Fortune | FORTUNE 07月22日 23:08
A void of Medicaid infrastructure in Trump’s ‘One Big, Beautiful Bill’ may result in a customer service nightmare, warn Washington insiders
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美国总统的“美丽法案”在减税和关税方面引发经济学家的争论,但专家们更担心该计划的实际执行能力。文章指出,前政府官员对白宫提出的政策如何落地表示担忧,特别是针对Medicaid(医疗补助计划)的改革。新的工作要求和证明机制给政府行政部门带来了巨大的操作压力,尤其是在人员短缺和技术系统不完善的情况下,可能导致用户服务体验差,甚至使部分人失去医保。虽然有官员承诺提供技术支持,但执行层面的挑战依然严峻,亟需各州政府积极应对以降低潜在的负面影响。

新税法对Medicaid的改革要求新增工作时数证明,预计每年将有1850万受益人需要提交材料,并每六个月更新一次,这将给政府数据处理带来巨大压力,尤其是在当前许多机构人员短缺的情况下。

前政府官员对新政的执行细节表示担忧,认为在18个月内完成如此大规模的行政调整可能导致“客户服务噩梦”。现有机构可能面临人员不足、技术系统不完善等问题,导致用户难以获得帮助,服务效率低下。

政策执行可能面临技术难题,例如政府尝试开发的网站可能无法正常运行,导致大量电话涌入客服中心,而客服中心又因人手不足而无法及时响应,最终可能使民众在最需要帮助时无法获得支持。

尽管有官员承诺将提供技术支持以简化验证流程,但专家认为,如果缺乏清晰的中央政府指导和支持,一些州可能会在没有明确答案的情况下自行构建处理系统,增加了执行的不确定性。

此次改革可能导致部分民众失去医保,研究预测到2034年将有760万人因此失保。同时,专家也指出,政府应致力于最小化政策执行中的“破损”情况,并鼓励各州政府抓住机会进行系统现代化升级。

While economists argue over whether President Trump’s “One Big, Beautiful Bill” (OBBB) will add to national debt or manage to offset the “largest tax break in history” with tariffs, some experts are worried about the practicality of the plan.

More specifically, those who have worked on the ground to enact political promises in the past are questioning how the White House’s proposals will trickle into reality.

President Trump’s bill checks many boxes for his voters and for Republicans: new work requirements for Medicaid recipients, no taxes on tips, a higher maximum child tax credit threshold, and a raise of the limit for state and local tax deductions (SALT).

But one former Treasury staffer told Fortune that increasing the procedural legwork for an operation as big as Medicaid by the deadline of January 2027 may be a customer-service nightmare waiting to happen.

Julie Siegel is the former Deputy Federal COO at the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), and served as Deputy Chief of Staff at the Department of Treasury under Janet Yellen.

With the OMB, Siegel oversaw the U.S. Digital Service tasked with developing the technology to enact federal departments’ needs. She already has concerns about the tweaks to Medicaid, given her experience.

She told Fortune: “Medicaid is a federal and state partnership, they have to administer it and essentially build a machine to administer this new set of bureaucracy that the tax bill is putting on them.”

“And they can’t do it. There are 30% vacancies in some of these agencies, they’ve been stretched through COVID, they’re stretched because grants and other sources of revenue are being cut through DOGE [the Department of Government Efficiency] and they basically have 18 months to do this huge thing.”

18.5 million people will have to prove they meet the requirement every year

The task is to verify that individuals meet the new requirements: Namely that they have done 80 hours a week of month, or community engagement, or education—similar to policy already in place in some states.

The question for consumers is how to gather the evidence to prove they meet these benchmarks. In many cases employees, students or volunteers will not have a timesheet proving the hours they clocked in and out in a given week. The question for government administrators is how to verify and process that information.

The problem is no small one. According to the Congressional Budget Office’s predictions some 18.5 million people will have to prove they meet the requirement every year once the legislation is implemented in all states. And those individuals will also have to prove their status once every six months. That will create an avalanche of data for authorities to sort and verify on a rolling basis. At present, they have little information about where to begin.

Robert Gordon has overseen data administration work on a huge scale in the past, having served as director of the Department of Health and Human Services for the State of Michigan during the COVID pandemic, as well as assistant secretary for financial resources at the U.S. Department of Health.

Gordon said at the moment there are a “tonne of unanswered questions” about the legislation, so much so that some states may even begin building systems to process the changes without the answers from central government.

The solution is not straightforward but it is clear, Gordon tells Fortune: “[Government officials] need to enable and encourage states to access the flexibilities that are in the law. Doctor Oz has talked about how they’re going to provide technology that enables simple and easy verifications for both individuals and states. He should be good to his word, simple as that.”

The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services did not immediately respond to Fortune’s request for comment.

What does this mean for consumers?

From her experience, Siegel has her suspicions about what happens next: “[Government] will try and build websites to do this, and I think there’s a good chance those web builds don’t work. When the websites break down, people call, when call centers are understaffed which they are likely to be, wait times are super long.”

“And when you can’t get through, you’re eight months pregnant and you want be covered by Medicaid, you call, your partner calls, your parents call, your grandparents, all start to call. That’s how these call centers go. People can’t get through, and so they show up at the local office and there’s a line around the block.  Unfortunately I’ve been through these situations—not in a Medicaid context—and the customer service has been really poor while we’ve been trying to work through it. The staff have mandatory overtime which gets cancelled, they’re yelled at for a bunch of hours a day, and the attrition goes up.”

So begins a “vicious spiral” of overstretched staff trying to sift through millions of queries—some from individuals who simply no longer qualify for cover.

According to a research letter published in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) some 7.6 million people will become uninsured by 2034 because of the changes to the Medicaid policy.

Countering criticisms that cuts to Medicaid would leave vulnerable people out in the cold, Dr. Mehmet Oz—the administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services—told a Politico podcast: “Every great people takes care of their most vulnerable, and we’re a great nation. We’re gonna do that. So there’s a lot of sensitivity about being accused, accused of not taking care of people who have disabilities or seniors without money or children.”

“I’m trying to save Medicaid,” he added. “That’s the president’s goal as well. He said over and over again, he wants to love and cherish these programs and we need to keep them viable.”

Gordon’s fear is that families and individuals simply don’t have the time or capacity to organize their coverage under the new scheme, saying: “People are very busy, they have a lot of strain in their lives, they have a lot of things to worry about that arise organically in their jobs and their families in their everyday lives and I think a good philosophy of government is not to add add to those burdens and those challenges, but that’s not the philosophy of this bill. 

 “And so, I I think there’s going to be a lot of of inevitable breakage, and it will be the job of government to minimize that breakage.”

Of course, the headache consumers may be barreling toward is not of the Trump administration’s volition alone. Some may argue that previous admissions could have invested and developed systems to improve the Medicaid service, meaning the OBBB would not pile more strain on an already stretched system.

“There’s a moment here for ‘State,'” Gordon, a visiting fellow at Georgetown University, added. “There is a moment for governors to step up and try not only to minimize coverage loss, but also to modernize, and that’s very hard to do because the most natural thing will be to pour new wine into old vessels.”  

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税法改革 Medicaid 行政效率 用户服务 政府管理
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