China experienced a 150% year-on-year (YoY) surge in installations from January 2025 to May 2025, largely fueled by the June 1 transition to fully market-based electricity tariffs. While monthly installation volumes have since declined, Haugwitz remains optimistic, projecting up to 20% annual growth in PV installations for 2025. He anticipates the number to reach between 330 GW and 350 GW, while the State Grid Energy Research Institute expects 380 GW (see China Forecasts 380 GW New Solar PV Installations In 2025).
In an update on his LinkedIn account following the TaiyangNews webinar, Haugwitz said that China’s State Grid has revised its annual solar capacity addition forecast downward to 260 GW AC – equivalent to less than 8 GW AC of monthly new installations for the remainder of the year. However, he remains confident that China could still achieve at least 300 GW AC, translating to around 10% annual growth.
The mandated 80% green power requirement for data centers is expected to underpin strong solar demand. Heavy industries will also need to meet the updated renewable purchase obligation (RPO) standards, which were recently updated by the government.
During the 5M 2025 period, China tendered close to 100 GW of solar capacity, representing a 36% annual drop, but most of this capacity was tendered in January.
As China has already met and exceeded its 1.2 TW solar and wind capacity target of 2030, Haugwitz expects the administration to release an updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) in November 2026, which should have revised targets for renewable energy. Nevertheless, he sees the country experiencing lower growth in the 1st year of the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030).
Panel Discussion
During a panel discussion with TaiyangNews Managing Director Michael Schmela, the panelists were unanimous in their view that the global solar and storage markets face ongoing price pressure due to overcapacity, especially in China, where short-term price upticks are unsustainable. Manufacturers are shifting toward innovation, like back-contact and perovskite cells, to stay competitive. AECEA Director Frank Haugwitz emphasized that R&D and innovation will be the key to survival for manufacturers in the near term.
Energy storage is becoming essential worldwide, driven by economics rather than mandates. However, regulatory clarity and market reforms are still needed, especially in Europe, stressed Sungrow Europe’s Head of Market Research, Frank Du, while pointing to persistent permitting issues. He said his company is aligned with the EU’s NZIA local manufacturing drive and wants to support customers in securing resilience auction points.
Rystad Energy Vice President Marius Bakke stated that despite short-term headwinds, the industry remains focused on long-term competitiveness, sustainability, and smarter deployment strategies across global regions. He views regional diversification as the way forward for solar manufacturing as countries like the US, Europe, and India boost local production to reduce reliance on China and strengthen energy security. Other nations will follow suit sooner or later.
TaiyangNews ran a live blog during the webinar, which can be accessed here.
On July 29, 2025, TaiyangNews will be back with a Virtual Conference on Distributed & Smart Solar 2025 to discuss the latest innovations, business models, and policies shaping the solar future across residential, commercial & industrial segments. Register for the event free.
