科技巨头们正陷入一场激烈的AI军备竞赛，在数据中心、GPU、网络设备和人才方面投入巨资，这既带来了增长的希望，也伴随着巨大的风险。Google、Meta和OpenAI等公司都在大幅增加资本支出，以支持AI技术的快速发展。Google宣布将其2025年资本支出提高100亿美元至850亿美元，主要用于芯片、数据中心和网络等不可逆转的投资。虽然AI带来了处理能力翻倍和搜索、云业务的强劲增长，但高投入能否带来持续的回报，以及AI热潮退却后如何处理庞大的基础设施成本，仍是投资者关注的焦点。这场“愿景支出”和“AI疯狂列车”的背后，是巨大的赌注。

📈 **AI军备竞赛与资本支出激增**：以Google、Meta和OpenAI为代表的科技巨头正通过增加数据中心、GPU、网络设备和人才的投入，积极参与AI领域的军备竞赛。Google宣布将2025年的资本支出提高至850亿美元，其中大部分用于芯片、数据中心和网络等长期性投资，显示出其对AI发展的坚定投入。

🎢 **高投入的潜在风险与回报**：这种激进的资本支出模式虽然带来了AI处理能力的显著提升（如Google月度代币处理量翻倍）以及搜索和云业务的强劲增长，但同时也伴随着巨大的风险。分析师担忧，如果AI的增长前景未能达到预期，这些大规模、不可逆的投资将成为沉重的负担，如同试图用昂贵的口香糖去填补AI带来的巨大资金缺口。

🤔 **“愿景支出”下的不确定性**：科技巨头的资本支出被一些分析师称为“愿景支出”，尤其是像Google这样过往以审慎著称的公司，其此次的大手笔投入更显出其对AI未来的强烈预期。然而，市场对此的反应相对谨慎，Google股价在宣布大幅增加资本支出后仅小幅上涨，表明投资者在看到切实的投资回报前，仍持观望态度，对高投入能否持续支撑现有业务回报率表示疑虑。

This post originally appeared in the BI Tech Memo newsletter.Sign up for the weekly BI Tech Memo newsletter here.

There's a fear in investing when a sector swells rapidly. Booming stock prices and aggressive spending feel great, until things inevitably cool off. Then comes the reckoning: Who overdid it in irreversible ways?

Big Tech is in an AI arms race, each company trying to outspend the others on data centers, GPUs, networking gear, and talent. Engineers can be let go. But the infrastructure? That's permanent. If the AGI dream fades, you're stuck with massive, costly assets.

So when Google announced it would hike capex by $10 billion to $85 billion in 2025 eyebrows went up. Most of it is for things you can't walk back: chips, data centers, and networking.

Google is "jumping aboard the AI crazy train," Bernstein analyst Mark Shmulik wrote, referencing a song by the late bat biter Ozzy Osbourne.

Meta's Mark Zuckerberg brags about Manhattan-sized data centers. And Elon Musk keeps hoarding GPUs. While Sam Altman is building mega-data centers with partners. JPMorgan dubbed this "vibe spending," warning OpenAI might burn $46 billion in four years.

It's no shock when Elon, Zuck, and Sam flex on capex. But Google? That's surprising. "Google doesn't do this," Shmulik said. The company has been viewed as measured in recent years, prioritizing investment intensity with care. Not anymore.

Now investors want to know: Will these swelling bets pay off?

There are promising signs. Since May, Google's monthly token processing (the currency of generative AI) has doubled from 480 trillion to nearly a quadrillion. Search grew 12% in Q2, beating forecasts. Cloud sales surged 32%. CEO Sundar Pichai said Google is ramping up capex to support all this growth.

But it's still a huge gamble. "Does the current return on invested capital seen in both Search and Cloud hold up at higher [capex] intensity levels," Shmulik asked, "or is the spend a very expensive piece of gum trying to plug an AI-sized hole?" He leans optimistic.

Still, Google shares rose just 1% after these results. Not exactly a resounding endorsement.

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