摩根大通发布了对OpenAI的首次覆盖报告，指出其在AI领域拥有强大的先发优势和用户基础，有望主导一个价值超过7000亿美元的市场。报告提及OpenAI的应用程序用户量已超5亿，并在印度等市场超越谷歌。然而，报告也强调了OpenAI高昂的“情绪化支出”，包括人才争夺和巨额研发投入，预计未来四年将烧掉460亿美元现金，且盈利可能要到2029年。此外，公司在人才吸引上面临激烈竞争，以及AI模型同质化带来的“脆弱护城河”风险，这些都可能考验投资者的耐心。

🌟 OpenAI的市场潜力巨大，摩根大通预测其到2030年可能主导一个价值超过7000亿美元的市场。其应用程序的用户活跃度极高，在全球AI应用下载量中占据重要份额，并在印度等关键市场成功超越了谷歌，显示出强大的网络效应和用户黏性。

💸 OpenAI面临巨大的现金消耗，预计未来四年将烧掉460亿美元。尽管这笔支出在公司近期融资的背景下被认为是“可承受的”，但盈利可能要到2029年才能实现，这无疑会对投资者的耐心构成考验。

🤝 人才竞争是OpenAI面临的一大挑战，尤其是在AI领域。Meta等公司正积极挖角顶尖人才，甚至提供超过1亿美元的薪酬。OpenAI有70%的新招聘人才来自Meta，这反映了AI人才争夺战的激烈程度，也可能推高OpenAI的人力成本。

🚀 摩根大通认为OpenAI有机会通过硬件设备拓展收入来源，这得益于其对Jony Ive创业公司的收购。OpenAI品牌的硬件有望带动“飞轮效应”，促进更具盈利能力的软件支出，并进一步巩固其市场地位。

🛡️ OpenAI的“护城河”可能并不稳固。摩根大通指出，当前AI模型的性能趋于同质化，拥有“最好的AI模型”并非一个可持续的竞争优势，因为竞争对手很快会跟进。这要求OpenAI持续创新以保持领先地位。

JPMorgan analysts wrote that OpenAI's 'vibe spending' may test investor patience.JPMorgan was cautiously optimistic about OpenAI making money from its vast and growing user base.The note marks JPMorgan's first-ever coverage of a private company, underscoring OpenAI's influence.

OpenAI could test investors' patience over what JPMorgan analysts called "vibe spending" on talent wars and research.

OpenAI could dominate a market worth over $700 billion by 2030, the analysts wrote in a note published Friday. The bank was cautiously optimistic on OpenAI's efforts to make money from its vast user base by selling everything from AI agents to an eventual hardware device.

The note, written by analysts Brenda Duverce and Lula Sheena, provides interesting insights into JPMorgan's assessment of OpenAI's biggest advantages and weaknesses.

The mere existence of JPMorgan's note on OpenAI is news by itself. JPMorgan has one of the largest and best-known research outfits on Wall Street, and like other firms, it only analyzes public companies. The OpenAI note marks the first time JPMorgan has covered a private one and is a sign of how powerful OpenAI has become as a bellwether for AI.

OpenAI is burning lots of cash

The bank wrote that OpenAI may burn through $46 billion in cash over the next four years, though it views that amount as "tenable" given the company raising $57 billion over the last two and a half years.

JPMorgan's analysts said that with profitability not expected until 2029, investor expectations would be "tested."

One factor driving that spend is the "mounting difficulty" in obtaining and retaining top talent for AI companies, JPMorgan wrote, particularly with the launch of Meta's superintelligence lab and news reports about some star researchers getting poached for well over $100 million. Notably, 7 out of the 10 new hires initially announced by Meta for its team came from OpenAI.

OpenAI could benefit from a key acquisition

JPMorgan said OpenAI has a strong first-mover advantage. Its app, for example, surpassed 500 million weekly active users this spring and represents over 70% of total AI app downloads globally in markets that it competes in. In one critical consumer market, India, OpenAI's growth has already displaced Google's, JPMorgan said.

These powerful network effects are useful for generating subscriptions, advertising dollars, and selling AI agents to enterprises.

OpenAI could also generate revenue from building a hardware device, thanks to its $6.5 billion acquisition of Jony Ive's startup earlier this year. JPMorgan said both have promising revenue potential, with OpenAI-branded hardware driving a "flywheel effect" of more profitable software spending.

Finally, JPMorgan said OpenAI faces some risk from the fact that AI models perform pretty similarly these days. The bank views OpenAI's models as an "increasingly fragile moat."

"In conclusion, we do not believe that having the 'best AI model' is a robust enough moat or differentiating factor as competitors will follow suit soon after," JPMorgan wrote.

OpenAI and JPMorgan didn't immediately respond to requests for comment.