Fortune | FORTUNE 07月21日 18:54
Why writing off Apple’s Tim Cook could be a classic CEO succession mistake
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文章探讨了在快速变化的商业环境中,尤其是在人工智能浪潮下,对领导者进行评估时应持有的审慎态度。作者以苹果CEO蒂姆·库克为例,强调其在任期间将苹果市值从3500亿美元提升至3万亿美元,并在服务、可穿戴设备等领域取得显著成就。文章警示,过早地低估或替换一位有 proven track record 的领导者,可能因忽视其运营纪律和战略耐心而带来风险。文章还引用了高盛CEO大卫·所罗门成功度过危机、实现转型的案例,说明给予经验丰富的领导者调整和适应的空间至关重要。文章提醒,在AI带来的变革时期,更应看重领导者在动荡时期的应变能力,而非仅仅追求新承诺。

🚀 领导力的真正价值体现在应对颠覆和变革的能力上,而非仅在平稳的市场中导航。文章指出,苹果CEO蒂姆·库克在任期间,成功将公司市值大幅提升,并拓展了业务版图,这证明了他卓越的领导才能。然而,在AI技术快速发展的当下,过早否定或替换这样一位 proven leader,可能导致失去其长期积累的运营纪律和战略耐心,从而对公司发展造成不利影响。

💡 经验丰富的领导者在危机中展现出的韧性和适应性是宝贵的资产。文章以高盛CEO大卫·所罗门为例,说明了即使在面临内部不和与战略失误的报道时,他依然能够通过调整策略、聚焦核心业务,最终带领公司实现有意义的转型。这表明,在关键时刻选择给予现有领导者机会去克服挑战,往往比仓促更换更能带来长远的回报。

🔮 盲目追求内部继任者或新的领导者存在潜在风险,尤其是在快速变化的行业和高期望的市场环境中。文章分析,新的CEO需要时间来证明自己,并从零开始制定AI战略,这在任何情况下都是一项艰巨的任务。对于像苹果这样拥有独特文化和高投资者期望的公司而言,这一过程可能加剧内部摩擦,并导致战略方向上的模糊。

📈 在AI时代,评估领导者应着眼于其在动荡时期的重塑能力,而非仅仅基于其过往的成功。文章强调,过早地忽视一位领导者在应对变革中的能力,可能会用未经验证的承诺来牺牲掉已有的成就。因此,给予能够适应并再次交付成果的成熟领导者“跑道”,可能是一种更明智的策略,尤其是在他们过往表现优于预期的情况下。

Yet for fast-rising executives watching closely, a cautionary tale is unfolding—one that underscores how easy it is to undervalue a proven leader, especially during moments of upheaval.

Since taking over in 2011, Cook has transformed Apple’s market cap from $350 billion to over $3 trillion, expanding its dominance well beyond the iPhone into services, wearables, and new hardware categories. To dismiss that track record—especially with AI’s full impact still materializing—is shortsighted. A hasty leadership change risks severing the operational discipline and strategic patience that have kept Apple atop the Fortune 500 for over a decade.

Recent history offers a telling parallel. Just a few years ago, Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon was written off as a corner office misfit, dogged by reports of internal discord and strategic blunders. His exit was assumed by some to be imminent. Instead, Solomon stayed, course-corrected, and led a meaningful turnaround, refocusing on core businesses like asset management while exiting failed bets. The bank’s rebound is a sharp reminder that ditching a promising leader mid-course can cost companies the payoff of a hard-earned comeback.

Some see internal successors as Apple’s answer, but that, too, carries its own risks. A new CEO would need to prove themselves both inside and outside the company while crafting an AI strategy from scratch. That’s a tall order even in stable conditions. At Apple, with its fiercely protective culture and sky-high investor expectations, it’s a recipe for internal friction and strategic drift.

The mark of great leadership isn’t the ability to navigate smooth markets; it’s recalibrating through disruption. Dismissing that ability too soon risks sabotaging a history of proven wins for an unproven promise of change.

As Solomon’s case at Goldman shows, leadership redemption is possible, and sometimes the savvier move is giving seasoned leadership the runway to adapt and deliver once again. While Cook’s stewardship will almost certainly need to evolve (and quickly), betting against a leader who has repeatedly outperformed expectations could be a costly mistake in the long run for Apple.

Ruth Umoh
ruth.umoh@fortune.com

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领导力评估 企业战略 AI时代 蒂姆·库克 战略调整
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