Fortune | FORTUNE 10小时前
Budget office confirms that Trump’s tax law will add $3.4 trillion to deficits
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美国国会预算办公室报告称,特朗普政府的税收和支出法案将在2034年前使联邦赤字增加3.4万亿美元。该法案还可能导致1000多万人失去医疗保险。共和党人认为该法案能降低税收,促进经济增长,并抵消赤字。然而,民主党人批评该法案加剧了不平等,并指责其背叛了公众。尽管存在争议,该法案也包含一些对医疗补助的调整,例如为农村医院设立500亿美元的基金。

💰 新税法预计将增加联邦赤字:根据国会预算办公室(CBO)的最新报告,特朗普总统的税收和支出法案预计将在未来十年内(至2034年)增加3.4万亿美元的联邦赤字,这比之前的预测略有增加,反映了共和党在最终确定立法过程中所做的调整。

🏥 医疗保险覆盖范围受影响:该法案预计将导致到2034年超过1000万人失去医疗保险,尽管这比早期预测的1180万人有所改善。这反映了法案中对医疗补助(Medicaid)等项目支出的削减,包括对已扩展医疗补助的受益人设定新的工作要求。

⚖️ 争议与政治对峙:该法案的公布正值立法斗争的结束,但也是一场更长远政治斗争的开始。两党在法案对经济、医疗保健和政府项目的影响上存在分歧。共和党人将其宣传为全民减税,而AP-NORC的民意调查显示,近三分之二的美国成年人认为新税法将有利于富人,民主党人则对此法案提出批评。

📈 经济增长与财政影响的辩论:共和党人坚称,该法案对确保大多数美国人不会面临大幅增税至关重要,并相信经济增长将超过CBO的预测,从而抵消预计的赤字。然而,非党派财政监督机构指出,尽管短期内经济可能出现“兴奋感”,但任何持续的经济变化很可能只会带来适度的益处,甚至可能是负面的,并且没有任何严肃的估计表明该法案会改善财政状况,反而认为经济增长效应很可能被更高的债务和利率所抵消。

🏥 医疗补助调整与对农村医院的支持:值得注意的是,该法案通过医疗部分产生了超过1万亿美元的赤字节余。为了争取支持,法案对医疗补助进行了一些晚期调整,其中包括为农村医院设立一个500亿美元的基金,以解决部分选区代表的担忧。

President Donald Trump’s tax and spending law will add $3.4 trillion to federal deficits through 2034, the Congressional Budget Office reported Monday, a slight increase in the projection that takes into account the final tweaks that Republicans made before getting the legislation over the finish line.

More than 10 million people will be uninsured under the law in 2034 because of the law, CBO found, an improvement from an earlier projection that found 11.8 million people losing coverage over the decade.

The release of the CBO analysis Monday comes at the end of a grueling legislative fight, but at the start of a longer political struggle to come as the two parties clash over the law’s impact on the economy, healthcare and government programs. Republicans are touting the bill as a tax cut for all Americans, yet a recent AP-NORC poll found about two-thirds of U.S. adults expect the new tax law will help the rich as Democrats attack the legislation.

The bill Trump signed into law on July 4 extended current tax rates for individuals that were set to expire at the end of this year and temporarily created new tax deductions for tips, overtime and auto interest loans for new vehicles assembled in the U.S. Republicans also used the bill to cut future spending on Medicaid and food assistance, and to phase out certain clean energy tax credits more quickly.

Democrats were quick to highlight the CBO’s findings.

“Today’s report reminds us of something: facts are stubborn and the facts are clear,” said Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer. ”The big, ugly betrayal is a loser for the country and will be a loser for the Republicans.”

Republicans say the bill was critical to ensure most Americans didn’t experience a significant tax increase next year. Trump and Republicans have also insisted that economic growth will exceed the CBO’s projections for the next decade, erasing the projected deficits as more revenue comes into the Treasury than anticipated.

Nonpartisan fiscal watchdogs also highlighted the CBO’s latest projection. Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, said there will be a shorter-term “sugar high” as stimulus makes its way through the economy. But modelers from across the ideological spectrum agree that any sustained economic changes are likely to be modestly beneficial, or negative.

“And not one serious estimate claims this bill will improve our fiscal situation,” MacGuineas said. “Rather, positive growth effects are likely to be swamped by the effects of higher debt and interest rates.”

The CBO said more than $1 trillion in deficit savings is generated through the health portions of the bill, which includes new work requirements for certain Medicaid beneficiaries in states that expanded the program through the Affordable Care Act.

Some late changes on Medicaid were made to the bill to win over holdouts. One of those changes added a $50 billion fund for rural hospitals.

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特朗普税改 联邦赤字 医疗补助 国会预算办公室 经济政策
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