Fortune | FORTUNE 07月21日 20:01
Porsche CEO seeks fresh cost cuts, warning business model ‘no longer works’ in post-Trump, new China world
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德国汽车制造商保时捷正经历几十年来最严重的危机。公司CEO向员工透露,为应对利润率下降,将与工会就第二轮成本削减计划展开谈判,这可能导致在2029年前再裁员3900人。销售下滑,尤其是在中国市场,以及电动汽车采用率放缓,都给保时捷带来了巨大挑战。高昂的电动汽车研发和制造成本,以及美国市场因美元疲软和关税政策带来的压力,进一步加剧了公司的困境。预计公司运营利润率将大幅下滑,股价也已大幅下跌,管理层正在进行重大调整以应对危机。

🚗 **业务模式面临严峻挑战,利润率大幅下滑**:保时捷CEO奥利弗·布鲁姆承认,公司维持了数十年的商业模式已不再适用,当前商业环境急剧恶化。与燃油车相比,电动汽车的利润率远低于预期,这直接影响了保时捷的整体盈利能力,管理层预计运营利润率将从去年的14.1%降至6.5%-8.5%,甚至可能更低,远低于2008-09年金融危机期间的水平。

🇨🇳 **中国市场销量锐减,电动汽车转型受阻**:中国市场作为保时捷的重要销售区域,上半年销量暴跌28%,创下十一年新低。激烈的价格战,尤其是在电动汽车领域,对品牌造成了严重冲击。保时捷曾寄望到2030年电动汽车占总销量80%,但目前看来这一目标难以实现,且电动汽车的生产成本和利润率远不及燃油车,使得向电动化转型的战略面临巨大压力。

🇺🇸 **美国市场受美元汇率及关税政策影响**:尽管美国市场需求强劲,但美元对欧元的大幅贬值以及美国政府的关税政策,给依赖出口的保时捷带来了沉重打击。CEO指出,即便在美国市场销量创纪录,公司也面临巨大的财务压力,这进一步加剧了其在全球范围内的经营困境。

📉 **股价大幅下跌,公司进行高层人事调整**:受业绩下滑和市场担忧情绪影响,保时捷股价今年以来已下跌29%,2022年上市的股票持有者面临近50%的亏损。在此关键时刻,保时捷正进行大规模管理层变动,包括财务、销售、人事和采购等多个核心部门的新C-suite高管上任,以期重塑公司领导力,应对当前危机。

Once the envy of the entire German auto industry, Porsche is drifting deeper and deeper into its biggest crisis in decades.

In a letter to employees, the manufacturer of the iconic 911 sports car informed its 36,700 domestic workforce it would enter negotiations with the IG Metall trade union over a second package of cost cuts designed to protect profit margins.

The latest reductions are expected to come on top of the already 3,900 job cuts planned in Germany through 2029, designed to shrink the company’s cost base to reflect a world where the brand sells only 250,000 cars annually instead of the 311,000 achieved last year.

Chief executive Oliver Blume, who splits his time running both Porsche and its majority owner Volkswagen Group, warned staff that they would have to gird themselves for difficult times to come. 

“Our business model that sustained us over many decades no longer is functioning today in its current form. Business conditions have deteriorated massively within a short period of time,” Blume warned his employees in comments obtained by Fortune. They were first reported on Friday by the German media.

He cited a pair of related contributing factors, starting with China, where first-half vehicle sales plunged 28% to their lowest level in eleven years amid a brutal price war, particularly for EVs. The brand had once sold 95,700 cars there in 2021, an all-time record—at its current pace, it would be lucky to get half that result this year.

This bled into another issue: a slowdown in the adoption rate of its EVs. Now it no longer expects an 80% share of its volumes to come from fully-electric cars by 2030 as realistic, preferring not to give a forecast any longer.

This, however, heavily impacts Porsche and its supplier base, given the investments already made in new products like the electric Macan.

“On the one hand we need EVs to fulfil regional CO2 regulations,” Blume wrote, “but on the other the profit margins are far below those of our combustion engine cars.” 

Trump a double disaster for Porsche — weak dollar, high tariffs

He didn’t stop there, though: without actually mentioning Trump by name, the Porsche CEO said the U.S. poses its third major problem. 

Demand there ironically has never been better, and yet it is suffering under the combined weight of the current administration’s economic policies.

These have sparked a sharp decline in the U.S. dollar versus the euro that, together with its punitive regime of tariffs, darkens the outlook for the export-reliant carmaker.

“Despite a delivery record in the first year, we are under enormous financial pressure,” he admitted, referring to the U.S. market. 

The result is a company whose operating margin is currently forecast by management to shrink to between 6.5% and 8.5% from 14.1% in 2024. Even during the dark days of the 2008-09 global financial crisis, Porsche’s sports car business could still maintain an operating return on sales in the double digits. 

“A further profit warning with Q2 results seems likely,” wrote UBS, estimating Porsche’s operating margin could be guided down to 5%-7% given current guidance only includes the effects from U.S. tariffs for the months of April and May.

Once the world’s third most valuable carmaker after Tesla and Toyota, Porsche shares lost 29% so far this year. Anyone who poured money into Porsche’s September 2022 public offering of stock—Europe’s largest in over a decade—is currently sitting on losses short of 50%. 

At the same time that Porsche is facing its biggest crisis in decades, the company is also in the process of overhauling half its senior management team with four new C-suite executives in charge of finances, sales & marketing, personnel, and procurement.

The company confirmed the tenor of the letter, but declined to comment further.

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保时捷 汽车行业 电动汽车 成本削减 市场挑战
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