China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA) now expects the country to add 270 GW AC to 300 GW AC of solar installations in 2025, up from its earlier projection. Surging H1 installations in the world’s largest solar market have also prompted it to revise global forecasts to 570 GW AC to 630 GW AC.
The association had earlier forecasted China’s 2025 solar installations to fall by 8% to 22%, down to 215 GW AC to 255 GW AC. This would have been the first annual decline in 6 years for the world’s largest solar market – contributing to global additions of 531 GW AC to 583 GW AC (see China’s Solar PV Market To Slow Down To Around 255 GW In 2025).
CPIA attributed its previous forecast to the country moving towards a market-oriented pricing system that came into force on June 1, 2025. However, this same factor has become the reason for the CPIA to raise its annual forecast to even exceed the 277 GW it installed in 2024, as the rush to cash in on the feed-in-tariff (FIT) regime pushed H1 numbers to around 200 GW (see China Solar Installations: From 100 MW In 2009 To 1 TW In 2025).
Speaking at the association’s H1 2025 conference, CPIA’s Bohua Wang also attributed the increased forecast to strong momentum across the country. Provincial governments steam ahead with installations, since existing projects follow the old policies, and actual targets for most provinces are higher than the 2024 indicative targets. During H1, 17 provinces added at least 1 GW capacity, while large-scale solar-wind hybrid projects progress steadily, and grid connections remain solid.
Additionally, the green power consumption mandate for the 5 key industries of aluminum, steel, cement, petrochemicals, and chemicals will also create demand, not to mention energy-hungry data centers. By 2030, China targets 253 GW of solar capacity for desertification control, which will also boost the market despite the policy changes (see China Solar PV News Snippets: LONGi Commissions 1st Hi ROOF S C&I Project & More).
Nevertheless, CPIA’s upward revision is still conservative when compared to China’s State Grid Energy Research Institute’s 380 GW AC forecast, representing a year-on-year (YoY) increase of 35.5% attributed to growing demand from data centers and for cooling as a key determinant.
Speaking at the recent TaiyangNews Global Solar Market Developments 2025 Webinar, Rystad Energy Vice President Marius Bakke estimated new solar installations this year to total 655 GW DC. At the same event, AECEA Director Frank Haugwitz said he expects China to install up to 350 GW AC capacity (see Expect Record Solar Growth In 2025, But Near-Term Risks Loom).
Haugwitz lowered the projections post the webinar to 300 GW AC, announcing it on his LinkedIn account, while stating that the State Grid has lowered its estimate to 260 GW AC.
Meanwhile, the country’s H1 2025 new solar installations exceeded 212 GW, with the addition of 14.36 GW in the month of June (see China’s June 2025 Solar PV Additions Fall To 14.36 GW).
Prices
China's module prices rebounded briefly in early April amid the 4.30 and 5.31 installation rush this year, but plunged afterward. From April onward, prices dropped across all segments for over 10 straight weeks, notes the association, falling below early-year levels and hitting historic lows by early July. It does say that prices began recovering after July 10, 2025.
