Fortune | FORTUNE 13小时前
Morgan Stanley’s blunt challenge to GM CEO Mary Barra: ‘How does GM expect to be profitable with EVs when players like Tesla apparently cannot?’
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通用汽车(GM)近期财报显示,第二季度净利润下滑,部分原因是受关税影响。分析师指出,通用汽车的困境不仅在于短期战术问题,更在于缺乏大胆的战略性变革。相较之下,特斯拉因在人工智能和机器人领域的投入,即使估值高昂,仍被认为前景光明。通用汽车CEO在财报会议上回应了关于电动汽车盈利能力及自动化合作的提问,但分析师认为其战略方向仍需调整,才能摆脱困境。

💰 通用汽车第二季度净利润下滑,部分归咎于特朗普政府关税政策造成的11亿美元损失,导致股价下跌8%。这与竞争对手Stellantis的亏损形成对比,凸显了行业面临的普遍压力。

📈 分析师认为通用汽车当前面临的并非仅是战术性或周期性问题,如激励支出、库存水平和关税成本抵消等。更深层的问题在于缺乏大胆的战略性改变,这使得其股票估值仅为明年预期收益的五倍,目标价48美元。

🚗 通用汽车进口的雪佛兰Equinox和凯迪拉克Optiq电动汽车在第二季度需求激增,这可能与经销商在25%汽车关税生效前囤积库存以及消费者在联邦电动汽车税收抵免(9月30日截止)到期前购买有关。

🤖 相较于通用汽车,特斯拉在人工智能、人形机器人和自动驾驶出租车领域的巨额投资,使其即使在高估值下仍被视为有吸引力。摩根士丹利分析师质疑通用汽车如何在电动汽车领域实现盈利,尤其是在特斯拉似乎也难以盈利的情况下。

💡 通用汽车CEO回应称,公司正在关注自动化领域的合作,但主要目标是提高汽车工厂的生产效率。分析师则强调,传统汽车制造商若想走出低迷,需要的是革命性的战略转型,而非仅仅是战术上的调整。

And Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas had a blunt statement for CEO Mary Barra, comparing her company unfavorably to Tesla in the Q&A section of the earnings call.

Shares in GM tumbled 8% after second-quarter adjusted net profit fell by a sixth due in part to a $1.1 billion hit from the Trump administration’s tariffs. It comes after fellow Detroit carmaker Stellantis, the parent of Jeep and Ram, pre-announced results for the first six months that revealed it swung to a €2.3 billion ($2.7 billion) loss from a net profit of €5.6 billion the prior year.

A major uncertainty clouding the outlook for GM’s North American profits moving forward remains the impact of import duties. As a result, on Tuesday, Piper Sandler warned clients it’s possible that GM could end up closer to the $8.25 in adjusted earnings per share for this year rather than the upper bound of $10 in its forecast range.

“But to us, these aren’t thesis-defining issues. More problematic, in our view, is that the call focused almost entirely on tactical or cyclical topics,” it wrote in a research note.

Only worth paying five times next year’s earnings for GM, bank argues

The bank gave as an example issues like incentive spending, inventory levels, and cost offsets with regard to tariffs to name just one example. GM imports the popular Chevrolet Equinox and Cadillac Optiq EVs from Mexico. Both saw a surge in Q2 demand potentially reflecting pull-forward effects as dealers stocked up on inventory before the 25% auto sector tariffs hit, and as customers bought EVs before the September 30 deadline for the end of the federal EV credit, discontinued by the Trump Administration.

“In our view, if GM and other traditional automakers want to emerge from their multi-year funk, they don’t need smart tactics,” Piper Sandler continued, “they need bold strategic changes.”

Otherwise the bank will continue to view GM share based on the same $48 price target that represents five times next year’s forecast earnings. 

Shares in GM first listed on the New York stock exchange back in November 2010. At the time, the company boasted what it called a “fortress balance sheet” free of legacy risks like pension and healthcare obligations for staff and retirees that helped plunge it into bankruptcy the year prior. 

Yet investors that bought in at the IPO price of $33 have not been rewarded relative to the broader equity market. The stock has averaged just a 2.6% annual compound return in the subsequent fifteen years versus an 11.8% with the S&P 500. 

‘How does GM expect to be profitable with EVs when players like Tesla apparently cannot?’

By comparison, Piper Sandler views Tesla, a $1 trillion-plus megacap company in the Magnificent 7 stock group, as being fairly valued at 140 times its estimated 2026 earnings. A major reason for that lofty multiple is Tesla’s efforts in the area of artificial intelligence and humanoid robotics.

In a research note published this weekend, Piper Sandler argued a further geographic expansion of the Austin area serviced by Tesla’s new AI-powered robotaxi fleet (generally estimated to still include only a dozen cars) was likely favorable enough to overshadow any negative revisions to forecast earnings. CEO Elon Musk’s company is due to report quarterly earnings after the close of markets on Wednesday. 

GM did not respond to a Fortune request for comment made outside normal working hours. 

But the carmaker’s CEO, Mary Barra, faced scrutiny from analysts during her Q2 conference call, with another Tesla bull asking where are its humanoid robots?

“Elon seems to be also exiting the auto industry, clearly pulling capital out of the business and doubling down on AI, autonomy and robotaxis,” Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas said during the Tuesday investor call. “So how does GM expect to be profitable with EVs when players like Tesla apparently cannot?”

Barra replied there were partnerships “we’re looking at” in the field of automation, but that when it comes to the subject, GM is mainly interested in improving efficiency at its automobile factories.

“Overall, we’re focused on what’s going to drive manufacturing optimization,” GM’s CEO answered. 

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