Fortune | FORTUNE 17小时前
Bitcoin slides as Fed rate cut hopes diminish
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周五,比特币价格随大盘风险资产一同下跌,美国降息预期减弱打击了投资者信心。比特币一度跌至6月11日以来新低,但随后略有回升。以太坊表现平稳,XRP小幅下跌。此前,比特币因美国监管环境乐观及资金流入强劲而创下历史新高。分析师认为,尽管短期动能有所放缓,但整体上升趋势依然完好,此次下跌可视为对前期高点的健康回调。市场关注点在于比特币能否维持在关键价位之上,以判断中期趋势是否改变。同时,衍生品市场也显示出谨慎情绪,有投资者大手笔买入看跌期权。

💰 **比特币价格下跌,受宏观经济因素影响**:比特币价格在周五随同其他风险资产出现下跌,主要原因是美国降息的预期减弱,这削弱了投资者的风险偏好。比特币一度跌至6月11日以来的最低点,显示出市场情绪的转变。

📈 **短期回调,长期趋势仍被看好**:尽管近期出现下跌,但分析师普遍认为比特币的整体上升趋势仍然完好。此次下跌被视为一种“健康且必要的修正”,是前期快速上涨后的正常调整,市场正在消化前期的高位。

📊 **关键价位决定中期趋势**:分析师指出,只要比特币价格能够维持在3.4万亿美元的总市值之上,就无需担忧中期趋势的改变。目前,比特币面临着月度趋势线阻力,该阻力位在12.5万美元附近,限制了其近期的上涨空间。

⚖️ **衍生品市场显现谨慎信号**:在衍生品市场,有投资者表现出明显的看跌情绪。例如,有巨鲸花费约500万美元购买了将在8月8日到期的、行使价为11万美元的比特币看跌期权,这表明市场中存在对未来价格下跌的担忧。

Bitcoin declined alongside broader risk assets Friday as receding hopes for U.S. interest rate cuts dented investor appetite. 

The largest cryptocurrency dropped to a low of $114,762, the lowest since July 11, before slightly paring those losses. Ether, the second-largest digital token, traded broadly flat and XRP was down around 3% as of 7:10 a.m. in New York. 

Bitcoin had reached an all-time high of $123,205 earlier in the month, continuing a steady advance driven by optimism on the US regulatory environment and strong inflows into crypto investment products. 

“The broader uptrend remains intact, but momentum has cooled and traders are cautious,” said Rachael Lucas, a crypto analyst at BTC Markets.

Stronger-than-expected US jobs data on Thursday dimmed Fed cut hopes, ending a seven-day Asian stock rally and pressuring crypto.

The crypto market’s decline is “a healthy and necessary correction” from previous highs, according to Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro. The total value of all cryptocurrencies in circulation briefly topped $4 trillion in July, according to CoinGecko data.

Even a decline to the $3.4 trillion mark would be viewed as profit-taking, Kuptsikevich said in a note on Friday. “As long as the market remains above this level, there is no point in talking about a change in the medium-term trend,” he added.

Bearish sentiment was also evident in the derivatives market where an unidentified speculator paid about $5 million in premium on the Deribit exchange to buy Bitcoin put options expiring on Aug. 8 at the strike price of $110,000, according to prime broker FalconX, which facilitated the trade.

“We expect to see further consolidation while Bitcoin remains below monthly trendline resistance, currently at around $125,000, which capped Bitcoin’s advance last week,” said Tony Sycamore an analyst at IG Australia.

On the new Fortune Crypto Playbook vodcast, Fortune

’s senior crypto experts decode the biggest forces shaping crypto today.

Watch or listen now

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比特币 加密货币 美联储 降息 市场分析
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