarter, according to data compiled by Cboe Global Markets Inc., with more than half of the activity being driven by retail trading.

“This generation is far savvier about options and market structure,” said Amy Wu Silverman, head of derivatives strategy at RBC Capital Markets. “While my generation was perhaps taught to ‘buy a house’ this one knows to ‘buy the dip.’”

It’s not happening in a vacuum. This week earnings season offered few surprises. Tariff deadlines slipped again. Noise from the White House blurred into the investment backdrop. The S&P 500 climbed 1.5% on the week and closed at a record high.

And in the end, a group of volatile stocks became yet another playground where regular investors aimed to quickly turn a profit, often by cornering short sellers or leveraging options. Opendoor Technologies Inc., capped a six-day winning streak with a 43% pop on Monday. The following days saw stocks with high short interest such as Kohl’s Corp., GoPro Inc., Krispy Kreme Inc. and Beyond Meat Inc. surge intraday then pare into the close. 

Competition for gambling dollars is more brisk than it used to be. Since the post-Liberation Day selloff, a Goldman Sachs basket of the most shorted stocks has jumped more than 60%. In credit, CCCs, the riskiest tier of the junk bond universe, are on track to rack up a seventh week of gains. Crypto funds took in $12.2 billion in the past four weeks, their biggest cumulative inflow for such period, according to Bank of America Corp. citing EPFR Global data. US leveraged-loan market just had one of its busiest weeks ever with junk-rated companies rushing to reprice their borrowings multiple times.

And while the latest frenzy was reminiscent of 2021’s pandemic-era burst, there were a few key differences. This week’s action was fleeting, lasting one or two trading days before petering out. Concerted campaigns in the options market played a smaller role. More than half of the top 100 stocks in the S&P 500 index were trading with inverted one-month call skew in 2021, a sign of bullish intent, according to Cboe. This week it got only as high as 21% for the group.

“The market makers and institutions have really adjusted to this phenomenon,” said Garrett DeSimone, head quant at OptionMetrics. They’re “able to hedge their risk and they know how to price these options in across these scenarios,” he said.

If it signaled anything, enthusiasm for memes is more evidence that an ever-more-empowered retail cadre is a fact of Wall Street life that isn’t going anywhere, at least not soon.  

“I don’t think it’s the beginning of a new trend, but it is very interesting to watch because it speaks that the retail investor really wants to be involved in this market,” said Jay Woods, chief global strategist at Freedom Capital Markets. “This is bullish. This is not bearish. This is not significant of a top.”

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零售投机 市场常态化 期权交易 加密货币 投资者行为
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