New Yorker 07月24日 06:18
We’re Living in an Age of Floods
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随着全球气温上升,极端降水事件日益频繁,导致洪水灾害的频率和强度都在增加。文章指出,所谓的“百年一遇”洪水统计已不再准确,许多房产位于高风险洪水区却未被充分认知。特别是山洪暴发,其速度快、破坏力强,留给人们的反应时间极为有限。现有防洪体系和风险认知存在滞后,无法有效应对日益严峻的洪水挑战,亟需更新和改进以适应新的气候现实。

🌡️ 气候变化导致极端降水增加,使得危险洪水发生的频率更高。全球气温上升与更频繁的极端降水事件密切相关,这意味着我们正面临比以往更严重的洪水威胁。

🌊 “百年一遇”洪水统计已过时且具误导性。该统计仅衡量特定区域在特定年份发生特定幅度洪水的可能性,而非洪水发生的实际频率。研究表明,过去被视为“百年一遇”的洪水正变得越来越频繁。

🏞️ 山洪比海滨洪水更具危险性且难以应对。与缓慢演变的沿海洪水不同,河流洪水移动迅速,能迅速改变地貌,留给人们的反应时间极短,其破坏力堪比龙卷风或野火。

🏠 多数高风险洪水区的房产未被充分识别和认知。尽管人们为避开沿海风暴潮而迁往内陆,但许多山地和丘陵地区也面临高洪水风险。FEMA的洪水区划图数据老旧,导致大量房产未被列入高风险区,业主对潜在威胁缺乏认识。

⚠️ 现有防洪体系和风险认知未能跟上气候变化的速度。我们尚未建立起能够有效应对当前和未来洪水挑战的系统,需要重新评估和更新我们的准备和应对策略。

Climate change has made the most dangerous floods more frequent, and we are simply not prepared to handle what’s to come, John Seabrook reports. Plus:

On July 4th, the floodwaters of the Guadalupe were like a tornado or a wildfire—a volatile, rapidly changing hazard.Photograph from ABC affiliate KSAT / Reuters

Erin Neil
Newsletter editor

At the beginning of the month, the Guadalupe River overflowed, killing more than a hundred people in the Texas Hill Country. Shortly after, floods ripped through North Carolina, parts of the Midwest, New Mexico, and Washington, D.C. And, last Monday night, as rain crashed down on New York and New Jersey, phones lit up, warning residents of imminent flooding. Videos of water rushing into a subway station went viral, and, by Tuesday morning, two people in New Jersey were confirmed dead after their car was swept away by the storm surge.

As temperatures around the world continue to rise, so have bursts of extreme precipitation. We’re now seeing more floods that resemble the volatility of a tornado or a wildfire—events that leave only “a narrow window within which to act before the deadly force of the raging river arrived at your door,” John Seabrook, a staff writer, reports in a piece from this week’s issue. Seabrook argues that we’re living through a distinct age of floods—and that we don’t yet have systems in place that are equipped for what’s to come. Here are a few key things that we all should know.

The idea of a “hundred year” flood is a misleading statistic. The phrase makes it sound as if “a bad flood will occur only once every hundred years,” Seabrook writes. But what the “hundred-year floodplain” actually measures is how likely a flood of a certain magnitude is to occur in a certain area. Someone living in this zone would have a one-per-cent chance of being flooded any given year. And a recent study commissioned by First Street Foundation, a private risk-assessment firm, found that such massive floods, previously considered hundred-year events, are, on average, becoming more and more frequent.

A storm surge is not the deadliest kind of flood. We’re familiar with the footage that shows people in low-lying coastal towns and cities, inundated by rain, wading through streets submerged in water. But those floods often unfold more slowly, allowing people to get to safety on higher ground. A flooded river, by contrast, moves rapidly and “reshapes the entire landscape.”

Millions of homeowners are living on property that is at high risk of flooding, but they don’t truly understand the risks. In recent years, people have moved away from coastal areas to places out of the way of storm-surge flooding, hurricanes, and rising sea levels. But the kind of flooding that occurred in Texas’s Kerr County often takes place in the hilly and mountainous areas that are attracting new residents. “They have merely traded a devil they know for one they don’t,” Seabrook points out. FEMA uses floodplain maps to designate a Special Flood Hazard Area, or S.F.H.A., but the data used to identify these places is based on readings from the middle of the twentieth century or earlier. The First Street study found that, of the more than seventeen million properties that are at risk of flooding, only five million are in a FEMA-designated flood-hazard zone—meaning that many homeowners and buyers are unaware of the risks to their property.

Read more about how we should cope with floods »


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气候变化 洪水风险 极端天气 防洪准备 风险认知
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