Fortune | FORTUNE 07月22日 22:35
The AI boom is now bigger than the ’90s dotcom bubble—and it’s built on the backs of bots, maybe more than real users
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机器人(bots)已成为互联网生态的重要组成部分,其数量激增并渗透到各种在线活动中。它们不仅模仿人类行为,还能自动化执行重复性任务,深刻影响着互联网的运作方式。根据Imperva的报告,机器人流量已占全球互联网流量的一半以上,其中“不良机器人”更是造成了大量的恶意活动,如生成虚假点击、页面浏览量和用户会话,从而虚高了网络分析数据,扭曲了转化率、平均会话时长等关键指标。此外,机器人还可能被用于夸大用户注册量和应用下载量等“虚荣指标”,误导投资者对公司价值的评估。这种机器人驱动的指标膨胀,正悄然推高科技和人工智能领域的投资泡沫,其规模甚至可能超过90年代的互联网泡沫。

🤖 机器人流量已成为互联网的主导力量,根据Imperva的数据,机器人占据了全球互联网流量的半壁江山,其中“不良机器人”更是占比高达20%,它们通过生成虚假数据(如点击、页面浏览量、用户会话)来人为抬高网络分析指标,从而扭曲了企业的关键绩效数据,如转化率和平均会话时长。

📈 机器人被广泛用于夸大“虚荣指标”,例如用户注册量和应用下载量,这些数据往往是自我报告且未经独立审计的。投资者在评估公司价值时严重依赖这些指标,因此机器人带来的虚假或膨胀的数据会严重误导他们,导致对企业真实业务实力的判断失准。

💡 机器人驱动的指标膨胀可能正在助长人工智能领域的投资泡沫。当公司报告快速的用户增长和参与度时,投资者蜂拥而至,但若这些增长很大程度上是由机器人驱动的,那么这种繁荣可能只是虚假的繁荣,市场环境与90年代的互联网泡沫时期相似,炒作和膨胀的指标掩盖了真实的业务基本面。

⚖️ 为应对机器人带来的乱象,政府正在加强监管。例如,美国联邦贸易委员会(FTC)已禁止虚假和AI生成的消费者评论,并对购买、销售或传播虚假评论的行为处以民事处罚。国会通过的BOTS法案(Better Online Ticket Sales Act)则专门针对绕过购票系统进行抢票的机器人。

🔍 未来,随着机器人驱动的指标被揭露,那些依赖虚假用户数据的公司估值可能会下降,而拥有真实、可持续用户增长的公司将更具竞争力。市场对第三方验证用户和参与度数据的需求将增加,同时对更强大的机器人检测和过滤技术的需求也将随之增长。

We’ve all had that uncanny moment when we realize we’ve been talking to “someone” online when we realize it’s a robot responding. Long before the release of ChatGPT mainstreamed the act of talking to “bots” on the internet, non-human accounts were all over the web. MIT computer scientists invented ELIZA in 1966, to simulate conversations with a real human being. Microsoft users met “Clippy” almost exactly three decades later. Despite some users’ unlikely vitriol for the anthropomorphic paper clip, much more malicious bots became obvious to users in the years to come on social media, especially on Twitter in the chaotic election season of 2016.

But the bots are still with us. Officially defined as software applications that run automated, repetitive tasks, bots are still swimming in the digital ether, and they’re a key aspect of the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution that is threatening to undo the internet as it’s been known since the mid-1990s.

The catch is that the surge in bot activity is not just disrupting web traffic—it may also be inflating the internet economy by distorting the very metrics that drive tech company valuations. Automated bots now make up more than half of global internet traffic. Bots surpassed human-generated activity for the first time in 2024, according to Imperva, a subsidiary of cybersecurity giant Thales. Imperva, which issues a “Bad Bot report,” found that almost 50% of internet traffic comes from non-human sources, with 20% of that being so-called “bad bots,” prone to a host of malicious activities.

For example, bots generate fake pageviews, clicks, impressions, and user sessions, all of which inflate top-line web analytics data. This distortion directly impacts metrics including conversion rates, average session duration, and the like. Cybersecurity firms, which admittedly may be talking their book to some extent, claim that ad fraud bots also click on pay-per-click ads or simulate user activity, causing companies to pay for traffic and conversions that never represent real humans. They put the damage at hundreds of billions of dollars per year around the global internet.

Also, consider the startups that showcase “vanity metrics” such as raw user sign-ups or app downloads, many of which can be (and often are) pumped up by bot traffic. These statistics are sometimes self-reported and rarely audited independently. Investors rely on all of these metrics—and more—to assess company value, so fake or inflated data can misrepresent underlying business strength.

Consider the investors that are pumping money into bot-boosted business models, and then consider the wisdom of Torsten Slok, the widely read chief economist for Apollo Global Management, who is known for shaking the financial community with his brief charticles in his “Daily Spark.” He recently posted an eye-popping chart, based off his calculations that “the difference between the IT bubble in the 1990s and the AI bubble today is that the top 10 companies in the S&P 500 today are more overvalued than they were in the 1990s.” In other words, if the AI trade is a bubble, it’s a bigger bubble than the one that popped in the days of the “dotcom crash,” leading to a nasty recession. Slok didn’t address the bot question, but it lends further seriousness to the debate: what if the current AI boom is built on the backs of bots?

https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/ai-stocks-arent-in-a-bubble

Bots and bubbles

This bot-driven inflation may be feeding into a broader tech and AI investment bubble. As companies report rapid user growth and engagement, investors chase the next big thing, and result is a market environment reminiscent of the dot-com era, where hype and inflated metrics risk overshadowing real business fundamentals.

Consider the story of the unicorns: Silicon Valley’s term for private firms with $1 billion-plus valuations. From just a few dozen in 2013, when venture capitalist Aileen Lee coined the term to stress their rarity, unicorns have become anything but. The numbered over 1,200 by 2025, according to Founders Forum, an organization committed to connecting entrepreneurs. Surges in unicorn formation accompanied the “easy money” era of 2018 and 2021, when the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates to nearly unprecedented levels and venture capital money chased risky investments, seeking yield. The money in VC has since largely gravitated to AI, a deeply ironic turn of events.

History suggests that markets eventually correct when reality catches up to inflated expectations. Several factors point to a similar reckoning for AI and the bot problem. Recognition of fake metrics is one. As awareness grows about the scale of bot-driven inflation, investors and analysts could grow more skeptical of headline user numbers and engagement stats. New regulations are beginning to address the economic incentives behind bot-driven manipulation.

Regulating bots on the internet has become a critical focus for governments in response to their growing presence in commerce, social media, and consumer interactions. Bots can be used for both legitimate and malicious purposes: assisting with customer service, but also spreading misinformation, generating fake reviews, scalping tickets, or manipulating public opinion. The U.S. government mainly does this through the Federal Trade Commission (FTC).

What the government is trying to do about it

The FTC is the leading federal agency addressing deception and unfair practices involving bots, especially those affecting consumers and commerce. In 2024, the FTC issued a final rule prohibiting fake and AI-generated consumer reviews and testimonials, which applies to both traditional and AI-powered bots that generate misleading content or endorsements online.

Businesses can also face civil penalties for buying, selling, or disseminating fake reviews or endorsements, whether authored by bots or humans. The rule aims to ensure transparency in online marketplaces and curb deceptive practices.

From Congress, there’s the BOTS Act (Better Online Ticket Sales Act), enacted in 2016 and strengthened by executive order in 2025, that specifically targets the use of automated bots to circumvent controls on ticket purchases for concerts and events, often used by scalpers. The FTC enforces this law, which makes it illegal to use bots to bypass security or purchasing limits when acquiring event tickets. This could be thought of as the “Taylor Swift” law, as fans found, to their displeasure, during her record-setting Eras Tour when new tickets disappeared in seconds, gobbled up by bots.

The FTC also regularly issues business guidance calling for transparency and accuracy about AI chatbots and avatar services, warning against misleading consumers through these technologies. The agency advises companies to clearly disclose when users are interacting with bots, ensure bots do not misrepresent capabilities, and avoid using bots to manipulate or deceive consumers.

Some states, such as California, have passed laws requiring bots to identify themselves when attempting to influence a voter or consumer. Other states have introduced similar bills modeled after California’s “Bolstering Online Transparency Act,” though federal preemption and cross-border challenges remain.

What to watch for

As bot-driven metrics are exposed, companies with inflated user numbers may see their valuations fall, especially if they can’t demonstrate real, sustainable growth. The market may consolidate around companies with proven, human-driven engagement and revenue, while those reliant on artificial metrics struggle or fail. Expect increased demand for third-party verification of user and engagement data, as well as more robust bot-detection and filtering in analytics.

Then again, bots have been a feature of computing for over half-a-century and they’ve just grown more and more plentiful over time. Bot-driven inflation of internet statistics may just become an inevitable part of digital life.

For this story, Fortune used generative AI to help with an initial draft. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing. 

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机器人 AI泡沫 互联网经济 数据造假 虚荣指标
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