Fortune | FORTUNE 17小时前
Volkswagen seeks audience with Trump, dangling more than $10 billion in U.S. investments in exchange for tariff exemptions
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文章探讨了大众汽车(Volkswagen)为抵消美国高额汽车关税而提出的投资换取关税减免的提议。大众汽车希望通过在美投资,将其投资额抵扣应缴的关税,以此降低运营成本。然而,此举引发了对现有国际贸易规则的担忧,因为这种双边特殊协议可能破坏全球贸易体系的稳定性和可预测性。文章还指出,美国政府利用国家安全理由来调整关税,以及世界贸易组织(WTO)争端解决机制的失效,都为这种特殊交易提供了空间。这种做法可能为其他企业效仿,导致贸易规则的混乱和长期经济损失。

💡 大众汽车提议以在美投资抵扣关税:大众汽车希望通过在美进行投资,并以此作为理由,要求将投资金额抵扣其在美国市场应缴纳的巨额汽车关税,以此来减轻因美国贸易政策带来的财务压力。大众汽车的CEO明确表示,他们愿意提供大规模投资,以换取与美国政府达成一项具体的、公司层面的协议,从而降低其在美国的运营成本。

🇺🇸 美国政府利用国家安全理由调整关税政策:文章指出,美国政府通过将进口外国制造的乘用车定性为对国家安全的“可证明风险”,绕过了国会常规的贸易政策制定权,从而获得了对关税税率的控制。此举旨在推动美国国内制造业的复苏,应对因就业外包而可能带来的潜在军事威胁,但这种做法也为双边特殊协议的出现埋下了伏笔。

⚖️ 双边协议挑战全球贸易规则与WTO机制:大众汽车的提议以及潜在的政府协议,与世界贸易组织(WTO)成员国遵循的、普遍适用的贸易规则相悖。这种“特殊豁免”或“特殊待遇”的做法,一旦被其他企业效仿,可能导致贸易规则的混乱和不可预测性,并可能对全球经济的长期繁荣产生负面影响。此外,WTO争端解决机制的失效,也使得挑战此类协议变得更加困难。

📉 关税政策导致大众汽车下调业绩预期:文章披露,美国27.5%的汽车及零部件关税,是导致大众汽车大幅下调其2025年业绩预期的主要原因。高额关税预计将直接吞噬其运营利润率,如果关税维持不变,可能导致其利润率下降两个百分点。即使考虑了缓解措施,乐观情况下也难以达到先前设定的利润目标,显示了贸易政策对企业运营的直接且深远的影响。

Under the proposal, for every dollar that Volkswagen invests, it would like to receive in return an equal amount offset against its tariff bill. The VW boss is only waiting on the European Commission to reach a deal on behalf of the entire EU so he then knows what precise rates he can expect on goods exported to the U.S. market.

“Every company has got a special situation in the U.S., and therefor I think it should be possible to add a specific deal on company level,” Blume said on Friday, after revealing his company just paid $1.4 billion to the U.S. customs authorities. “We can offer huge investments.”

Volkswagen already operates a U.S. assembly plant in Chattanooga, Tennessee, where it builds the Atlas SUV and ID.4 electric crossover. It is currently investing $2 billion in a new site in Blythewood, South Carolina, where it plans a new family of electrified vehicles under the resurrected Scout brand first launched by defunct manufacturer International Harvester. VW could not confirm whether this figure was included in the $10 billion.

Typically, trade policy falls under the responsibility of Congress. But the White House capitalized on a legal loophole to seize control over tariff rates by declaring the import of foreign-built passenger cars to pose a demonstrable risk to national security. His administration argues the U.S. must rebuild a domestic manufacturing base gutted by the offshoring of jobs abroad that can ward off potential military threats 

Bilateral deals could prove costly in the long run

A special quid-pro-quo exemption or carve-out negotiated bilaterally between a corporation and a federal government is not typical under the rules governing World Trade Organization members like the United States.

Thanks to the two previous U.S. administrations, the WTO’s ability to settle and enforce trade disputes has been neutralized when its highest court—known as the Appellate Body—was effectively dismantled. At the end of 2019, Trump blocked appointments needed to achieve a quorum in a tactic that was later adopted by President Biden as well.

Irrespective of the legal issue, the idea that corporations could sidestep their national governments by lining up, one after the other, to each strike their own special deal with the White House has experts concerned that the rules of trade could end up becoming permanently chaotic.

“This is a new development that is anything but positive, since it introduces unpredictability. In the long run it could prove very expensive when it comes to overall prosperity,” says Julian Hinz, a director of the Trade Research Center at Germany’s Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).

The White House could not be reached immediately by Fortune for comment.

Guidance cut

“The great thing about the rules-based system is that they were valid for everyone—you didn’t have to negotiate with every conceivable economic actor,” the global trade economist told Fortune. “It might offer a temporary advantage over your competitors, but it’s extremely myopic.” 

Earlier on Friday the company behind VW, Audi, and Porsche slashed its 2025 guidance across the board, reducing expectations for everything from its annual sales revenue and it operating margin through to even how much cash it has at year-end. 

And the chief culprit, according to Volkswagen Group, is the 27.5% duty levied by the president on all vehicles and car parts entering the United States. The gross sum from tariffs is estimated to wipe a full two percentage points off its operating margin should they remain at current levels.

Once planned mitigation efforts are factored in this would result in a 4% operating profit margin. In a more optimistic scenario based on tariffs of just 10%, it expects that number to hit 5%. Previously it had guided for a range of 5.5% to 6.5% versus 5.9% in 2024.

Its tariff bill to the U.S. Customs and Border Patrol ballooned from €100 million ($117 million) in the first three months of this year to €1.2 billion in the second quarter alone. That means the $1.4 billion in equivalent U.S. currency it paid exceeds the $1.1 billion that Detroit rival General Motors paid during the past three months.

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大众汽车 美国关税 贸易政策 WTO 投资抵税
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