Fortune | FORTUNE 07月20日 03:13
Quantum computing is so fire — No, seriously. BofA says it could be humanity’s biggest breakthrough since the discovery of fire 
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量子计算被誉为自发现火以来人类最伟大的革命,它有望通过处理复杂计算实现指数级的人类知识和发展飞跃。该技术能够创造新药物、材料,延长寿命,并增强加密和物流。同时,量子计算还能与人工智能相互促进,加速AI发展至超级智能水平。尽管谷歌已在量子计算领域取得重大进展,如在短时间内完成传统超级计算机需数十年甚至更长时间的计算,但目前尚未有量子计算机解决实际问题优于经典计算机。量子比特的“噪声”问题仍是挑战,专家预测其成熟尚需时日。此外,量子计算的“量子竞赛”对全球地缘政治、技术和经济格局也将产生深远影响。

🔬 量子计算的颠覆性潜力:分析师将量子计算的进步与人类发现火相提并论,认为它能以零时间处理无限复杂计算,极大地加速人类知识和发展,可能改变从新药研发到加密技术的方方面面。

🤝 AI与量子计算的协同进化:量子计算有望“涡轮增压”人工智能的发展,实现人工智能模型训练至“超级智能”水平。反之,生成式AI也能加速量子系统的开发和测试,形成相互促进的良性循环。

🚀 量子计算的里程碑与挑战:谷歌已实现量子处理器在极短时间内完成传统超级计算机需数千年计算的任务。然而,量子计算机目前仍受制于“噪声”问题,易导致计算错误,距离解决实际问题仍有距离,专家预计其广泛应用仍需十余年。

🌍 量子竞赛的地缘政治影响:量子计算的领先者将在地缘政治、技术和经济上获得前所未有的优势。这场“量子竞赛”可能重塑全球力量格局,尤其是在美国目前领先的计算能力方面。

In a recent note on quantum computing, analysts at Bank of America had to reach way back—way, way back—for a comparable advancement in human history.

That’s because the use of subatomic particles to process data offers the potential to leap light year ahead of what’s possible with traditional semiconductor-based electronics.

“This could be the biggest revolution for humanity since discovering fire,” they wrote on Wednesday. “A technology that can perform endless complex calculations in zero-time, warp-speeding human knowledge and development.”

Scientific evidence suggests early humans began using fire in a controlled way hundreds of thousands of years ago, and perhaps even 1 millions years ago.

So how does quantum computing compare to that? Theoretically, there’s no calculation a quantum computer can’t do, BofA said, adding that it could “change everything,” by creating new drugs and materials, increasing longevity, and enhancing encryption and logistics, to name just a few examples.

At the same time, the artificial intelligence revolution that’s also underway could get turbocharged by quantum computing, and vice versa.

“GenAI can help speed up the development and testing time of quantum systems, which could take AI model training to the level of Artificial Super Intelligence,” BofA said.

There have already been major milestones in quantum computing. In 2023, Google said its Sycamore quantum processor completed a calculation in 6 seconds that would’ve taken the top supercomputer 47 years.

And in December, Google said its Willow quantum chip solved a problem in less than five minutes that would’ve taken the world’s fastest supercomputer 10 septillion years (or 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 years).

But a quantum computer has yet to solve a useful real-world problem faster than a classical computer could, BofA pointed out. That’s because qubits, the fundamental units of quantum information, still suffer from too much “noise,” or disturbances that can lead to computation errors.

In January, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said the most exciting developments in quantum computing are more than a decade away.

In March, he sought to temper expectations for quantum computing that somehow it’s “going to be better at spreadsheets.”

Rob Schoelkopf, cofounder and chief scientist of Quantum Circuits, also said at the time that advances in quantum computing would come more gradually instead of in a sudden flip of a switch.

“We’re going to be turning the volume steadily, and we can start to hear the music now, and eventually everyone will be able to hear the music,” he predicted.

Meanwhile, BofA noted that quantum computing has geopolitical implications as well. The technology can level the playing field in overall processing power, which the U.S. currently leads the world in.

“Whoever wins the ‘quantum race’ will gain an unprecedented geopolitical, technological and economic advantage,” analysts said.

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量子计算 人工智能 技术革命 地缘政治
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